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PA/HR: (high is better)
YEAR: Player : PA/HR -- OPS - BABIP- slug
2007: Johjima: 42.27 - .801 - .328 - .444
2008: Johjima: 43.16 - .777 - .312 - .426
(thru 5/21/2009) ====== Johjima was basically a league average catcher for HR allowance in his rookie season. Not bad, as he's learning a new league, language, staff, etc. But, he was drastically worse than the backup catcher. Being just league average when catching in Safeco is certainly not good. In 2007, he improved dramatically, beating league average, (though again losing to Burke in the team competition). This was, of course, the magic season, where everything seemed to go right. The HR rate for the bullpen was unbelievably good for the team, (35 HR in 2195 PAs - while starters allowed 112-HR in 4116 PAs). But, in those first two seasons, Johjima's OPS allowed was massively worse than his backup, (100 points of OPS is major). His BABIP was league average in his rookie season, then got drastically worse in 2007. But, in both of those seasons, the BABIP for his backup was FAR superior to both his own BABIP and the league average. In 2008, things improved for Joh, as his BABIP was only 10 points over league average, (instead of 23), though the rookie, Clement, who was often criticized for his poor defense managed to beat league average in BABIP. But, the OPS figures for all three catchers were close enough to be considered statistical noise. In 2009, a new manager shakes things up. He stresses communication, attempting to get his pitchers and Joh on the same page. Joh's backup is a different rookie. A quarter way into the season, Johjima's OPS allowed is through the roof, though his BABIP is reasonable. For 2009, the problem with Johjima catching is firmly linked to an astronomical HR rate. This is highly disturbing, especially since the club was leading the league by a wide margin early in the season, (when Joh was on the DL). In Joh's career, he has allowed a HIGHER slugging percentage than league average each season. In only 2008 has the backup failed to beat the league average in slugging percentage. From an analytical standpoint, 2008 would have to be considered a career year for Johjima in terms of opponent batting, while his career shows a disturbing reality -- opponents hit Johjima harder than league average, and way harder than his backup catchers -- which is doubly disturbing when you consider the well known and documented reality of Safeco reducing opponent hitting, ESPECIALLY power. Of course, whenever discussing catcher influence on hitting, the big problem is trying to determine how much of the result is pitcher and how much catcher. As a general rule, I have always felt that most catchers have little influence on the batting outcomes. The pitcher is the one with the stuff - he can shake off catcher pitch choices - his ability to hit spots isn't the catcher's fault. But, with Joh, while the evidence isn't identical every season, there's been enough discussion about concerns over how he sets up, how he calls the game, communication disconnects -- that I began to accept the possibility that Joh is one of the rare catchers who has a significant influence on batter outcome - and not in a positive way. Part of my belief is based on interview answers from Joh. His consistent response when asked about specific pitch choices, (mostly with bad outcomes), his answer begins with remembering a previous failure. "Well, I remembered Joe Schmo hit a HR off Wash on a FB last time, so I called for the change". The ability to recall those details is wonderful. But, my belief is that concentrating on previous failures CREATES failures. Did that FB get smacked last time because it was down the center? If so, then it wasn't the call, but the execution. It's not JUST about the pitch choice. So, given a premise that Johjima's attention to past failures is a causal factor in the poor pitching results when he's catching, how can I tell? What can I look for to try and figure out if this is true? Well, first off, I would think that familiarity with a pitcher would increase the problem. My thinking would be that the more data you have, the more failures you're going to have to draw from. So, I would expect the problem to get worse over time. I'd also expect that things would get worse during a season. I'd also expect worse results with starters than relievers. Of course, there's always variation, and I wouldn't expect all of these to always be true. But it gives me a place to look for hidden trends. I also have to admit that baseball in general increases offense from 1st to 2nd half, (or at least so goes the often cited nugget of baseball lore). So, let's start at the beginning. ==== 2006: Rookie season -- no history with pitchers - blank slate. I'd expect average performance, and a poor second half. Well, Joh was much worse then his backup, but he was about league average for the year. What was the league split for OPS in 1st and 2nd half? .777 OPS in 1st half and .776 in second. (Oops, that talk of second half offensive spikes as weather warms didn't hold true. An odd aside, the BABIP in first half was .301 for the league a .310 in the 2nd. Defense got worse, but offense was flat - but I digress). How did Seattle do? .754 OPS allowed in first half, .786 in 2nd. A 32 point climb, 9 points of average, 7 points of patience and 16 points of slugging. (Team BABIP allowed went from .295 to .305). 