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It's the All-Star Break, and the Ms were mostly snubbed. Felix gets in, deservedly, and Ichiro is once again carried by the Japanese internet to St. Louis, (though unlike some of his other trips, this one is also deserved). Seattle allowed the fewest runs in the AL, and get only Felix on the staff. Boston was next best, and gets three pitchers, and Detroit, (3rd in runs allowed), gets two. In fairness, Bedard missed too many innings. But, Aardsma earned a trip in about every way possible. But that's life as normal in the great Northwest. As for what is going to happen with the Seattle pitchers in the second half? The biggest question is probably not how will they perform, but where will they be performing. To trade or not to trade, that is the blog-dom. For purposes of this article, I can only assume that the players remain in Seattle, as their fate with any other team will be skewed by too many unknown factors. So, what's on tap for Part Duex? Felix -- Every is convinced Felix has "gotten it", and is therefore going to dominate nearly every game. In truth, Felix hasn't changed much. The big push this season is consistency. He's had one "bad patch" this year. And I've repeatedly beaten the consistency drum. *IF* the consistency remains, then yes, Felix is about to become and All-Star fixture, and a Cy Young annual candidate. But, sorry - you cannot expect a career to be correctly analyzed based solely on the last 9 games. He's still young. He's also very headstrong. At the moment, he is phenomenally comfortable with Johnson catching him. That shouldn't be trivialized, as it has ALWAYS (and continues to be), what's in his head, not in his arm, that determines Felix' production. Since Johnson has continued getting the lion's share of the PT since Joh's return, I think Felix is safe -- and is positioned well for a solid second half. Assuming 15 starts, he'll likely have 10 stellar ones, and five mediocre ones. That'll probably mean a 16 win season, (I'd go 17 or 18, if I had more faith in the bullpen). His ERA is going to rise a bit. But, a 16-8, 2.90 season is very doable. Bedard -- Historically, Bedard has a better WHIP in the 1st half, (1.26 to 1.42), and his career ERA and W/L splits go: 36-20 @ 3.46 in the first half compared to 15-20 @ 4.14 in the second. MANY are going to predict a second half swoon. I, however, believe that most guys pegged as "1st half" pitchers play for bad teams - and it is not the pitcher that swoons, but the defense. Bedard's K/9 per half? 8.7 in the first, 8.8 in the second. When teams are out of the race, defenses get lax. Don't believe me? How about 2008, AL ... first half BABIP = .298; second half = .308. That's for the whole league. Did the whole LEAGUE get lucky? But, with Erik, it all comes down to health. With a team that has a manager almost maniacal about defense, there shouldn't be a second half drop-off in that arena, which means Bedard likely doubles his line: 11-5 ... 2.75. Washburn -- Perhaps the toughest of all projections. He's posting a HR suppression line he hasn't shown since 2002. I'm thinking he's unlikely to keep it up. I'd guess 11-12 with a 3.37 ERA. The spike in ERA mostly wrapped up in one or two bad outings, (probably when Joh is catching due to a Johnson minor injury). Morrow -- I don't think he's ready for prime time. In fact, I think he's MUCH further away from being a legit ace than just about anyone on the web. Sorry, but *NOBODY* survives for long in MLB with a 5.9 BB/9 rating. Doesn't matter how good your stuff is, or how good your mechanics are. It doesn't matter how deceptive you can be if you cannot throw strikes. What happens to many of these guys is the hitters, KNOWING they cannot handle the nasty pitches, just sit and wait for a mistake - and start walking one after the other -- or they get the mistake pitch and splash it. The 6.1 BB/9 and 1.8 HR/9 rates for Morrow are VERY much linked. The hideously ugly truth about Morrow *TODAY* ... he ASPIRES to become Hideo Nomo. Yes, there is all kinds of talent there. But, there's been scant evidence that he's able to harnass that talent in any sustainable way. This is going to be the most unpopular analysis I've ever posted, (in all likelihood). This is a head case squared. Nobody has noticed the way his HR rate has STEADILY climbed since his debut. 