Two score games ... forty to those born after 1860 ... that marks the one quarter mark of a baseball season. It's a convenient time to pause and reflect and analyze the year so far, and assess the situation for the 3/4 of the year yet to be played. At the quarter pole, where does Seattle stand?

Record: 16-23 (12th) Scoring : 138 (13th) Allowed : 165 (6th) Pythag : 16-23 OPS+ : 84 (13th) ERA+ : 97 (9th) DER : .685 (14th)

The big news of the first quarter is not that the Ms are in (or out) of the race. It is that they have already DFAed Milton Bradley and Ryan Langerhans. Dumping Langerhans is no big deal, but dumping the $12 million still owed Bradley is significant. The decision pretty much solidifies the idea that 2011 is a rebuilding year, since Bradley was the 3rd or 4th best hitter on the team, (depending on which metric one chooses to use) at the time. Calling up a pair of unproven (and generally lightly regarded) prospects is not a move that screams upgrade. The club could've sent Saunders and his 43 OPS+ down for a shot at a better bat. Or, they could've waited for Gutierrez to finish his rehab to make a final decision on Bradley. They did neither. They ended the Bradley experiment and went "all in" with the youth movement, (quality of prospects be damned).

While I applaud the decision, the arrival of Peguero and Mike Wilson demonstrates the limitations of any youth movement. You actually must have youth to make such a strategic change. Wilson is a 28-year-old journeyman slugger while Carlos had barely arrived at AAA. Neither is high on anyone's prospect watch list. Both are considered "pedestrian" gloves, also. My instinct says that Jack went ahead and got rid of the "league average" veterans to PREVENT a "poorly timed" winning streak that would have fans believing in the myth that the club is currently competitive. They aren't. But, it's not easy to sell the reality of the talent on the club, if the club is playing .500 ball. The cynical view is that the 2011 was intentionally sabotaged. The more reasonable assessment is that 2011 was NEVER going to be anything other than a rebuilding year. Bradley and Langerhans were not going to be part of any long term strategy, so better to drop them after confirming the known certainty -- that Ryan, Figgins, Wilson, Saunders, Olivo and Cust were simply not going to have any magically delicious offensive seasons that might lead to an abberently good result.

The ugly truth of the 2011 regulars is that the Wins Above Replacement for these guys is pretty much *ALL* tied up in Smoak. Ichiro has a nominal offensive WAR, but even that is muted, (since his defense has been subpar this season ... and RF is one of the higher offensive standard positions). The club, is essentially, Smoak and 8 replacement level bats. That's not "one or two" moves away from being competitive. That's 7 or 8 moves away.

It is true that the club has a wonderful rotation. Pineda has been everything dreamed of and more. Neither Vargas nor Fister has imploded, (still a legitimate fear with either ... but a waning one). And Bedard, while erratic, has been healthy and has been moving in a positive direction. The bullpen ... well, that's a trickier call. The club has gotten stupdendous "results" from Wright, Pauley and Laffey. League has a few poor outings of late. But, the club has been effectively running with a 4-man bullpen for a month, and the quartet did not allow a HR in the first 38 team games. That's certainly reason for kudos ... but also evidence of the unreality of the performance. Aardsma isn't coming to the rescue. The unavoidable reality of the future is that League will not be the only reliever to allow some HRs this season ... and given the anemic offense, nearly every HR allowed by the bullpen is likely going to prevent a win.

The unfortunate truth for Seattle is that despite the best rotation imaginable and despite completely unsustainable results from the Four Horseman of the Pen-acolypse ... the club *ONLY* has a 97 ERA+ after a quarter of the season. How is that possible? It's because they have the WORST DEFENSE in the AL. DUmping Bradley is likely addition by subtraction. Even 'weak' rookie gloves will likely improve the situation in left. But, Ryan will never be as good as Jack Wilson was at short ... (and Jack Wilson will be gone as soon as Ackley is called up). The current bbref estimate for run "cost" by the Seattle defense is 20 compared to an average defense.

