[Lonnie]

As the rumors run rampant of a Mariner trade with the Dodgers for Andre Ethier, I thought that it might prove useful to take a close look at this player who most of have seen just a few times.

Let's Rock!

==============================================

What do we know?

Andre Everett Ethier

Position: Rightfielder
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Height: 6' 2", Weight: 205 lb.

Born: April 10, 1982 in Phoenix, AZ

Career Slashline: .290/.362/.476/.838
Career slashline against righties: .311/.387/.526/.913
Career slashline against lefites: .238/.296/.352/.649
Career slashline at home (Dodger Stadium): .309/.378/.525/.903
Career Slashline on the road (NL): .272/.347/.429/.775

Over his career (7 seasons), Ethier has hit:
- 129 homeruns
- 231 doubles
- 19 triples

Also, Ethier has:
- Struckout 678 times
- Walked 378 times

On-base, Ethier has:
- Stolen 21 bases
- Caught stealing 20 times

Annual average, Ethier can be expected to:
- Appear in 143.29 games
- Have 569 plate appearances
- Collect 146 hits
- Crank 18.43 homeruns
- Smack 33 doubles
- Luck into 2.71 triples
- Get rung up (K) 96.86 times
- Take a free pass (BB) 54 times

Signed current contract on the 12th of JUne, 2012. Contract is for $85M over 5 years
'13 - $13.5M
'14 - $15.5M
'15 - $18.0M
'16 - $16.0M
'17 - $18.0M

The contract also includes a 2018 club option, but the 2018 season becomes guaranteed if Ethier has 550 plate appearances in 2017, or, 1,100 plate appearances during the 2017 and 2018 seasons (don't ask, I can't explain it. This is per COTS.).

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What does all that tell us/me/whatever?

That is a lot of data to digest in one sitting, so let me distill it down a bit. Here are the things that we can take for granted based upon what can be found above:
- Being left-handed will be an advantage for Ethier if he is to play at Safeco Field.
- Being 30 years old, he is probably on the backside of his career and a measure of degredation of his skills can be expected.
- He is not overly large
- Over all, his body of work as displayed by his career slashline has been pretty damn good.
- He has a rather large and pronounced left-right split.
- He performs much better at home than he does on the road.
- He is durable
- His career annual average strikeout rate of 17% is acceptable
- His career annual average walk rate of 9.5% is near acceptable
- His career annual average batting eye of .558 (BB/K) tells me that his plate discipline is OK. Not great, but Ok none-the-less.
- His homerun, doubles, and triples numbers are not those of a "big bat".
- His salary for the next 5-6 years is staggering (IMHO) and out of proportion to the Ethier's performance.

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Pulling it all together
I don't think that I have to explain how being left-handed is a good thing while playing at Safeco Field, so I'm not going to waste any bandwidth with that aspect. What I will comment on though is that I believe that there is still a need for a dependable right-hand bat in the batting order to help break up all of the lefties that the M's will run out in 2013.

I really wish that Ethier was 28 years old and not 30, but if wishes were horses Safeco Field would be a pasture filled beyond capacity, and not a baseball field...

I don't know why, but I was under the assumption that Ethier had a bit more size to him. I mean, when you see his absolute lack of any speed as illustrated by his low stolen base numbers, and the amount of times he has been gunned down, it brings to my mind a large plodding player like Montero.

Looking at Ethier's yearly game appearances, it looks like Ethier has not suffered any sort of major injury. Doing some quick research all I could find was a broken pinky in 2010, a knee issue in 2011, and an oblique strain in 2012.

Interestingly, in the second half of the 2011 season, Ethier was quoted as saying that his production was down because of a knee injury that he had been suffering from all season long, and implied that the Dodgers were forcing him to play. The result of this bombshell was a meeting between Manager Don Mattingly, GM Ned Colletti, and Ethier. After the meeting Ethier backed away from his comments and stated that he chose to play on the gimpy knee.

