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Perhaps the single biggest mistake fans (and analysts) make when viewing baseball performance is falling into the "what have you done for me lately" trap. There is an incredible pull in human psychology to put significantly more weight on the last thing seen, and largely dismiss all previous data. But, alas, there is also the other common error -- reaching a conclusion about an item, and then dismissing any and every new bit of data that runs contrary to that belief. Player analysis around the globe is chock full of both errors. This reality is not limited to baseball, of course. In political discussions, one is likely to find people so entrenched in their positions that they appear incapable of accepting even the slightest scrap of data that runs contrary to those beliefs. Or, conversely, a single mistake or oversight by a co-worker can lead to a permanent distrust of that individual. It is part of the human condition to cherry pick data that fits "comfortably" into our personal experiences. So, is it possible to avoid these problems of "latelyness" - swallowing the latest info whole hog, or dismissing it out of hand? Not entirely. Part of what makes these traits so strong is that they are given power by emotion. It is the very emotional aspect that provides the energy to want to pour over scads of stat sheets, or watch 3 reruns of the same SportsCenter broadcast that ends up causing these problems. When a stat guru has a theory, tests it, and that INITIAL finding supports his expectation, he/she gets excited. That excitement of that initial discovery will remain a part of every subsequent analysis. We are not Vulcans. It is not easy to dismiss the impact of strong emotions on our analysis. I am certainly not immune from this reality. But, we can combat this tendency. First, we have to admit it exists. (That step seems to be beyond the capacity of about half the people I have observed). Then, we need to try and find ways to submerge the emotion that locks us into positions, (or has us jumping at every bright light that passes by our eyes). After a horrid, horrid 2008 season there was little reason to be optimistic about 2009. But, by the middle of July, the team was over .500, and clearly still in the hunt for the post-season. In short, the 2009 season has been about as emotionally up as one could ever imagine. So, there is an almost undeniable prescence of "emotional pollution" clouding up analysis of the current team. For those expecting disaster, who NEED to hold onto previously held beliefs, the brain focuses on the negatives - the shortcomings - and underplays the positives. For the optimists, focus on all the good things can overwhelm (and obscure) the bad. As is normally the case, the truth lies somewhere between the two extremes. Russell Branyan is NOT a 1000 OPS hitter. When picked up *I* was one of the first to state that he was likely not nearly as bad against lefties as generally believed, (because he was never given a legit shot against them). I also suggested that given a chance to play full time, he could surprise people by retaining, (or even exceeding), his split-enhanced lines for his career. (As I write this, his career line: .236/.334/.495/.828). What I didn't do was go into detail about what I saw as "possible". The key with "platoon" pigeon-holed bats is not that they will be GOOD against the platoon - but that they might turn out to be "good enough", if given enough chances to get comfortable. BUT, the extra PT might improve the performance against the standard pitchers for the platoonee. Branyan is posting a .238/.339/.475/.814 line against lefties. He's carrying a .294/.394/.608/1,002 line against righties. This is almost exactly what I suggested was possible. Except, his line against lefties isn't LOWER than his career line - it IS his career line. I was thinking more: .750 line against lefties, and .900 line against righties. But, today, (mid-July), given the remarkable performance in the first half, the tendency of Ms fans everywhere is going to be to judge everything forthcoming from Branyan through the prism of what he did during his first three months. To Ms fans, Branyan *IS* a 1000 OPS 1B at this point, and slumping to "only" .850 or .875 is going to be viewed as slumping, not returning to his "true" value. If his OPS drops to .870, and he starts hitting at a 1000 clip for awhile, it will be the 1000 clip that is seen as the "real" Branyan. The truth, of course, is that every player is a composite of their best AND worst performances. On the other end of the spectrum is Ronny Cedeno. He sits on the bench getting little playing time, then gets hurt, missing more time. So, when injuries force him into the lineup, he stinks. He starts 8 games in April, another 7 in May. After becoming a regular