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Well, the Ms 2009 may have been reviewed ... but what about Mariner Central? ============== "At the Time" DECEMBER, 2008: (Mariners sign Russell Branyan) MtGrizzly: "If he sees a single LH pitcher, WakaWaka will need to be shot. If he platoons and faces only RH pitchers, this could be a very good move." Beastie Boys: "Like I said, maybe it's just me but I don't see this as that exciting. I'm just kinda meh on the move so far." phredmojo: "if he ends up a bench player and 200 ab's it could be a solid move. if he he is starting and gets 500 ab's it won't be a solid move." Sandy-Raleigh: "I am very much behind the move ... His short-term, low dollar contract means that his signing will NOT prevent some unforseen future move from being made or considered ... The move practically wreaks of thinking BEYOND the moment. This "type" of move is the chess master already looking 6 moves ahead and knowing that this pawn could pay big dividends months from now." FINAL LINES FOR BRANYAN:
OVERALL: .251/.347/.520/.867 - 31-HR, 64-R; 76-RBI (116 games - 505 PAs) ================================== December, 2008: (on the Putz/Gutz trade) CrustyJuggler: "So the Mariners get.. two defensive OFers that can't hit, a middle of the road long reliever and a AA 1B that is probably a B prospect." phredmojo: "if this trade goes down i'm rescinding my decision to give Z 2 years before calling for his head and will start calling for it immedietly". Beastie Boys: "The Indians and Mariners sure got the shitty end of the deal on this one. Bad move made by Z, IMO. Typical Mariners tho." BB15: "Our defense just got SIGNIFICANTLY better, which will make our pitching SIGNIFICANTLY better. " Beastie Boys: "Z should of just went out and signed Milton Bradley." kevin ess: "WOW. I cannot believe what I'm reading here. As much as I love Putz, this was a huge win for the Ms. We now have one of, if not THE best outfield in years and years of Major League Baseball." CrustyJuggler: "Yes, it is an AWESOME defensive outfield.. BUT..... it is a HORRIBLE offensive outfield. Chavez, Gutierrez and Ichiro won't hit 20 homers combined! COMBINED!!!! You expect at least 20 homeruns from an average COFer.. We don't even have that with our entire outfield." (EDITORS NOTE: Ichiro, Gutz & Endy combined for 31 HRs. All OFs combined for 42). kevin ess: "This is easily the best trade in probably five years. " Taro: "Overall, I see this as a WIN. People that don't like Guttierez will soon be converted unless he fails to improve with the bat." Yuni: "He's made his SP better with better defense. That's more runs saved. The upgrade in defense will help the pitching. That helps the ML club." phredmojo: "while making the offense and the bullpen worse, thus making the team worse." SABR Matt: "This trade is just plain terrible ... Unless Z knows something that is not obvious about Carp, Carrera, Vargas, Cleto and Heilman, and unless he changes his mind REAAAALLLY fast about even CONSIDERING making Endy Chavez a full time starter in left field, this will go down as one of the worst trades in Mariner franchise history." Sandy - Raleigh: "Overall, my instinct is to like this trade." BatGrrl66: "I said this once and I will say it again. a winning team is built on defense and pitching. We have the pitching and it seems our defense is getting hugely upgraded. Defense helps pitching, pitching controls and wins the game." ======================== January, 2009: (on the followup trade in the Putz deal which brough in Cedeno and Olson) phredmojo: "with our current lineup, none of our starters will be a 10 game winner" (Sweeney and Griffey added later). SABR Matt: "Too bad Cedeno sucks so hard he ruins my love of Olsen as a prospect. " ==================================== January, 2009: (On the Sweeney pick-up ... minor league contract, ST invite)
topher65: "Not a bad idea to give him a look I guess." phredmojo: "i wanted him too, about 5 years ago when he was still good and not washed up ... i wanted to give Z 2 years before i called for his head, but he is making it extremely difficult with all his crappy acquisitions so far" SABRMatt: "I like SHelton better...but ya never know." BB15: "Sweeney used to be great, but he's several years removed from being a viable option as a #3 hitter on ANY team." (Editor: Sweeney final stats): .281/.335/.442/.777 - (106 OPS+) 8-HR, 34-RBI in 266 PAs (74 games) ======================== Feb 19 -- (Your 2009 Seattle Mariners) Joseph: "I think the Mariners need Beltre BAD and they should try to get another four years with him. I see him being a huge benefit in the coming years for the Mariners... " BatGrrl66: "They deserve to be losers forever if they don't do everything that is reasonable (and maybe a little more) to resign him. But funny enough if I had the choice I would keep Adrian over Ichiro any day of the week. " Lonnie: "I'm not so sure if the Mariners need him quite that badly, but resigning him for another 4 years or so wouldn't break my heart." Vidya: "Corcoran is my closer and Batista is lucky to make the team. If he can't deal with it, then he becomes a free agent much sooner than he expects." Hui: "There is definitely a battle for the closer position. Best case, Batista proves that last year's back injury is healed