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Question asked -- The "Mendoza Line" (.200 batting average) is used to represent the point beyond which one cannot supply enough defense or intangibles to continue to be a major league hitter. So, is there an ERA limit beyond which pitchers are summarily dismissed? First, let's look at the landscape (2008 AL)
2008 - AL pitchers - 162 IP+; 5.00+ ERA
Millwood -- 5.07 Between 100-162 innings:
Ponson -- 5.04 ** Only 57 pitchers had more than 100 IP in the AL during 2008 ============= First thing to note, the above list captures the worst 14 SPs in the AL for 2008 (that pitched 100+ innings). In theory, these 'should' represent the basic pool of #5 starters. Problem. Only 57 pitchers threw 100 innings in the AL, which would only account the top 4 starters for each team, (plus 1 just to muck up the math). So, in practice, the above list doesn't represent #5 starters -- it actually represents #4 starters. Think about this for a moment. There were only 43 pitchers in the entire AL that threw 100 innings or more and were BETTER than the above guys. This is one of my problems with the concept of "replacement" player when it comes to pitching. For offense, a replacement player is either a player drawn from the bench, (short term), or one of the TOP prospects pulled up from AAA that has likely been playing well, and is hoped to be a long term solution. The reality for pitchers is a lot less easy to summarize. Replacements for starters and relievers are completely different animals. MANY are AAAA pitchers that are brought up to be sacrificial lambs for a couple of games with little expectation of sticking, (as higher rated prospects are bypassed out of fear or caution). Let's take a look at the "extra" starters for the AL Central in 2008. (Using the Central to minimize emotional bias that might arise from examining AL West fill-ins). These are guys who got at least 5 starts, but were not considered to be in the primary five-man rotation for most of the season: Detroit: (Bonderman only started 12 games, while the rest of the rotation were all 30 or more)
Zach Miner: Age-26; 45-G; 13-GS; 4.27-ERA; 118-IP; 46-BB; 62-K; 10-HR; 1.390-WHIP Kansas City: (Hochevar 5.51 and Davies 4.06 got 22 and 21 starts respectively)
Brett Tomko: age-35; 16-G; 10-GS; 6.97-ERA; 60.2-IP; 13-BB; 40-K; 11-HR; 1.53-WHIP Cleveland: (only one starter - Lee - managed 30+ starts - the rotation was a MESS in 2008)
Aaron Laffey: age-23; 16-G; 16-GS; 4.23-ERA; 93.2-IP; 31-BB; 43-K; 10-HR; 1.43-WHIP Minesota: (only Blackburn started 30, though the next 4 went 28, 27, 26, 23 in starts)
F. Liriano: age-24; 14-G; 14-GS; 3.91-ERA; 76-IP; 32-BB; 67-K; 7-HR; 1.39-WHIP
ChiSox: (4 30+ game starters, and Contraras started 20) ==================================== Mostly, this is 24 to 27-year old pitchers auditioning. The Royals were the exception, attempting to plug holes with has beens and never weres. But, the performances were less than impressive. There are 13 pitchers listed above, (just 1 shy of 1 per AL team), from just the Central. The ERA spread? 1.83; 3.12; 3.91; 4.23; 4.27; 4.50; 5.40; 5.60; 5.66; 5.93; 6.04; 6.97; 9.38; The median ERA was 5.40. And not every guy on this list is a tryout. Guys like Westbrook and Liriano, attempting to return from injury make up a portion of mid-year replacements every year. Of course, the small samples can make the ERA numbers deceptive. The 12/15 BB/K ratio for Anthony Reyes hardly supports the 1.83 ERA he turned in. But, remember, we're looking at the landscape, not wanting to disect individual performances. These guys represent 115 starts for the 5 Central teams. THIS is 23 starts per team, and a pretty fair representation of what a #5 in the AL looks like EVERY year for EVERY team. ==================================== The Mendoza line is intended to delineate the point at which you cannot stay a major leaguer. It's NOT the line for being a reserve, a scrub, or a bench guy. Based on all the above, most of the pitchers with an ERA below 6.00 managed to land a job somewhere in 2009. Guys with ERAs above 6.00, it was a different story. Silva has been DLed for the bulk of the season, and Batista relagated to the bullpen. Of course, there are other variables. Rookies and young guns are allowed to struggle, return to the minors to fix problems and then get another shot, (to Morrow, to Morrow, we're waiting for Morrow ...). So, running a 6.00+ ERA isn't a permanent death sentence. But, it does seem to be a temporary one. For 2009, it can be illuminating to view some of the current Central division rotations.
Detroit: Dontrelle (7.49) continues to try and fail to regain his form. So, while nobody WANTS a starter with an ERA above 5.00, the reality is that the majors are chock full of 5.00 ERA starters throwing every 5th day on a regular basis. It's only when the ERA jumps over the 6.00 line that doom is definitely nigh. Of course, if you've got a quartet of fabulous pitchers, posting 4.50 and below ERAs, if you have a number 5 posting a 5.35, you're going to be more apt to try out another guy. That #5 SP is *ALWAYS* going to be vulerable to the next best prospect on the ladder. The Silva-Line ... meaning exceed it, and you're headed to the bullpen, AAA, or home ... 6.00. |