Spring is here, that glorious season when young men's fancies lightly turn to thoughts of romance. Older men get hyped up about baseball. Older men have learned that though she be just as fickle a mistress as the young sirens of Spring, Baseball actively wishes for you to have a beer instead of nagging for you to put it down and clean out the garage. But, just as the dashing young suitor must wait and wonder whether the object of his desire will return his affections, so does the baseball fan.

Truth be told - for the last three years, Mariner fans have been wed to a temptress -- caressing them with wins, then laughing with scorn and rejection, only to fly back into their arms once more. With the additions of Lee, League, Figgins and Bradley, many see a looker in a little black dress and looking oh-so-fine. The question is the same as it is every Spring -- will she deliver? With the 24 win jump in 2009, and the additions of the talent listed above, many believe this is the year Seattle returns to the playoffs. Alas, 'tis not to be. Okay, more accurately, it is not "likely" to be.

The club has an ace, (Lee), a King (Felix), and a Jack (Z). But, the rest of the pitchers are a bunch of Jokers -- (though Seattle's only real shot at the post-season likely requires a Wild Card). The defense should be good. But, the last two defenses to make quantum leaps to #1 (Boston and Tampa), each slipped to 4th the following season. Being in the top 5 in DER means you're good. Being #1 usually means you're good AND lucky. Losing the 2nd most valuable glove off the 2009 squad (Beltre) isn't exactly the textbook methodology for staying on top, even if they did get a solid defensive 3B in Figgins, (who looks to be playing 2B). If/when the Ms slip to 4th in DER, many will complain it was the Fig/Lop Flip-Flop that caused it. Think again. It's hard to be best at ANYTHING. It's even harder to stay best - (just ask the 2010 UNC Tar Heels basketball team about that one).

But, it's not all negative. The club almost certainly has improved their league worst OBP from '09. While better, the offense for 2010 isn't as scary as Smurfette at this point. The bullpen, however, should frighten lots of people, (mostly Ms fans). It's anyones guess as to whether they'll actually frighten the competition. Milton Bradley will mostly just frighten the umpires, (and a handful of fans in the first row).

In 2009, expectations were low. Most "hoped" for 75 wins, a significant improvement over the 61 from '08. The club delivered 85, and there was much rejoicing. Unfortunately, many Ms fans are hoping for 90-95 wins this year. The greater expectations lead to greater initial excitement. But, they also lead to much greater chance for disappointment. The likely outcome for 2010 is another 85(ish) wins, and a bunch of disappointed Ms fans, instead of a bunch of joyous ones. Such is life.

The irony behind all of this is that the ultimate outcome for the Mariners in 2010 may quite likely be exactly opposite of expectations, though this is pretty typical. Whenever expectations (in any venue) are excessive - either high or low - results generally fail to meet those expectations. The Ms were #1 in the AL in DER and ERA. The default assumption by many is that this will happen again. The addition of Cliff Lee and Brandon League help support that notion. The problem here is that the ERA was pushed PRIMARILY by the near-miraculous defensive turn-around. The previous defenses that pulled a similar feat feel to 4th the next season. But, Seattle also let their defensive whiz 3B walk away. They got a solid replacement in Figgins - but NOBODY was suggesting Figgins was as good as Beltre in any previous analyses -- and the Figgins/Lopez flip-flop just complicates matters further.

The truth is - analysts don't have a good handle on defense - and until someone starts making DER projections, you can be safe in assuming that everyone knows their defensive assessments are simply WAGs. While Seattle should be good defensively, (top 5), they are likely to slip some. That will translate to the ERA of every pitcher, even Felix and Lee. This won't turn either CY arm into Jeff Weaver -- but instead of only 5 losses, Felix might suffer 8. If the defense is top 5, and the pitching is about where it was last season, the ERA is going to rise a bit - but will still be near the top of the league - just not #1.

On the flip side, the Ms were last in runs scored, and despite the additions of Bradley and Figgins, the general belief is that going from Branyan to Kotchman (et al) is going to leave the offense just where it was. Here, I believe, the concensus opinion is wrong. The Ms were indeed last in runs scored (640). But, their profile says that scored fewer than they should have. They also had 4 of 9 hitting positions post aggregate OPS figures below .650. That's a near impossible feat to duplicate. The club should gain 50 runs essentially just by taking the field. Another 50 are likely to come from the actual push up where the worst 4 hitters will be hitting closer to .700 than .600. If things break JUUUUST right, the club could add 150 runs this season, and move as high as 6th in run scoring.

My belief is that the club jumps up to 9th or 10th in runs scored, as the offense shows genuine improvement. The pitching and defense take a step back, (but not a big step). The end result being a team that wins 80-85 games, (but whose pythag results track much closer to normal than they did in 2009). I think at the end of April there will be howling about the bullpen. By the end of May, there will be grousing about letting Beltre go, (who will be having a banner year in Boston), while the Ms defense is obviously not quite what it was in 2009. By the end of June, with Bedard in the rotation, optimism will return, and there will be dissension about whether the club needs a big bat or help for the bullpen more if they want to "go for it" with a deadline trade, (and Lopez will suddenly be viewed as a guy that the club cannot even consider trading - as he produces a steady stream of 20-RBI months).

While I've made my predictions ... the 2010 version of the Mariners is one of the most volatile team compositions I can recall. There is certainly potential for a magical 95-win season. There is also potential for a dreadful 70-win season. The hardest part of the season isn't going to be the winning and losing. I think the hardest part will be fretting over Griffey. If he swoons to the point he's posting a sub-.700 OPS (which I think likely), the club is trapped in a situation where it needs to reduce his playing time. But, as the season unfolds, the frustration of carrying a non-productive legend versus the needs of the club in terms of needing production from every source to stay in the playoff hunt will become particularly painful. In 2009, with expectations low, there was no problem enjoying Junior's good days and accepting the bad. But, should he swoon, (and I HOPE he doesn't), in a season with much higher expectations - the dynamic will be very different.

Ultimately, I think 2010 could be a highly enjoyable season if expectations are a bit reserved to begin the year. An "expectation" of a .500(ish) season with a "hope" of better is likely to lead to a more enjoyable viewing experience by Mariners fans. In the end, no one can predict these things. Whether Kotchman explodes with his first ever .900 oPS -- or Ichiro gets hurt and misses 100 games -- there are thousands of events that can twist the current roster reality into something completely unrecognizeable. In the end - whatever will be --- will be.