Ethier's left-right batting splits aren't surprising since most players have some sort of disparity between the two, but Ethier's is more than pronounced, it's jaw dropping. A 25% drop in batting average and on-base percentage isn't good, but a 33% drop in slugging is much, much worse. Red flags should (and have) be raised due to Ethier's lefty-righty split.

Here's the thing that makes me scratch my head. I'm having a hard time resolving Ethier's home-road split. You may, or may not know this, but Dodger Stadium is a pitcher friendly park. Using the numbers supplied at espn.com, for every run that the Dodgers scored on the road they scored .875 runs at home. This is not an extreme delta like what is found at Safeco Field (for every road run the Mariners scored .687 runs at home), but it is significant.

So, in such an environment, how has Ethier done as well as he has? Maybe the park plays better for left handers over righies much like Safeco Field does. If that is the case then you would expect to see the Dodger lineup stacked with lefties. This really isn't the case. Just this last season in the big trade with Boston, LA brought in lefties Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to join Ethier and.... well... nobody else of note to hit from the left side. It isn't exactly scientific, but this tells me a lot about how Dodger Stadium plays for lefites, which isn't optimal.

Over at baseballamerica.com they have the results of a 3 year study to determine which hand plays better at each MLB park. Here's how Dodger Stadium faired:

Righties:
- .243/.313/.364/.677
Lefties
- .250/.320/.376/.696

To my very untrained eye, that looks pretty nuetral as far as handedness goes, so maybe my original assertion as to Dodger Stadium playing better for lefties doesn't apply, so the head scratching continues. James Loney manned 1st base for the Dodgers for a long time and is also bats from the left-hand side. Loney also has a home-road split, but it's exactly opposite of Ethier's.

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Summary

If you are able to look beyond Ethier's looney tunes contract, you'll see a player who screams platoon. Put him up against a right-handed pitcher and he becomes a world beater. Send him up against a leftie and he is just a touch better than Brendan Ryan. Thankfully, there are a lot more right-handed pitchers than left, so at least Ethier's platoon split plays to his favor (sort of). As a platoon bat who plays above average defense in right field, Ethier has a lot of value to a team like the Mariners who have an effective right-handed batter in Casper Wells to platoon with.

Still, the contract that Ethier brings has to be taken into consideration, and even though the M's have money to spend I gag at the thought of paying a platoon bat anything north of $6M.

The only way that I can see the Mariners acquiring Ethier without hamstringing themselves in the process is if the Dodgers eat at least $10M a year of his contract.

[CrustyJuggler]

Well pointed write-up, Lonnie. Reading it makes me want Ethier all the less. --haha

[M's Watcher]

Lonnie, on 01 January 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

Still, the contract that Ethier brings has to be taken into consideration, and even though the M's have money to spend I gag at the thought of paying a platoon bat anything north of $6M.

The only way that I can see the Mariners acquiring Ethier without hamstringing themselves in the process is if the Dodgers eat at least $10M a year of his contract.

I really can't imagine why they decided to pay him so much. Maybe it was a last ditch effort to sink the sale of the team, but the previous owner and Ethier made out like bandits. I'm not sure how it makes sense for the Mariners, even as a platoon. It's not so much the money for me, as I'd expect the Dodgers to subsidize heavily. It's more that we don't have enough roster spots to platoon at C/DH/1B and a couple OF spots. Maybe we'd only carry 10 pitchers. Yeah, right.

[Lonnie]

M, on 01 January 2013 - 06:53 PM, said:

I really can't imagine why they decided to pay him so much. Maybe it was a last ditch effort to sink the sale of the team, but the previous owner and Ethier made out like bandits. I'm not sure how it makes sense for the Mariners, even as a platoon. It's not so much the money for me, as I'd expect the Dodgers to subsidize heavily. It's more that we don't have enough roster spots to platoon at C/DH/1B and a couple OF spots. Maybe we'd only carry 10 pitchers. Yeah, right.

