[Lonnie]

Danny Hultzen has a mild hip flexor strain. Word is he will miss a week or so.

Injuries happen, and that's all I'm going to say on the topic for fear of jinxing the team.

[Huindekmi]

I'm predicting the first four rotation slots end up going to Felix, Saunders, Iwakuma and Garland. The #5 spot looks like a battle between Ramirez, Beaven and Hultzen, with Noesi and Bonderman having already removed themselves from serious consideration (baring a rash of significant injuries to the guys ahead of them).

Prior to today's news, I was handicapping the race as
- Ramirez: 40% chance
- Beaven: 40% chance
- Hultzen: 20% chance

This injury, no matter how minor, just lowers the odds of Hultzen being in the rotation on opening day. Since there's benefit to the club for keeping Hultsen in AAA until mid-season, he really needed to outperform his competition by a significant margin. It's a long spring this year, so I'm not tweaking my odds just yet.

If the battle comes down to Beaven vs Erasmo, and the two are evenly matched as rotation starters, the question quickly turns to "which one would be more valuable out of the pen?"

[DocMilo]

Hultzen ran out of gas last year. He still needs to get his innings up to an MLB level of workload that I will guess won't be until next year. I don't think this injury is significant in the fact that spring training started a week(ish) earlier than normal. He's probably already where he needs to be any other year. It shouldn't be an issue.

Then again, he could win a slot, be shut down later in the year and have Beavan/Erasmo/Bonderman or Maurer to replace him once he's reached his IP limit. If they option him to Tacoma following an inning shut down, that would stop the clock at the other end of the season, correct? Or am I just sleep deprived since I woke up at 2:30 this morning?

[wufners]

I hope Ramirez has more of a hold on a spot than Garland. I would much rather reward a guy who has busted his butt for the organization while earning his way rather then hand a spot to an outsider because of veteran intangibles. Seems to me Garland may have more to prove than Erasmo at this point. Plus he comes with a much lower ceiling.

I also don't want to start a season with a rotation filled with old guys trying to prove they can still pitch or that they deserve the bigger contract they weren't able to get during the offseason.

My recipe would be Felix, Iwakuma, Ramirez, and Saunders (reluctantly), with Hultzen, Paxton, and Taiwan duking it out for the last spot. If none of them are ready, then Mauer, Bleaven, Garland (reluctantly), and maybe Bonderman (probably not) can fight to be the place holder until one of the other three demands their way in.

Z himself has alluded to how those high upside arms aren't as valuable without Major League experience. We need to get them into the big rotation to start contributing to a playoff run or establishing some real trade value to get the players we need for the run. We got enough of those arms now, so let's not putz around with veteran retreads.

[Vidya]

I'll give you Felix, Saunders and Iwakuma. Garland is a NRI, so I would put him behind Ramirez and Beaven. Walker may have moved ahead of Hultzen right now, but I would put both behind Garland. Bonderman is ahead of Noesi, but who isn't right now? I guess I would go 40-40-20 x 2 for Ramirez, Beaven and Garland minus the remote chances the others have to make the MLB rotation out of ST.

I will admit that I'm not certain of some important details like option years left and details of the NRI contracts, and that could change the numbers significantly, so I reserve the right to change my mind with further information.

[Lonnie]

Vidya, on 04 March 2013 - 03:06 PM, said:

I'll give you Felix, Saunders and Iwakuma. Garland is a NRI, so I would put him behind Ramirez and Beaven. Walker may have moved ahead of Hultzen right now, but I would put both behind Garland. Bonderman is ahead of Noesi, but who isn't right now? I guess I would go 40-40-20 x 2 for Ramirez, Beaven and Garland minus the remote chances the others have to make the MLB rotation out of ST.

I will admit that I'm not certain of some important details like option years left and details of the NRI contracts, and that could change the numbers significantly, so I reserve the right to change my mind with further information.

I threw an empty beer can during the game and it landed in the recycling bin. Then, my phone started ringing. I think *I'M* ahead of Noesi right now...