0.4 in 2007 (63 innings), 0.8 in AAA 2008 (23 IP); 1.4 in MLB 2008 (64-IP); 1.8 in 46-IP (2009). He's not learning. He's imploding. Frankly, he'd have a better chance at blossoming if his mechanics WERE the problem. I expect a couple of good outings, and a larger number of bad ... and the unfortunate reality that the more he's allowed to pitch in the majors, the greater the chance that he is blamed (and blames himself), for the ultimate slide of Seattle OUT of the playoff race. Sadly, I think by year end, his ERA may be higher than its current 5.28. I truly hope I'm wrong. The upside? Everything I see in Morrow could have been said about Aardsma. But, Aardsma got a fresh start in a new place with a clean slate. I hope that Captain Jack and company can fix him -- but where Aardsma had some mechanical issues to fix, Morrow doesn't. His problems are upstairs, which is where his mistakes are going to continue to land until something magical happens inside his head. 3-10; 5.73 (though I doubt he'll last as a starter the entire second half, so the W/L record is likely too fat). Olson/Vargas -- Each is a guy that could blossom at any moment, but neither has exceptional stuff. These are prototype BOR starters, who can play coin flip baseball if backed up by stellar defense (or a stellar offense). Though Vargas is better numerically, I prefer Olson to be the one that might actually put that last missing piece into the puzzle and turn into a #3 guy instead of a #5. Olson is a year younger, and his minor league line is superior. Specifically, his H/9 (7.3), is WAY better than his K and HR rates would seem to indicate. That suggests to me that he has greater inate deception. Major leaguers are better, of course. He's still adjusting. He's still trying different combos. And his results have shown a REMARKABLE hit rate in the majors, which is doubly stunning when his sky-high (pun intended) HR rate is taken into consideration. I see Olson as a Washburn disciple. Wash fashioned a nice career with great control and a 1 to 1.1 HR rate. Olson is ALREADY doing everything Wash was doing - except the HR rate is off-the-charts bad. But, his HR rate in the minors was only 0.6. He's still learning. I think he's got that (rare) gift that guys like Wash and Moyer have -- the pitchers INSTINCT for location that allows them to pitch to POOR contact, (and just screw with the heads of the BABIP zealots). I think Vargas is the longer shot. He was routinely giving up sky high hit rates in the upper minors. Vargas, I believe, is a true AAAA pitcher, whose best hope for salvation is to become a LOOGY. Olson may yet flame out, but I don't think so. I think Olson was, (like Guttierez), a guy Jack saw something specific about. Olson, I believe, is the guy who eventually snags the #5 slot, 6-7; 4.58 for Olson ... 5-8, 4.81 for Vargas, (though Vargas PT is the one that likely skews the results - as he'll need to steal a bunch of starts from Morrow to stay in the rotation. BULLPEN:
Aardsma: 35 saves; 2.65 ERA (a couple of blowup games, bloat the ERA, but his save percentage remains outstanding). I expect to see a number of minor league arms up during the second half. September is likely going to be tryouts for Spring of 2010 for guys like Fister or Fields, etc. The Mariner bullpen has been EXTREMELY lucky this year. The stellar defense helps. But, let's compare the starters to relievers on several fronts:
Mariners:
League: Normally, relievers have a .3 to .5 edge in ERA, (so this year in the AL is pretty normal). Relievers have better K numbers, (only seen once a game), while they do, as a group, generally have a little worse control. But, the Ms bullpen lacks the typical edge in K/9, (and this gets worse with Morrow moving to the rotation). And the control has been particularly dreadful this season. The bullpen FIP would be even worse if not for some incredible HR suppression by the Ms bullpen. But, even a handful of dingers in the 2nd half could send that FIP skyrocketing. The Ms rotation has been slightly above average for the year, (not league leading, just slightly above average), when looking at K/BB/HR. The bullpen has been slightly below average in Ks, waaaaay below in walks, and have managed to stay only nominally below average by avoiding HRs. Without the top defense in the league, the club would be behind Oakland. Morrow was bipolar in the pen, alternating dominance with dogmeat. His aggregate stats are bad since he's been more Alpo than Atlas. He is CERTAINLY never going to be an elite pitcher if he continues surrendering HRs at a 30-35 per year pace. But, it probably is good to give him a LONG look as a starter, because he's going to need lots of innings if he is going to figure out how to slay the snakes in his head. For the Ms, the second half bullpen situation is looking shaky at best, dire at worst. My hope is that Jiminez AND Cordero come around, or some other help emerges from the farm. As is, the 2nd half bullpen meltdown of 2009 is likely going to make the 2007 swoon look like a walk in the park, (more like 5 walks in the park per game). |