2007: Felix and Wash return, the other 3 pitchers are swapped out. Joh ended up with a dreadful BABIP allowed, and another 100 point swing between him and his backup. But, his HR allowed numbers were actually much improved. The team's OPS split for 1st and 2nd half was .752 to .812 -- a 60 point hike in OPS allowed, (ouch). League OPS went up 10 points (.756 to .766), as league BABIP jumped from .300 to .312 after the break. The change for Seattle was 16 points of average, an improvement of 3 points in patience, and a slugging increase of 47 points. Basically, there was a major 2nd half HR parade. (Team BABIP allowed went from .311 to .328). 2008: Felix, Wash and Batista returned, (though Batista would only get 20 starts before being shoved back into the pen). Silva and Bedard were the new kids on the block, and RRS, Feierabend and Morrow would cover the rest. This was Joh's best overall year. Of course, Batista lost his job, Wash had his worst season, and pretty much the whole team stunk. The 1st/2nd splits for the team show a .744 OPS before the break and an .840 after. Sheesh. That's a 100 point climb in OPS allowed! The team BABIP allowed went from .303 to .319, so defense was part of it, but average jumped 27 points, patience jumped 7 points and slugging jumped 62 points. The 2nd half HR binge was off the charts bad. The league split for 2008 was a .743 OPS in 1st half and .773 in second. There's the 30 point offensive surge during the summer that we expect. The league BABIP spike? .298 to .308. So, what does this tell us? First off, there is a CONSISTENT pattern that BABIP climbs significantly in the 2nd half for the league as a whole. (This supports a contention of mine that a major portion of 2nd half offensive spike is actually defensive laziness). Second, we see that the notion that offense spikes in the 2nd half, while accurate, is likely overstated. However, the portion that is not driven by defense typically comes primarily from a few more HRs. For Joh and the Mariners, we see a massive, (and increasing), trend of second half offensive spikes by the opposition, which are largely due to a major increase in opponent HR output. For 2009, the club returned 4 starters, (though Silva has been shelved). At the moment, Johjima is allowing an ungodly number of HRs. It's only a quarter season, so sample size is an issue, but given the park, the HR allowed rate that is currently being generated is drastically beyond reasonable. We also see a consistent pattern that the HR rate for Seattle in particular has been exploding during the 2nd half. At this point, Joh is probably as bad as he's going to get when calling games for Felix, Wash and Bedard. I get the feeling that none of the veteran starters have a good connection with Joh, which is ultimately detrimental. Working with the young kids, without track records, is probably a plus for Joh, (for awhile). But, history would indicate that while he might continue having the erratic success with Jaku and company for awhile, that success may well vanish later in the summer. As for what to expect for the rest of 2009. If Johjima is catching, there is a very real danger that the pitching will begin to deteriorate. Defense, in general, gets worse in the 2nd half, and historically HR rates climb, (at least during the Johjima tenure in Seattle). This all sounds rather dire. The only upside I see at this point is that Bedard is self-absorbed enough where he is the least likely to let any disconnect with Johjima impact his pitching. He knows what he wants to throw, and he'll throw it, and shake off Joh until he gets his sign. Wash has already had his worst spell with Johjima, and likely has moved toward the Bedard mentality, whereas previously, the weight of CONSTANTLY shaking off the catcher eventually leads to caving in situations, which you later regret. With Felix, I believe the problem is the largest. Felix doesn't have the wisdom to know how to pitch, and may have the largest split with Johjima. He's the one most likely to shake off Joh, just because Joh is calling for it. If only one guy can get Johnson as his personal catcher, Felix probably needs him. The youngsters are the ones who, if they continue in the rotation, may suffer the most in the second half. The problem here is that youngsters often suffer as the league gets to see them more. While there are lots of people who are fond of Jaku, the brutal truth is as I write this, he has a 3.5 K/9 rate. While he pounds the strike zone, (2.8 BB/9), history says that it is essentially impossible to sustain success in the modern MLB with a K rate below 5.3. Jaku isn't below 5.3, he's DRASTICALLY below 5.3. Jaku, is Silva without experience. The only real positive note as 2009 unfolds is RRS returning, and the potential for either Vargas or Olson to pull things together. RRS actually has the ability to stick in the majors, where Jaku likely doesn't. But, if the HR rate and BABIP for opponents rise in the second half, the team could easily collapse into another 100-loss season. It's not fun being the bearer of bad news, and I'd be fine with being wrong about this assessment. But, the offense isn't showing itself to be a league average offense, and the pitching/defense has been getting progressively worse as the season has unfolded. I may be laying too much of the blame at the feet of Johjima. The stats aren't good at telling why. But, the stats since his arrival show a disturbing pattern, which the team certainly cannot afford to continue. |