starter, his stats got worse. His line plunged to .117/.202/.213/.415 by June 27th. That's a horrid line by any measure. But, by the end of June he had exactly 100 ABs. Not much of a sample, huh? But, after posting a sub-.600 OPS for a couple of hundred bats, he will FOREVER be viewed by Ms fans as an utterly inept hitter. Lately, the trade deadline came and went and with it came a MASSIVE shift in the makeup of the ballclub. Because Z doesn't have the budget to go after "big name" (and expensive) bats, the changes to the roster (both forced and chosen), have generally been greeted with indifference. Hannahan, Langerhans, (shrug). The revolving door in the infield with Yuni, Woodward, Shelton, Cedeno and Hannahan was mostly painful to watch. But, Captain Jack went and added Wilson to plug the hole at short. Beltre is back from his injury, (though Hannahan has been a major upgrade offensively from what Beltre had and Shelton had produced previously). Lately, the club has morphed almost overnight from a defense-first, offensively inept team hoping to win every game 3-2, into an above average offense with a questionable and erratic rotation. But, the memory of the first 4 months of the season are likely to surpass the ability of the mind to comprehend precisely how different this club truly is. Let's look at the YEAR LONG OPS figures at each position, compared to 2nd half:
POS - yr - 2nd
MAJOR improvement at Catcher, Second, Third, Center. Lately, Branyan has picked it up, (.797 this past week), though most may "feel" like Branyan is hitting just as good as earlier in the season. (he isn't - but he's hitting well enough). Meanwhile, Sweeney's small, but effective sample since the break is likely dismissed completely. Langerhans had a fast start, a dreadful slump, and is hitting again. I've heard a number of people complaining about Beltre. He hasn't hit a HR yet, but a .762 OPS since returning, compared to the .664 OPS he posted in the 1st half should have people doing handstands. Problem is, the bad emotional taste from that first half focuses the attention on the strikeouts, painting Beltre as a failure even while he's going 2 for 4. Meanwhile, the masses still perceive the pitching through the prism of the phenomenal first half dominance. Winning game after game 3-2 or 2-1 can be ulcer inducing. But, even with the questionable 4/5 slots, there came a point where everyone was expecting a 3-run or less game by the defense. That team doesn't exist anymore. Lately, the Big 3 has become the King -- and the four pawns. Forget about wondering whether the 2-5 pitchers are going to bring their "A" or "B" game -- on many nights there's no certainty of which pitcher is going to be bringing any game. Olson and Vargas are no longer certainties for the 4/5 slots, while Bedard is on the DL and Washburn is in Detroit. "Snell, RRS and the lucky fan in section R-17 will be your starters for the next 3-game home stand, so come out and support ... whoever the heck shows up next week at the Safe!" In truth, the only thing that hasn't changed is the defense. The league leading .708 DER remains a near constant, (which is quite remarkable given the breadth of the pitching inconsistency). The defense will still help the pitchers, (so long as they keep it in the park, and aren't giving up 6-8 walks a game). But, the remainder of the season is likely to be vastly different than the previous 4 months. The team had 4 spots in the lineup hitting under .650 for most of the season. Today, there is only one, (and that's likely just a hiccup due to a small sample). If the club gets something like .700 and up from third, short, left, and catcher the rest of the way, (VERY likely), the entire lineup is a quantum leap better than the one from earlier in the season. And then, come September 1st, the club has additional AAA talent (and maybe even some AA talent), that could be valuable. But, the club is also likely to suffer more double-digit meltdowns, too. As the 5-inning French exhausts the bullpen start after start, there may come a point where the masses are wishing for the 6-inning Bedard. Ultimately, Seattle has pulled a metamorphosis that Kafka could envy, (can't wait to see who gets THAT reference). The saying, "Beware what you ask for, you may get it," definitely comes to mind for me. For all those pleading for more offense, it has arrived. In Johnson and Saunders and Langerhans and Hannahan and Wilson, the offensive oomph that was missing is alive and well and NOT living in Cincinnati. The pitching has gone East. The club may win less. It may win more. It may continue at its previous pace. But, it will NOT be the same show that the club put on for the first 4 months of the season. Or, maybe I'm just buying in too deeply to what the club has done lately. =========
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