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How did Seattle wind up where they are? The worst offensive team in all of baseball (by a wide margin). This is a sad, sad state for the team that holds the record for most wins in a season. It's a sad reality for the team that scored 993 runs in 1996, and socred 907 and 927 in 2000 and 2001, (the last two times the team appeared in the playoffs). It's a sad state for the team that drafted Junior and AROD and made offensive stars out of Edgar and Buhner and Olerud. So, what happened ... and more importantly, how does the team remedy the situation and not repeat it? Well, let's look at those teams of the playoff years - '95 - '01. Four trips to the post-season in 7 years and 4 years scoring 900 or more runs, (though the Ms actually failed to make the playoffs in their record 993 run season, just fyi). Oh, they had some stars -- Junior, Unit, AROD, Edgar, Buhner, Olerud. They had a manager - Piniella. But, look further. 1995: 94, 135, 91, 94, 108, 89, 122, 131, 185 -- that's the OPS+ line of the bbref starters for Seattle. The WORST OPS from the entire lineup was .730 (Vince Coleman). The club was 4th in the AL in OPS and 3rd in runs scored. Oh, Edgar was great, posting his 1107 OPS ... but Alex Diaz was the only weak hitter who got 250 ABs (he hit .619). Guys like Dan Wilson, Joey Cora, Luis Sojo, Mike Blowers, Rich Amaral were also productive players. 1996: AROD arrived with a 160 OPS+. Russ Davis with a 74 OPS+ was the weakest hitter in the lineup. *ONE* starter with an OPS below .700. People forget guys like Joey Cora (.757), Rich Amaral (.748), Darren Bragg (.827), Brian Hunter (.752) filling in with solid, but forgettable contributions. 1997: Best offense in the AL (925 runs) with Dan Wilson (.749) the only regular with an OPS+ below 100. Yes, Griffey and AROD and Edgar were great. But, Paul Sorrento (.859), Cora (.800), Russ Davis (.805), Jose Cruz (.856) were also great. Of course, the club had losing records in '98 and '99 despite all the talent. Edgar (1001), Griffey (.960), AROD (.943) were just as good as ever in 1999, but the club only finished 6th in offense. what happened THAT year? Dan Wilson (.697), Brian Hunter (.576). The club had *TWO* -- that's right - two of its regulars failing to post an 80 OPS+ -- and it turned them into an average offense. Then again, in 2000 and 2001, the club was back in the playoffs. Griffey left after '99, and Cameron took over in CF, and the club improved to 907 runs (4th in the AL). The 2000 club was odd -- two guys under 80 (Wilson at.627) and McLemore at .669), but the top three guys off the bench were all above 80. AROD and Edgar get the credit, of course. But, the 2000 club simply didn't have as many black holes offensively. 2001: You look at the OPS+ figures for the 116-win team, and you'll find the top 13 guys in PAs with the following OPS+ figures: 90, 136, 153, 87, 92, 93, 123, 126, 160, 115, 109, 78, 119 -- the worst of the top 13 hitters posted a 78 OPS+. It was *NOT* the 160 from Edgar or 153 from Boone that made the '01 great. It was having 8 of 13 hitters at 109 or more, and 4 of the other 5 all in the 90s. But, HOW did the club get there? Well, let's look at the first playoff club. HOW did it get THOSE players?
Wilson - traded to get 24 year old catching prospect with 100 MLB PAs - (got Wilson/Ayala for Bret Boone and Hanson) Of the 9 regulars, 6 got their first full time shot in the majors with Seattle. Three were completely home grown, and 3 were unproven, just-debuted prospects. You know what is completely missing from that list. *ANY* high priced FA signing. None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. The only two free agent veterans on that club were Cora and Sojo. If you go to bbref and look at the team player value -- batters chart, there is an "acquired" field. In 1995, 9 players were acquired by draft, including AROD, Tino, Griffey, Bragg and Edgar. by 2001, that number was 3 - and the entire list was: Ramon Vazquez, Charles Gipson and Edgar. In the late '80s and early '90s, the Mariner drafts routinely had 10% of guys reach the majors, and most years at least one, (and usually 2) guys would go on to produce positive WAR values for their MLB careers. Let's look at the 10 years leading up to the '95 team: (significant positive CAREER WAR players in parens)
June Draft results - Mariners From '86 - '94 the club had only one complete wash year ('89), but was getting 2-3 genuine positive producing MLBers every year. What about from since then? (Keep in mind, since these are CAREER WAR totals, as we get closer to present, they should go down some, but I'll attempt to ID any names of note).
