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Some of my predictions for 2010: (and conclusions after 6 weeks) 1) Since Jose Lopez hit .800(ish) for the last 4 months of 2009, he's finally arrived, and at age 26, will have his best year yet w/o the horridly slow start. (MORON!) 2) Since the club has no power hitters - Jose has earned the cleanup slot. He's got the power, and historically has done a bit better with men on. Positioned behind the Ichiro/Figgy table setters, he'll do well - and have his first 100 RBI season. (MORON!) 3) Kotchman has suffered from career jet lag and is therefore better than his career stats. He should hit .800 for the Ms in 2010. (MORON!) 4) Rob Johnson was just 'getting it' in 2009, when injuries did him in. Healthy now, he'll prove that he's a solid catcher, hitting .700 -- and make it hard for Moore to supplant him. (MORON!) 5) Doug Fister produced more hits than Motown when in AAA. Against MLBers, he's going to be pounded into mulch, and make us WISH Olson (or Feierabend) were in the rotation instead. (MORON!) 6) Ian Snell was just looking for a place to feel good. Give him time to get comfortable, and he'll start showing the magic he used to have. (MORON!) 7) Everyone else is worried about the offense. But, Kotch, Figgy, Bradley, Ichiro, Gutz and Lopez are all reliable 100 OPS+ bats. If they can get decent performances out from SS and Catcher - the club could have a league average offense, (so long as they don't let Griffey get too many PAs). (MORON!) =============== 1) Griffey's BABIP has been swooning for 3 years. He's a year older - and DONE, DONE, DONE. He's likely lost his barely over the wall power - and is going to be lucky to post Ronny Cedeno numbers in 2010. (GENIUS!) 2) Sweeney needs to be the full-time DH (with Griffey only getting the occasional start - until he retires), because he's proven for 5 years that he can't stand upright for 3 hours without needing time on the DL. (GENIUS!) 3) Kelley, while a nice young pitcher, has already shown problems with health and gopheritis. Expectations that he's going to be some kind of great setup guy are wildly optimistic. (GENIUS!) 4) Vargas was an uber-talent who got hurt - but who is just now getting back to where he was 4 years ago. If he stays healthy, he could be a TOR guy. People were way too eager to right him off as a hack. (GENIUS!) 5) Having the Sweeney/Griffey combo in 2009 was nominally reasonable - since it was a straight rebuilding year, and the club wasn't expected to compete. Once again spending two roster spots on fragile, bat-only players, (while adding the oft-missing Bradley), is very bad roster management for a team actually expected to compete. This decision is going to come back and haunt the club in terms of both productivity and lack of lineup flexibility. Wak had his year to get acclimated. THIS season, he needs how to learn to use a bloody pinch-hitter w/o the copout that he doesn't have any available. (GENIUS!) 6) The clubhouse chemistry from 2009 was built not just on WHO was present - but also (in large part) on just how bad the clubhouse was in 2008. Expecting the same magic again, just because Griffey is around ignores the reality that the clubhouse CANNOT get better than last year. (GENIUS!) 7) Everyone else is afraid of the rotation and the offense. I think the rotation is gonna be fine, because they've got about a dozen arms to shuffle throught the 3/4/5 slots until the BIG THREE get going. Gone is the case of having Feierabend and worse as the only options. SOMEBODY will step up - even if several others fail. (GENIUS!) 8) The bullpen in 2009 wasn't nearly as good as people perceive it to be -- leading the AL in losses. The 2010 bullpen doesn't appear much better - and has the potential to be worse. The bullpen could become a major issue for the club in a bad way. (GENIUS!) =============== So, any guesses as to which of the above Genius and Moron conclusions will slosh around over the NEXT 6 weeks? |