As a platoon bat going up against right-handed pitchers, Ethier would be awesome! There is no one else who can be as effective currently on the 40-man roster.

[55panhead]

Lonnie, on 01 January 2013 - 07:20 PM, said:

As a platoon bat going up against right-handed pitchers, Ethier would be awesome! There is no one else who can be as effective currently on the 40-man roster.

As noted Wells makes a great platoon partner with Ethier. Wells made the minimum last year and is probably in line to make $750,000 this year. We can afford to take on 10-12M per year of Ethier's contract and pair it with Wells' inexpensive salary. The net result is an 11-13M a year, 850-900 OPS RFer.

The more contract LAD eats, the higher the price in prospects. The more contract we take on, the less the acquisition cost. The Ethier/Wells platoon would be an asset to this team. The Ms have both money and prospects to spend. It is up to Z to determine if the price is right.

[DocMilo]

55panhead, on 01 January 2013 - 07:34 PM, said:

As noted Wells makes a great platoon partner with Ethier. Wells made the minimum last year and is probably in line to make $750,000 this year. We can afford to take on 10-12M per year of Ethier's contract and pair it with Wells' inexpensive salary. The net result is an 11-13M a year, 850-900 OPS RFer.

The more contract LAD eats, the higher the price in prospects. The more contract we take on, the less the acquisition cost. The Ethier/Wells platoon would be an asset to this team. The Ms have both money and prospects to spend. It is up to Z to determine if the price is right.

He may be a decent "platoon bat" now, but in 4 and 5 years from now he's could be an expensive dead weight. Wells deserves to face righties. Everyone keeps piling on him but no one wants to talk about how in a half season of ABs vs righties he still has a dozen homers and 40 RBI. Raul used to get crap that he couldn't hit lefties. Then one day he started hitting lefties. It was in his age 28 season. Hmmm, how old is Casper?

Let Wells hit in the 6th or 7th spot vs righties and let him hit his 12 homers and drive in his 40 runs. Hit him higher vs lefties and let him mash. The kid is ready for a breakout.

[55panhead]

DocMilo, on 01 January 2013 - 09:05 PM, said:

He may be a decent "platoon bat" now, but in 4 and 5 years from now he's could be an expensive dead weight. Wells deserves to face righties. Everyone keeps piling on him but no one wants to talk about how in a half season of ABs vs righties he still has a dozen homers and 40 RBI. Raul used to get crap that he couldn't hit lefties. Then one day he started hitting lefties. It was in his age 28 season. Hmmm, how old is Casper?

Let Wells hit in the 6th or 7th spot vs righties and let him hit his 12 homers and drive in his 40 runs. Hit him higher vs lefties and let him mash. The kid is ready for a breakout.

Why does Casper Wells deserve to play full time. He has more career plate appearances against RHers than LHers. Against RHers in 343 PAs he has an OPS of .675, and against LHers in 313 PAs he has an OPS of .838. At 28 years old Wells is pretty much what he is.

In regards to Ibanez, he really is a career platoon player.
In his age 28 season Ibanez hit OPSed .944 against lefties. Nice! Total at bats 9.
In his age 29 season he OPSed .783 against lefties. Still a nice number. Total at bats 20
in his age 30 season he OPSed .695 against lefties. Now a larger sample size of 124 at bats. (.945 against righties)
age 31 .683 vs LH .856 vs RH
In his age 32 and 33 seasons Ibanez hit lefties better with OPSes in the mid .700s
After age 34 his OPS against lefties dropped back to the mid .600s
With the exception of his 32 and 33 year old seasons Ibanez was or should have been a platoon player.

Wells is no Ibanez and he is on the wrong side of a platoon. He is very useful in the short side of a platoon, but not as an everyday player.

[DocMilo]

55panhead, on 02 January 2013 - 05:57 AM, said:

Why does Casper Wells deserve to play full time. He has more career plate appearances against RHers than LHers. Against RHers in 343 PAs he has an OPS of .675, and against LHers in 313 PAs he has an OPS of .838. At 28 years old Wells is pretty much what he is.