1995 - 8/77 (10%) - 38.9 WAR (Jose Cruz, Brian Fuentes, Juan Pierre) In truth, there's about an 8 year lag between draft day and some sense of the success - (obviously, Hall of Fame guys tend to show up much quicker). But from 1997 - 2002 Willie Bloomquist was the ***ONLY*** offensive success from a Mariner draft. Yuni and Lopez were both foreign FA signings, (as was Felix). Really ... you'd think with that many picks, they'd just accidentally end up with someone working, wouldn't you? the 2006 draft is the ONLY one that even remotely smells like the entire decade before the Mariner golden age. My take is the drafting went south after 1996. The club got Putz and Bloomy in '99, and nothing else until Jones in '03. The 2004 draft is still in flux. But 2005 was a bust, 2007-present is too early to tell -- but the '07 and '08 guys aren't exactly screaming "the drought is over". But, that golden age run was built on the back of the drafts from 1987 through 1993. That's 7 years of solid drafting, including TWO Hall of Famers. But, it's not even about the guys all playing FOR the Ms. Bragg played in 1995 and was traded in '96 for ... Jamie Moyer. Boone was traded away, (netting Dan Wilson), and then re-signed as a FA later. Edgar was an ameteur FA signing in 1982 - but another homegrown guy. The CORE of the team was built from guys who had never played full time in the majors - Griffey, Tino, Edgar, Wilson, even Buhner. Then the club filled needs via veteran free agents. What happened thereafter is the club COMPLETELY focused on ameteur free agent signings, and allowed their draft to become a complete joke. From 1997 to about 2005 the drafts were sooooo bad, there is no model that could've allowed the team to succeed by anything other than total fluke. Instead of letting the AFA signings to "supplement" their draft - Seattle allowed the AFAs to supplant their draft. The external perception became that of Seattle having "superior" talent scouts, because compared to many clubs the AFAs were superior - (Ichiro, Felix, Lopez, Yuni ...). The reality was the club was rotting from within. Today, Z is blamed for a roster disaster. In truth, he had nothing but Felix to build upon. He managed to move Putz, (a '99 draftee), for value. But it took SEVEN (7) good drafts to build that golden age team. One can talk all they want about the FA and trade choices made over the last decade. But, by and large Bavasi and Z have both been building on top of a foundation of sand. I'm not big on WAR math - but really, how much would it take to pay for a 90-win team completely (all 25 players) based on current $/WAR? What is it - about $4 million per win - and replacment is what - 40 wins? So, 50 wins costs $200 million? With the only positive "in-house" WAR producers being Ichiro and Felix, (both on FA contracts at this point), Seattle really doesn't have ANY cheap positive WAR talent. What about Vargas and Fister? Well, with failures like Ian Snell costing money and failures like RRS providing negative WAR, the net is the same as if the club had no cheap talent at all. And that is how the club can spend $86 million (21.5 war wins) and end up with only 61 wins total. The reality NOBODY wants to hear is this -- *IF* Ackley represents the next Griffey, then the club is STILL likely 5-6 years away from drafting a base strong enough to be a legit power in the AL West. Essentially, the key to how long the drought lasts is largely tied with how good/bad the '07 and '08 drafts end up being. For a team to win 90 games *ASSUMES* that they are getting some kind of 'league minimum' positive WAR contribution from somewhere. Well, you can ONLY get league min positive WAR contribution from "never was" players -- those drafted - or those who have been marked as "failed specs" before acquiring. The ONLY way Z has available to speed up the rebuilding process is to acquire some number of "never was" players and get very, very lucky. Vargas and Fister and maybe even Pauley would qualify. As yet, he hasn't managed to pull off that miracle with a bat. The question for all the SABR heads out there -- how do you go about finding guys who might succeed in the future, who have shown *NO* statistical evidence suggesting MLB success? Yes, the club needs Ackley and Smoak to succeed. But, they *ALSO* need to find an Andres Torres miracle or two from somewhere - be it in-house (Moore/Johnson/Saunders?) - or by acquisition (Luis Rodriguez). The formula for a 90-win team? 25 wins from "free" players. 25 wins from free agent contracts, ($100 million payroll). Plus the 40 for replacement level performance. That's a 90-win team. And when the "free" players start moving into the "free agent" side of the economic equation, you *MUST* be able to replace those 25 "free" wins on the cheap. If you cannot - then what happened to Seattle after their run - and Oakland after their run - and Anaheim after their run -- *WILL* happen. If Ackley is worth 4 wins and Smoak 3 and Vargas/Fister/Pineda worth 8 -- the club only has 10 "free" wins more to find before it becomes reasonable to expect to be able to contend with a $100 million payroll. How many years does it have to find those extra 10 "free" wins? Three. That's how long before the "free" clock runs out and the homegrown talent beings morphing into FA-paid talent. The Ms have taken their lumps drafting for most of the last decade. There is NO quick fix to repair the rotten foundation Z inherited. And it could be quite awhile before Seattle actually can consider itself a legitimate playoff contender -- NEVER, if this problem is not addressed. |