AND THEY'RE OFF!!!

The season begins with Felix pitching an ump-challenged gem, (same old, same old), the bullpen blowing the lead, (ah-oh), Ichiro and Figgins burning up the basepaths, (oh boy, oh boy), Kotchman playing the hero at the plate, (say what?), and League and Aardsma closing the door in the end, (oh, YEAH, Baby!).

Opening Day is always special - the return of Spring breezes, short sleeves, Tax Refunds ... it's a joyous time of year, when even Pittsburgh and K.C. are within striking distance of first place. But, as sweet as the pollen on the breeze may smell, April is a dangerous emotional time for the common baseball fan. The problem is ... the slate has been erased. Everyone begins 0-0. Every batting slump is measured from Opening Day. Every stellar play *IS* the best of the season, (thus far). But, after hibernating for five months, the joy of the infinite blue sky, the smell of hot dogs wafting across the bleachers, the tingle of excitement when the ball leaves the bat and arcs toward the forest green fence in the distance ... how could the emotions not be enhanced?

For the fan, April is dangerous because the lack of statistical foundation for player performance inflates each event. Getting two homers on opening day doesn't mean a player will finish with 324. But, it FEELS like it will. When things go well, the blank slate makes them seem all the more magical and wonderful. When things go poorly, the emotions can overwhelm the intellect and depression can quickly follow. Putting excessive weight on April events is a trap -- whether things are going well or poorly -- because baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. But, despite these words of truth and wisdom of ages, it remains all too easy for the emotional angst and ire of April to fester all season -- or the delight and triumph of a good April to blind the fan to changing realities.

In 2009, Russell Branyan arrived with little fanfare. He was just meh journeyman 1B whose loudest plaudit from the bleachers was that at least he wasn't Richie Sexson. Branyan posted a 1029 OPS in April (16 games), including 4 HRs. Fans were hooked. When he repeated the performance with a 1026 OPS in May (28 games), it was all-out love for the man, (and the man who hired him). But, because Branyan STARTED by hitting 1000 for April and May (and over .900 in June), there was no call for his beheading when he posted a .637 OPS in July, or a .734 in August. His final .867 line was very, very good. And, because he ended 2009 with the highest team OPS, many credit him personally with being the difference between a losing and winning season. But, that isn't what happened.

On June 23, Seattle was 35-35. That was the last day of 2009 that Seattle would finish at .500 or below. On June 23rd, Branyan had an OPS of 1004. By the end of July, Seattle was 53-50. Branyan was down to .907. End of August? 68-64 and .867. Branyan didn't play again, while Seattle DOUBLED their wins-above-.500. In fact, the WORST W/L month for Seattle was May (11-18), when Russell the Muscle was hitting 1026 with 7 HRs. The point here is not to belittle Branyan's contribution to the 2009 season. He was clearly a positive force, (the club actually went 61-55 in games he started). The point here is to demonstrate that because Branyan *STARTED* the season hot, the perception of his YEAR LONG contribution is skewed.

Beltre had a horrid start, so his .815 June and .844 August were largely invisible. The effect, however, is magnified for newcomers. Beltre, even when struggling early, was viewed as a 'productive guy', who just happened to be slumping. Gutierrez was judged almost solely on what he did on a day-to-day basis. When he got hot in mid-season, and his OPS climbed above .800, Gutz became a fan favorite. Lopez, who had posted a .764 OPS in 2009 (and lesser numbers in previous seasons), was viewed with a shrug as he also got hot after a poor start. Gutz had an edge. For ONE WEEK in May, his OPS spiked above .800 (he had multiple hits in 4 of 5 games). And then, in July, his OPS climbed above .800 for almost the entire month. Lopez, who had started much slower, never saw his OPS get above .773.

At seasons end, Gutz was viewed as a "must-have" piece for the future. Lopez was the #1 guy being lobbied as trade bait. Lopez finished the year with a .766 OPS, Gutz at .764. Because Gutz ESTABLISHED himself as an .800 OPS hitter early enough in his Mariner tenure, that is how the fans came to view him. Lopez was pre-established as a mid-700s hitter who can't take a walk. Many will want to claim an unfair assessment of the situation - ("Gutz' glove makes a HUGE difference!" some will cry). No doubt there are logical reasons (and rationalizations) for viewing players positively or negatively. But, if Gutz had hit .550 for two months and THEN climbed to finish at .764, I have no doubt that the masses would view him differently. And that is the point of this article. Order matters in baseball.

Lacking foundation, fans cannot help but latch onto what they SEE first-hand. If Wilkerson plays 15 games and hits .500, he's going to have to hit 1000 for 30 to wash the bad taste out of the mouth. If he hits 1000 for 15 games, then a subsequent slump will be much easier to handle emotionally.

There is an unfortunate reality when viewing April performances. WHATEVER happens in April is what the common fan is going to expect to see the rest of the season, (unless he's watching someone he's viewed for previous seasons and a more robust perception has been cultivated). But, simply repeating April is not what happens. At ANY given point in time, one can expect the rule of thirds to be in play. The rule of thirds is simple: at any moment one can expect 1/3 of players to be performing beyond ability - 1/3 performing at ability - and 1/3 performing below ability. For most of the season, this reality is obscured by the accumulated numbers from the entire year. But, in April, on the clean slate - those 1/3 of players who aren't producing *FEEL* much more detrimental than they truly are.

So, as the rest of April unfolds, contemplate this. EVERY April there are several teams that defy logic -- either winning or losing completely against expectation. In 2009, the Yankees lost a boatload of games to the Red Sox in the first half of the season. It made little difference in the end. EVERY April bullpens throughout baseball uncover bright gems of potential *AND* have previously reliable pitchers simply implode. The particulars are effectively impossible to predict. But, only on rare occasions does this not happen.

So, Seattle fans can expect several players to disappoint - several to thrill - and they can rest assured that there will be both good and bad performances from pitchers (starting and relieving). But, MLB players are not strat-o-matic cards. They don't bring the same set of tools to the park every day. Some days they feel *GOOD!* (And they demonstrate it with performances like Kotchman's opening salvo). Some days, they can't quite get it together, and can look baffled and overmatched. Neither case is the norm. The Yankees only went 12-10 last April - and lost 5 in row in early May. They lost their first 9 against Boston. They'd ultimately win their next 9 against Boston along with the AL Pennant and World Series. April is not everything. But, it feels like the entire season in this moment, because it IS the entire season (thus far).

So, don't get too hyped about the fast starters - or too depressed about the guys that struggle. Instead, lift your beer and toast the real truth and beauty of April baseball -- this is just the begining, and there is a full Spring and Summer of baseball yet to be played.