[OutfieldGrass]

I don't understand how Ramirez doesn't have a rotation spot to lose. He earned it last season and should be given a chance to prove he is part of this teams future. It would be great to see Garland/Bonderman force their way in but the truth is this team is in the position of finding the players who will help out not only this season but the next 2-3 as well. Ramirez earned it. Let Garland/Bonderman/Beaven fight for the final spot.

Hultzen/Paxton/Walker never had a chance of breaking camp with the Mariners IMO. Hultzen and Paxton both have things to work on in Tacoma and Walker is just not ready. Yet.

[M's Watcher]

Erasmo's clock is running, but isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2019 season. Does the clock stop if he ends up in Tacoma? I just think he's better than Beavan. God knows if Garland or Bonderman have anything left in the tank (or arm, shoulder, etc.), but were MLB-TM players. Agreed that the other kids have little chance out of ST, but I'm sure that was by design, both to preserve service years and mitigate risk. If the vet NRIs fail, then there might be a spot for a kid that absolutely forces his way into the rotation. So far, Hultzen's hip is gimpy, and Walker and J-Pax are mortal. Maurer has been lucky, or maybe he just is showing he can pitch out of jams.

It looks mostly like Garland, Beavan, and Ramirez to fill two spots in the rotation. But there is a lot of ST remaining...

[Huindekmi]

Bonderman is done. He hasn't shown anything so far and has dug himself a hole he may not be able to get out of.

Garland is looking OK and, as you say, he is a MLB™ pitcher, which seems to carry a lot of weight with Wedge. That's why I've predicted that he'll make the rotation. He has a lower bar to clear than the younger guys. All things being relatively equal, his veteran experience is the tie breaker.

It's hard to say that Erasmo has earned a spot in the rotation. He started a grand total of 8 games for the M's last season, 4 in June and 4 in Sept. The traditional metrics say that he was a good to average starter for those 8 games. He shows a lot of promise. But he hasn't cemented a spot in the rotation.

[M's Watcher]

Huindekmi, on 05 March 2013 - 01:11 PM, said:

It's hard to say that Erasmo has earned a spot in the rotation. He started a grand total of 8 games for the M's last season, 4 in June and 4 in Sept. The traditional metrics say that he was a good to average starter for those 8 games. He shows a lot of promise. But he hasn't cemented a spot in the rotation.

I think you are selling Ramirez short. Of his 8 starts with Seattle, 5 were quality. In Tacoma in 2012, he averaged over 5 IP in 15 starts, with similar other stats. I'd like to see a few more kids promoted after 15 (or less) similar Tacoma starts in 2013. Maybe we'll be shedding excess vet pitching at the deadline, not because we are selling, but because more of the kids are ready.

[OutfieldGrass]

I just feel Ramirez has more of a future in Seattle than Beaven and especially Garland and any other options for the final two spots not named Tajuan Walker, James Paxton or Danny Hultzen. He might not have a proven track record at the MLB level but he has shown he can be effective both in the minors and majors and at only 22 years of age we need to see what he can do. Its foolish in my opinion to not slot him in the 4th spot in the rotation from the start. Let the others fight for the final spot.

If we were a contending team I could see wanting a veteran in the final two spots. We aren't. The entire purpose this season is to find out who will be part of the teams future and to push a guy like Ramirez defeats that purpose. A case can be made that sending Beavan back to Tacoma defeats it as well but with 3.9 SO/9 over 249 big league innings I just have little faith he can be successful in the big leagues.

[M's Watcher]

If Jack's offseason moves weren't so we could contend, then why bother? For the fans' money, we should expect them to at least try to contend every year. The decades of futility be damned.

[Schuxu]

Where is Ramirez IP / season wise? Is he already fit to go through a whole mlb season?
I think it would be easier to limit his innings at a lower level instead of having to do that or having to shut him down late in the season because his innings count is up.