In regards to Ibanez, he really is a career platoon player.
In his age 28 season Ibanez hit OPSed .944 against lefties. Nice! Total at bats 9.
In his age 29 season he OPSed .783 against lefties. Still a nice number. Total at bats 20
in his age 30 season he OPSed .695 against lefties. Now a larger sample size of 124 at bats. (.945 against righties)
age 31 .683 vs LH .856 vs RH
In his age 32 and 33 seasons Ibanez hit lefties better with OPSes in the mid .700s
After age 34 his OPS against lefties dropped back to the mid .600s
With the exception of his 32 and 33 year old seasons Ibanez was or should have been a platoon player.

Wells is no Ibanez and he is on the wrong side of a platoon. He is very useful in the short side of a platoon, but not as an everyday player.

And in those 343 PAs he drove in 40 runs. That sucks.

By no means am I saying to give the jobs to Wells. I am saying he should have a chance to compete for the job, not as a platoon bat, but as the right fielder. If he wins the job, give him a couple of months to show what he can do. That's the same courtesy that Figgens, Olivo, Smoak and Milton f'en Bradley were given.

There is nothing I would love more than to see the M's acquire talent to improve and take this team to the next level. Two of the "talents" people keep talking about (Upton and Ethier) haven't produced outside of their home ballparks (BOB and Dodger Stadium). They aren't the kinds of players you want to risk trading away your best prospects for and paying the contracts those players have for many years. Ethier is far too expensive. Pass on Ethier, let Wells show what he can do and platoon him with Raul if he needs some days off vs tough righties.

I remember when Ibanez came to town last time. USSM was all over the internet stating Ibanez had no right to face left handed pitching. He had a respectable year vs lefties that year. I just can't believe that most here are willing to write Wells off after a total of 656 career PAs.

[55panhead]

DocMilo, on 02 January 2013 - 07:17 AM, said:

And in those 343 PAs he drove in 40 runs. That sucks.

By no means am I saying to give the jobs to Wells. I am saying he should have a chance to compete for the job, not as a platoon bat, but as the right fielder. If he wins the job, give him a couple of months to show what he can do. That's the same courtesy that Figgens, Olivo, Smoak and Milton f'en Bradley were given.

There is nothing I would love more than to see the M's acquire talent to improve and take this team to the next level. Two of the "talents" people keep talking about (Upton and Ethier) haven't produced outside of their home ballparks (BOB and Dodger Stadium). They aren't the kinds of players you want to risk trading away your best prospects for and paying the contracts those players have for many years. Ethier is far too expensive. Pass on Ethier, let Wells show what he can do and platoon him with Raul if he needs some days off vs tough righties.

I remember when Ibanez came to town last time. USSM was all over the internet stating Ibanez had no right to face left handed pitching. He had a respectable year vs lefties that year. I just can't believe that most here are willing to write Wells off after a total of 656 career PAs.

The Ms were willing to pay Hamilton 25 mill per year for 6 years (two easily obtainable option years). Hamilton has a drug history, and perhaps an attitude history that puts him at risk. He is 31 years old and most were concerned about how he'd age due to his early drug use. His career OPS is .913.

The platoon OPS of Ethier/Wells (450 ABs/200 ABs) is .890. Ethier is a year younger than Hamilton and doesn't have the drug history risk that Hamilton does. If Ethier and Wells are platooned, both players will receive less seasonal wear and tear than Hamilton. We can only speculate how much of Ethier's contract the Dodgers might pick up. Even if zero of Eithier's contract were picked up, we'd have a platoon that would produce close to Hamilton at much less expense and much less risk.

If we were willing to sign Hamilton, we should embrace an Ethier/Wells split.

[DocMilo]

55panhead, on 02 January 2013 - 07:30 AM, said:

The Ms were willing to pay Hamilton 25 mill per year for 6 years (two easily obtainable option years). Hamilton has a drug history, and perhaps an attitude history that puts him at risk. He is 31 years old and most were concerned about how he'd age due to his early drug use. His career OPS is .913.