and he wins the closer position outright. Worst case, Batista is the long mop-up man and the closer role goes to Corcoran, Lowe or RRS." =================== March 13, (should Aardsma close?) phredmojo: "i don't like anyone we have currently for the role that is healthy. but as of today he's the only one that has earned the first shot at it until fields/cordero are ready for the role" CrustyJuggler: "... yes, I like Aardsma the best right now." Lonnie: "Aardsma has definately shown something this spring and should be given a tight look as the closer. One thing though, if (just speculating here) Morrow proves he cannot stay healthy enough to put in 160 innings then I think management won't hesitate to slide him into the bullpen where he will assume the closer role." ====================== April, 2009: (On Carp) Dr Detecto: "Just looking at the set of skills, and the performance-by-age, I can't say I expected Carp to become Ryan Howard, or Paul O'Neill, or anybody like that... To me, Carp *looks* kind of like Chris Snelling." Sandy - Raleigh: "So, what do I see as his upside? A .900 OPS major leaguer. Oh, yeah. That's long-shot city. But, if he is what I think he is -- I'm thinking he could be an .850 producer in the majors with only about 3 months of struggle time." CARP's 2009: posted a .271/.372/.446/.818 line at Tacoma (490 PAs, 15-HR -- 58/99 BB/K) Minimal PT in the majors: .315/.415/.463/.878 with 1-HR and a 8/10 BB/K in 65 MLB PAs. ================================== April 15: (Prognostibation) -- (I was predicting 13-9 by end of April - club went 13-9 in April). Taro: "Sandy's scenario would put us at 85 wins for the season." CrustyJuggler: "You need to invest in a Magic 8-ball. I asked mine "Will Branyan hit .250/.350/.550 in 2009 for the Mariners?" I got "It is decidedly so" as the answer." ======================== July 4th -- (Putz trade re-visited) CrustyJuggler: "I didn't like the Putz move initially because it seemed we got a lot of middling talent instead of one or two bonafide players. Turns out we did get one in Franklin Gutierrez. The J.J. trade looks like a stroke of genius in hindsight." SABR Matt: "I think the big steal is going to be the Langerhans deal. Getting a 20-HR threat in left field who can also play defense and take a walk in exchange for Mike Morse?" ========================= July 27 - (Reviewing the Boss) Sandy - Raleigh: "Most of the optimismtic crowd coming into 2009 were thinking 75 wins as a reachable goal. The reality is, that despite an anemic offense, the club is looking more like an 85-win club." Vidya - "What I like most about Zduriencik is that he has achieved this gain, AND built the team for the near future and long term." MFaninAlaska: "I see some nice things finally starting to happen with this club age wise, but there's alot of work left to be done to get me to believe that this club is "turned around".. there's potential for it, but its not there yet." MtGrizzly: "There are probably many ways to execute a three year turn around and Jack might be taking the toughest route of all: trying to rebuild on the fly while fielding a respectable team." ====================== July 29, (Clement/Cedeno +++ for Snell/Wilson) G_Moneyball: "We overpaid for the Jack Wilson part of the deal. We sent a decent chunk of our low-minors pitching out. But Ian Snell is a legit #3. If his head's on straight (had depression issues) he can be terrific ... I'll take it." SABR Matt: (on Snell): "Now he's pitching for a ballclub that makes positive visualization and belief systems the core of its' identity. I bet he comes out breathing fire." OBF: "In the end we trade a broken/busted former top prospect (Clement), a never was never will be SS (Cedeno), and three meh low minors pitchers (all three will likely never be what Snell is) for a starting SS and a #3 starting pitcher. I think we made out like bandits." Wufners: "Good take, OBF. I'm with you on each point you make." SNELL's MARINER LINE: (12 starts); 5-2; 4.20-ERA; 64.1-IP; 39-BB; 37-K; 7-HR (Jeff Clement didn't have a MLB AB in 2009): AAA line for Pitt: .224/.313/.459/.772 (no games caught - mostly played 1b) =========================== July 29, 2009: (Wlad traded to Cinci for minor league pitcher Robert Manuel) Taro: "Just based off of his minor league numbers he looks pretty promising." DrDetecto: "Interesting to get anything whatsoever (that you like) for a player who has been DFA'ed. Nice job indeed. Career 1.5 walk rate *combined* with 0.5 homer rate, which makes him a minor-league Bob Tewksbury. This is one, maybe the first one, that could be called a hardcore sabermetric move." Vidya: "I'll take Manuel over Messenger any day. I'll be very happy with him at Tacoma or Seattle." (Editor: After posting a .625 for the Ms in 170 PAs during 2009, Wlad's 2009 lines ended up:) Cinci: .264/.352/.427/.779 Overall: .234/.305/.385/.690 ============================ My concluding impression of Z and Co?
Z's insight into offensive and defensive players seems to be very strong. That said, it's a small sample, and things may change. But, if Snell flops, and Olson, Vargas, French continue to stink up the rotation, then the club is going to have no choice but to hope it can develop and/or acquire cheap bats, while it pays thru the nose for quality SPs on the market. |