This post has been edited by Schuxu: 06 March 2013 - 04:46 AM

[M's Watcher]

Schuxu, on 06 March 2013 - 04:46 AM, said:

Where is Ramirez IP / season wise? Is he already fit to go through a whole mlb season?
I think it would be easier to limit his innings at a lower level instead of having to do that or having to shut him down late in the season because his innings count is up.

He pitched in the low 150s for IP in 2010-11, and 136+ between Tacoma and Seattle in 2012. Pretty much used just as a starter, he got bullpen use early in Seattle in 2012, but has been getting 20 something starts every year. He could catch some slack as a 5th starter, skipping him in favor of Felix when they have the chance. He's probably ready to be extended somewhat, and Tacoma won't do it.

[Huindekmi]

OutfieldGrass, on 05 March 2013 - 06:17 PM, said:

If we were a contending team I could see wanting a veteran in the final two spots. We aren't. The entire purpose this season is to find out who will be part of the teams future...

I think you'd better call Zduriencik and tell him that this is another prospect development year. I don't think he got the memo.

Have you seen his acquisitions this season?

• Morse - 1 year contract
  
• Morales - 1 year contract
  
• Ibanez - 1 year contract
  
• Shoppach - 1 year contract
  
• Bay - 1 year contract
  
• Andino - 1 year contract
  
• Saunders - 1 year contract (plus mutual option)
  
• Garland - 1 year minor league contract
  
• Bonderman - 1 year minor league contract

Plus, we have Gutierrez and Ryan who are in the last guaranteed contract year with us. There are 8 players virtually guaranteed a spot on the 25-man roster who are on 1 year contracts (Morse, Morales, Ibanez, Shoppach, Andino, Saunders, Guti and Ryan) plus two more (Bay and Garland) who have a very good shot at earning a roster spot with a good spring.

That doesn't seem like a team built to feel out pieces for the future. Especially when you consider how many of the younger players will likely get reduced playing time by virtue of all these acquisitions.

The only guy on the list who seems to have lowered his chances of making the team is Bonderman. I expect that only one of Bonderman or Garland were going to make the club anyway, and even then only if they performed at least as well as the internal candidates. Right now, Garland is doing just that. Ramirez is making a strong case for himself as well.

The team is clearly trying to make a big splash this season. Maybe it's all about trying to save Z's job. Or maybe it's trying to woo back some of the fan base they've lost, knowing that their rebuilding efforts were a year or two from fruition. Maybe they just want to remove the stigma of losing that's made the club undesirable for free agents. Whatever the reason, Z has loaded up on short-term vets and given those "future" players a back seat.

This is a team that is "going for it", even if "it" is nothing more than being competitive.

[Leo Gomez]

Huindekmi, on 07 March 2013 - 09:36 AM, said:

This is a team that is "going for it", even if "it" is nothing more than being competitive.

I think it's a great idea. They'll be competitive, get butts in seats, then have an overwhelming number of players that can be moved on July 31st without hurting the team longterm, assuming we're not actually making a run at the playoffs. At the same time Smoak, Ackley, Saunders, Seager, and maybe a few more players, have a chance to blossom with less pressure than in 2012.

Saves Z's job, makes fans happy (which makes the team $$), could help build up an already strong minor league system, and helps the core grow.

[Vidya]

IOf the Mariners are competitive, I doubt Zduriencik will be willing to trade away any of his veterans for prospects. So I don't see how that would lead to him moving players on one year contracts at that time. Of course, if the team fails to be competitive then he would be more willing to dump them.

I think his plan is to get the team competitive in 2013, so the players he wants to keep will extend with the Mariners for the 2014 season and beyond. I don't expect he's given up on his plan for long term success, this is simply another step in the building of the Mariner organization long term. Morse and Morales are probably the only players that figure in the long term play directly. Getting Morse to sign long term should be the easy part. Getting Morales to sign long term might be more difficult, but I believe Zduriencik is up to it.

Central to what is happening now is that the team have at least a winning season and stay competitive long into September. It would be even better if the team were to make the postseason, and right now that seems very possible.

[M's Watcher]

Nice to see he pitched an inning today. Let's hope he's feeling fine.