Just a few days back, when the offense brushed up against the 90 OPS+ level, Doctor Detecto opined that Kennedy and LROD supplanting Wilson and Ryan in the infield might boost the offensive fortunes of Seattle to a 95 OPS+. A week later and the veteran outfield has been exchanged for rookies and the team OPS+ is down to 84 again, (and more likely to continue dropping than rebound any time soon). What this means is that the rest of 2011 is likely going to be a horror show. And many fans are going to grouse about the amount of losing. They shouldn't. In the short term, yes, it will hurt. But, 2011 is *FINALLY* the season that should have happened after the 2004 collapse.

The wailing and gnashing of teeth should be about the refusal of the organization to accept the reality of the situation in 2004, (the train was derailed and was NOT going to be 'fixed' by simply putting a fresh coat of Free Agent Acrylic on the caboose). The quality clubs of the late 90s and early oughts were built mostly on a foundation of home grown (drafted) talent, coupled with some savvy trading and FA pick ups here and there to fill in the blanks. But, the club spent the next decade trading away their prospects for 'quick fixes', and in doing so, the entire farm system atrophied. Well, that's not 100% true. The pitching side of things remained competent, producing quality bullpen arms and some decent (if unspectacular) starters, (until Felix came along). But, the last drafted everyday player Seattle got use out of (AROD) was drafted ('93) before Justin Beiber was born ('94).

While Smoak wasn't drafted by the Ms, his first real success is coming in Seattle. Ackley is next in line, and is likely to give the club its first truly home grown talent since AROD. The club gets another top pick this year, and given the current situation is looking to be in the running for another top pick next season. The "highlight" of 2011 is likely going to hinge on whether Captain Jack can spin one of his current SPs into another prospect hall to accellerate the rebuilding process. I suspect Felix and Pineda are safe ... but Bedard, Vargas and Fister are all likely potential trade bait come the deadline. If I am right about that, then this could delay the Ackley arrival, (no need to risk a potential defensive downgrade when you're wanting to spotlight your pitching strength). The defense is already shaky enough that the market value on them won't be quite as high as it might be. But, contenders are ALWAYS looking for pitching upgrades. Jack is likely shopping everyone on the club not named Felix, Pineda or Smoak.

The plus side for the rest of 2011 includes the likely promotion of Ackley, (who is finally starting to add the power back to his hitter template). And it is looking like Carp has fully taken to his new "true slugger" archetype and is no longer a Cust clone, walking 400 times a year. He has 10 HRs in 35 games this year. And the REALLY scary good news about Carp is this ... typically, when hitters lose a large chunk of walk rate when re-tooling a swing or altering their hitting approach ... the loss in walk rate tends to be transient. Over time, it comes back. Carp *was* being too passive. But, he changed his game, has become hyper-aggressive, and it is finally paying off. But ... as he gets experience with the new paradigm, his foundation pitch recognition skills will likely return over time. *IF* Carp can make the transition to the Majors, (never a guarantee), it is likely that over time (a year or two), he'll add the walks back into his template that he surrendered to find his power stroke. He could (potentially) have a year or two of Sexson and then upgrade himself to Abreu (without the SBs).

Mind you, the odds of hitting either of those marks is slim, (well under 50%). But, what I liked about Carp when he was still in the Mets farm system was that he DID show resilience and the ability to adapt. Of course, Ackley and Carp (even if wildly successful in 2011), are not going to be enough to push this team into the playoffs. The club is too far away from being a competitive team. But, if you get a Smoak, Ackley and Carp in place (assume Carp is DHing for the sake of argument), then the ability to plug other holes with FAs becomes much, much easier.

The year to truly hope for something exciting is still likely 2013. But, the change in direction for the organization is slowly becoming visible. It's a long, long way from claiming competence ... but there is reason for optimism in the future.