One week in. The team is 2-5. Morale is in the crapper, and all the glorious optimism of Spring has already withered and died. Such is baseball. Of course, it is Oakland, (not LA) that sits at 5-2 in first place. April OFTEN creates strangeness -- teams like KC, Tampa, (before they got good), even Pittsburgh sometimes start quickly. They almost always fade before Memorial Day.

Seattle's offense has been dreadful - 14th in OBP, 14th in slugging - (and obviously OPS). A .230/.304/.309 (.612) line isn't going to get it done. But, nobody believes the offense is THIS bad. It was just a bad week. But, when all you've got to go on is small samples, you've still gotta try and assess. The team WILL draw some walks this year. Figgins (4), Bradley (4), Kotchman (3), even Ichiro (3), have all shown patience. But, who had the three HR hitters picked for week 1? Okay, a few people had pegged Bradley as one of the power guys on a team devoid of power guys. But, who had Kotchman and Rob Johnson as the other pair of HR hitters.

Honestly, after a week, the club has only 4 guys on the team with an OPS+ of 100. Gutierrez is hitting 1001 (177), and while he hasn't gone yard, he's got 12 hits including a pair of doubles. But, the team leader in OPS+ is actually Rob Johnson, who is hitting 1205 (226), with a HR and a double as his two hits in his 8 ABs. He's also got three walks and only 3 Ks. Tui is 2 for 5, giving him an .800 oPS (122 OPS+), but shouldn't really count with only 5 PAs. That leaves Kotchman as the only full time starter other than Gutz to be hitting decently. His .227/.308/.455 (.762) line makes a 108 OPS+. But, he's got 2 doubles and a HR in his 5 hits. He also leads the team in RBI with 6, and has three walks and only two Ks.

Of course, one week doesn't a season make, and it would be a mistake to begin lauding Kotchman as an offensive savior based on 26 PAs. But, the knock on Kotchman was that he had no POWER. That perception certainly doesn't seem to match up with his performance thus far. No, he's not going to be blasting 480 foot shots into the stands. But, if he manages a 170 ISO (like 2007), then he's going to be a serviceable 1B.

But, after a week, there is actually only one player that has me genuinely worried: Adam Moore. After a fine Spring Training, his oh-for-April start is very disheartening. It's only 13-PAs, yes. And his 1/3 BB/K ratio isn't horrible. MAYBE it is just bad luck. But, I fear it is actually a young player playing to not screw up. Rob and Tui are ATTACKING pitchers, while my sense is Moore is defending. While I think Moore has greater talent - my sense is Johnson has the (currently) superior frame of mind. If Moore struggles much longer, I think the club HAS to go retrieve Bard before irreperable damage is done.

His heroics aside, I remain convinced that Griffey is on the wrong side of too old - but it makes sense that he'd start quickly, (before the grind wears him down). I also think he's likely to do best in high leverage situations, where the added adrenaline will off-set a bit of his decline. His eye is still fine. His reflexes are waning - so that bottom-of-the-9th rush can help keep him serviceable. If things go well, Sweeney and Junior flop their DH PT - and Sweeney gets it going. No worries about Wilson or Lopez or Bradley (for me) at this point.

As for the pitching? Results aside, Fister is the only starter I'm truly down on, (though I give him major kudos for effort). I just don't think he's actually got the material to survive long in the majors. I'm fine with RRS - and I'm thinking "buy" on Vargas. Snell is shaping up to be a younger, cheaper version of Jeff Weaver. It's not REALLY his stuff that is the root of his problems - it is what is between his ears that has him hamstrung. Then again, Weaver came back after a miserable start - and pitched decently in the second half of his Seattle tenure.

On paper, the run allowance (4.80 ERA - 5.00 R/G) is bad -- 11th in the AL. The team is 12th in K/BB ratio, (though that hardly tells the whole story - as KC is #1 with even worse run allowance, (KC is giving up massive dingers). Seattle's one bright spot is that it has been stingy in the gopher column. But, Seattle is DEAD LAST in DER. .637 (league average is .702) is unsustainably bad. But, the runs allowed is based almost completely on the hits allowed. The .977 fielding percentage only beats Oakland's .970. Basically, they catch almost nothing - and when they do get to it - they drop it.

It may not seem like it looking at them, but the club is horrid PRIMARILY due to its defense, (or lack thereof). And this is where we run into the problem of the basic Voros McCracken tenet that once a ball is in play, the pitcher is no longer at fault. Well, that is true IF the pitchers are all within the range of 'normal' ability for MLB pitchers. Prospects come up - get blown up and vanish all the time w/o ever flirting with a .700 DER. At this writing, only three pitchers for the Ms have allowed fewer hits than innings: Felix, Aardsma and White. Go and look at the bbref team page - and the double-digit H/9 numbers are startling.

Some of that is bad luck. But, K-Tex is giving up 19.3 H/9. League 17.2. Kelley 15.4. Those numbers are double (or more) what they should be. Except for Felix, the rest of the rotation are all between 12 and 15 -- so, it's not just the newbies. These numbers will correct as samples get larger - but the problem is SOOOO widespread, I've gotta wonder if the opposition might have found a 'tell' of some kind with the club that is effectively 'tipping' every pitch. It's only two opponents thus far - but it is enough to make me wonder. The only thing that is certain is the club cannot keep allowing 11 hits a game and expect to not lose 130.

It's likely that most of the abberant numbers will vanish in the next two weeks. I expect the offense to get going as things normalize, and the defense is certainly not as bad as the numbers they are putting up. I remain very nervous about the pen - but hope that with the arrivals of Lee and Bedard in May that this will correct itself in time. But, it is certain that if the Ms defense does not rebound in a HUGE way - moving AT LEAST into the top 5 - that 2010 is going to become a long, painful season.