|
In April each year, fans are often astounded at the great (or horrid) numbers some players put up. Even knowing and understanding that sample size matters and that being hot (or cold) for a couple of weeks usually isn't a sign of a genuine change in a batter -- it remains hard NOT to get optimistic when the .600 hitter is smacking .800 or get impatient as the .800 hitter slumps to .600. But, with half a season of stats in the books, the second half of the season is a different animal. So, when July comes around, players can streak and/or slump, and it is easy to miss what is happening, as the numbers for July are only 1/4 of the year as a whole, and are largely drowned out by the earlier production. So, let us take a look at todays Mariners and ask the simple question: "What have you done for me lately?" CA - Rob Johnson - July OPS = .395 (ouch!) Mr. Inconsistency. His monthly OPS string for 2010? .721; .451; .709; .395. The numbers suggest Johnson simply loses the strike zone from month to month. His BB/K split for April+June compared to May+July is: A/J = 17/24; M/J = 6/22; His .242 BABIP for the season suggests he has been 'unlucky'. But, when BABIP numbers drop below .250, (.162 in May and .219 in July), there is REAL concern that a player is simply in over his head. PITCHERS have sub-Mendoza BABIP rates. But, Johnson "seems" to be an MLB bat at times, and then seems completely clueless at others. His leash is quickly running out. He better nix this Jekyl/Hyde thing by September, or he's toast and it'll be Moore + Bard (or some other veteran retread) in 2011. CA - Josh Bard - July OPS = .590. Since Johnson has been sooo bad, many may think Bard is doing really well. He isn't. His yearly numbers are inflated due to a fast start (.916 OPS in May). His 3/14 BB/K in July pretty much is the engraving on the invitation to get Moore back in Seattle. 1B - Smoak - July OPS = .414 -- Rocky start for the rookie 1B. Had a great June, (.832 OPS with a 17/28 BB/K split). His July has been a disaster with a 3/28 BB/K split. Nerves and change of scenery are likely culprits in the miserable drought Smoak is suffering. He'll come around, and has 2 HRs in July ... but having a worse OPS than Griffey isn't exactly what the kid (or the fans) were hoping for. 1B/DH - Branyan - July OPS = .735 -- On this team, that's superb. But, RB also has only two HRs in July. His .813 OPS for the season has many wishing he hadn't ever left. But, with only 58 starts on the season, and 8 Ks and zero walks in the last 14 days ... Russell is clearly an aging player in the sunset of his career. It's looking like his best hope to finish 2010 over .800 is to miss enough time that he doesn't drag his overall numbers down too much by the end. 1B - Casey Kotchman - July OPS = 1065 -- The player that Jack was hoping for FINALLY showed up in July. He's hitting .351 for the month with a .415 OBP and .649 slugging average. He's got 4 HR and 10-RBI. Whatever mental hurdle he had that created consecutive sub-.400 OPS months in May and June ... he's cleared it. In July Kotchman was what many are hoping Smoak will be ... (and Smoak was what most believe Kotchman is). Go figure. 2B - Chone Figgins - July OPS = .643 -- For a guy supposedly slumping, Figgins may actually be the most CONSISTENT hitter on the Mariners. He's been a low .600s hitter all season. Despite his first HR of the year, the suggestion based on July stats is that the club just signed Willie Bloomquist to a 4-year $36 million deal. 3B - Jose Lopez - July OPS = .581 -- Lopez "spiked" up to a .683 OPS in June. July will make three of 4 months this season BELOW .600. Lopez said before the season he wanted to walk more. Apparently he was referring to turning right instead of left and walking back to the dugout. His K and Walk rates are steady as ever. At the moment, he's even money to make double digit HRs for the season. SS - Jack Wilson - July OPS = .545 -- He's having his worst month of a horrible year. His 4/13 BB/K ratio is at least superior to the 1/13 he posted in April. But, at least back then he was hitting doubles. SS - Josh Wilson - July OPS = .404 -- He's gotten progressively worse as the season has unfolded, dropping from a May OPS of .776 to a June OPS of .632 to today ... as he attempts to track down Rob Johnson for the worthless bat award for July. His 0/9 BB/K split for July pretty much says it all. LF - Michael Saunders - July OPS = .765 -- (which is 1 point higher than his June OPS. But, in July, he's started hitting LHPs. His improvement from 5/20 BB/K to 10/16 BB/K this month is another GREAT sign for a youngster learning his craft. While he had a nice HR tear in June to inflate his slugging (and OPS), his July numbers are MUCH more realistic in terms of sustainability. Still room to improve, but evidence suggests he's not getting fooled as much as he was earlier in the season. This is an .800 hitter in the making. v CF - Franklin Gutierrez - July OPS = .450 -- while nobody was watching, Gutierrez began a startling impersonation of Rob Johnson this month. His .149/.216/.234 (.450) line for the month. But Wak did NOT stand idly by while Gutz was slumping. No. End of July, beginning of August, Gutz was hitting 5th, 6th or 7th. But, after July 10th, (OPS of .726), Gutz hit 3rd or 4th the rest of the month, (except for July 19th - a single game hitting 5th). If Gutz' slump continues much longer, he'll be leading off. RF - Ichiro -- July OPS = .578 -- A couple of recent games are actually helping pull Ichiro's July numbers UP. But, it's not like he's hitting worse than Lopez ... (oh, wait ... never mind). DH - Bradley -- July OPS = .508 -- He and Rob Johnson are apparently on the same mood leveling pharmaceuticals - April and June he was .732/.730 -- May and July .518 and .508. The team obviously gets its supplements from Yoyo-Dyne. |