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It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. Endy Chavez is lost for the season. Wlad Balentien has become the starting left fielder for a team desperate to change its offensive fortunes. This could be the point at which the entire season falls apart and Seattle plummets off its precarious perch or mediocrity into the abyss of suckitude. Then again, it could be the catalyst to a quantum leap forward for a team suffering from the most extreme form of bipolarism this side of Jeckyl and Hyde. The best team in the league at run suppression and worst in the league at run creation has just had a vial of polyjuice potion poured down its throat against its will. Ch-ch-ch changes are a-comin'. What makes this moment particularly intriguing to this demented mind is that it gives me an opportunity to discuss the issue of roster altering dynamics. The typical mindset of the fans, pundits and sabristas is that roster moves are simply about production. If outgoing guy generates 80 runs and incoming guy generates 100, the team is better -- end of story. For me, this is only the beginning of the story. But, the actual individual production difference at a given position is a very small portion of the total production for a team. If you replace Endy Chavez with Ichiro's twin brother - how much of a difference would it actually make? Ichiro, running a mid 800s OPS with Endy below 700 generate RC27 scores of 7.1 and 4.0. That 3.1 difference is based on an ENTIRE lineup of nothing but Endy and nothing but Ichiro. But, you must divide that difference by 9 to get to the real difference (0.34 runs per game). Replacing Endy with another Ichiro would raise the Seattle offense from 3.76 per game to 4.10 per game -- good enough to remain in last place in run production in the AL. The performance of the other 8 players overwhelm the contribution of a single player, no matter how talented. AROD could not turn Texas into a winner, yet Seattle could continue winning without him. This is not accidental. This is common. The production of any SINGLE regular must always be considered secondary to the production of the other eight regulars. This is why there are so many cases where players are lauded as clubhouse leaders, (Jose Guillen), or clubhouse cancers. There was a time when I scoffed at notion of these ideas. But evidence supports them. It is a fact that teams REGULARLY have team-wide explosions or implosions in production, (Seattle '07 and '08 should support that notion). So, what does this have to do with the loss of Endy? It is the reality that WHY a roster change is made is part and parcel to the impact it can have on a team. If a team makes a CHOICE to cut a player or bring one up that sends a message to everyone that has ripples throughout a clubhouse. What would the impact of cutting Griffey have on the current clubhouse? Would everyone just continue producing at their current rates as if nothing happened? How would that impact the way they view the organization? You could argue that it might have a positive effect -- players upping their production out of fear that they might get the boot, also. But, it should be obvious that their would be an EMOTIONAL reaction to such a move. But injuries are another animal. Injuries become a 100% positive matter of choice, whereas replacing an existing player for production deficiency is a choice that is 50/50 positive and negative. You're not just bringing in someone new -- you're getting rid of someone who was part of the clubhouse, and who might have been beloved by any number of guys on the team. Endy Chavez, from all reports, has been a consumate professional. Lacking all star ability, he has clawed out a major league career based on an incredible work ethic while being relagated to the position of #4 OF for most of that career. He's been the antithesis of YuBet. Endy worked hard and never grumbled when his playing time suffered. He didn't grouse to the press when Wlad started getting more playing time -- even after Wlad slumped badly. He was everything the club lacked during the Bavasi era. If you cut a guy like that, you risk reanimating the corpse of entitlement that the club just spent months exercising. But, when a guy like that goes down ... a guy who CARRIED the team offensively during its stunning break from the gate ... that has a very different impact on everyone. It is the kind of moment that can push a club to new levels. Mind you, there are no guarantees. You cannot predict the mass psychological impact of a loss of someone like Endy. But, I believe the psychological impact on the other players has the potential to be MUCH larger than the production impact of whatever player takes his spot. Wlad has been the #4 OF this season with Endy being the starter. Early on, he was hitting well, but when Endy slumped and Wlad got more time, Wlad slumped, also. Going ahead, the dynamic has changed. Wlad wasn't handed the job and told to sink or swim. Wlad has inherited the job through the misfortune of another -- and a player that was by all accounts, highly respected by players and coaches. The environment for Wlad has changed. Whether this is good or bad for him and the team, only time will tell. The point to consider in all of this is not whether Endy's injury turns out to be ultimately good or bad for the team. The particulars are not predictable. Each man will respond to the events according to their own personalities. But, the IDEA that it is not just the change of personnel, but also the REASON for the change in personnel that impacts the rest of the roster that is important to consider. This is a real world example of a move that many had been lobbying for - but the potential fallout from any DFA to impact others is something that gets little attention or consideration. This is the very thing that makes being a real GM or Manager exponentially more difficult than pretending to be one by playing Out of the Park, or some other sim game. Dealing with the human element is the aspect of baseball that the number crunchers and computers lack. Yet, it is the human element that makes sports so enthralling. It is the human element that makes people fall in love with one player and loathe another. It is not just the numbers. It is the human element that makes a fan root for one guy hitting .600 to break out of his slump and start hitting, while simultaneously rooting that another guy batting .600 will slump worse so he can be dumped. Endy is out. Wlad is in. From a numbers standpoint, there is fear that the defense may suffer. There is concern that Wlad is overmatched and cannot adjust to the majors. But, for some, there is hope that Wlad will take that next step, and provide that extra pop the club has been needing. Others are calling for help from the minors -- a prospect platoon in left. The production realities will be revealed in time. But, for me, it is the heart of the team that I am most interested in seeing. Have the lessons of hard work and effort taken root? Will the club, which has seen its DER climb to .702, continue to improve defensively? Will the recent signs of life from Yuni grow as the guilt of his part in the play whisper into his conscience? Or, will the club, absent its defensive mascot, slide back into the bad habits of laziness and complacency the existed before he arrived? My heart tells me that this club thrives on adversity. My head tells me Wak will not allow this club to regress in the wake of recent events. And my gut tells me that this may be the exact best way for Wlad to transition from disappointing prospect to productive starter. Whatever the future holds, there is no doubt at all that the 2009 Mariners have been a major move in the right direction for the franchise. Whether they stumble and fall, or rise and move forward, they have EARNED the respect of the league this year. They also deserve the respect of their fans. Win or lose, they deserve the recognition that not only have they gotten off the mat from a horrid 2008 season, they have repeatedly refused to give up. They have shown the type of heart that the baseball gods reward. |