The platoon OPS of Ethier/Wells (450 ABs/200 ABs) is .890. Ethier is a year younger than Hamilton and doesn't have the drug history risk that Hamilton does. If Ethier and Wells are platooned, both players will receive less seasonal wear and tear than Hamilton. We can only speculate how much of Ethier's contract the Dodgers might pick up. Even if zero of Eithier's contract were picked up, we'd have a platoon that would produce close to Hamilton at much less expense and much less risk.

If we were willing to sign Hamilton, we should embrace an Ethier/Wells split.

Ethier at $13 million or maybe even at $15.5 million isn't a bad deal. It's the $17 million and the $18 million that frighten me.

[Shaggy]

From the Mariners perspective:
FO: "We are leaving no stone unturned looking for possibilities" A couple months later... "We have signed Ibanez"
Fans: "What about Hamilton? Too expensive, drug addled and aging... pass. What about Bourn? We have Guti in center field and he should bounce back this year... pass! Well what about Eithier? He's way too expensive even if the Dodgers eat a portion of his contract. He hits well against righties but take a look at what he does against lefties. We're better off going with Wells?"

From the players perspective:
FA Baseball players: "Why the HECK would I want to go there?"


For some reason the Blood Sweat and Tears song comes to mind:

Quote

You got no money, and you, you got no home
Spinning wheel, spinning all alone
Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn
Ride a painted pony
let the spinning wheel turn

[DocMilo]

Shaggy, on 02 January 2013 - 09:14 AM, said:

From the players perspective:
FA Baseball players: "Why the HECK would I want to go there?"

Top FA's a) want to get paid want to win. For the same money, do you want to play for Detroit or Kansas City?

I would think it fair to say that real expectations for this team to compete was going to be 2014 by any means. It's easy for Geoff Baker to say the M's can compete now by spending a bunch of money, but why would Prince Fielder want to come to Seattle over Detroit? Why would Josh Hamilton choose Seattle over Anaheim? The Detroits and Anahiems of the world are in the thick of it every year. And the money isn't bad either.

If the M's can figure out the .500 thing this year, that's realistically a great goal. If Jack sticks to the plan, there is going to be a lot of young talent on the MLB team in 2014 and a bucket more in the minors. When the M's get to that point, their money is going to look a heck of a lot better in my opinion. Most good FA's are in their peak production years and are hungry to play for contenders.

[55panhead]

DocMilo, on 02 January 2013 - 08:03 AM, said:

Ethier at $13 million or maybe even at $15.5 million isn't a bad deal. It's the $17 million and the $18 million that frighten me.

You also need to realize that $17M in 2017 and $18M in 2018 might look like a fair salary at that time, the way salaries are escalating. With the Ms supposedly getting a new media contract in 2015, they should be able to absorb Ethier's salary. I would also expect some Dodger money to come this way, if a trade is consumated.

This post has been edited by 55panhead: 02 January 2013 - 10:02 AM

[Lonnie]

55panhead, on 02 January 2013 - 10:01 AM, said:

You also need to realize that $17M in 2017 and $18M in 2018 might look like a fair salary at that time, the way salaries are escalating. With the Ms supposedly getting a new media contract in 2015, they should be able to absorb Ethier's salary. I would also expect some Dodger money to come this way, if a trade is consumated.

The problem with this though is that even though the M's might be able to absorb Ethier's contract in the future, it doesn't mean that Ethier deserves the money. It would take some serious tap dancing for Zduriencik to sell that bill of goods to the front office. I know that *I* would laugh as I rejected the idea.

[DocMilo]

55panhead, on 02 January 2013 - 10:01 AM, said:

You also need to realize that $17M in 2017 and $18M in 2018 might look like a fair salary at that time, the way salaries are escalating. With the Ms supposedly getting a new media contract in 2015, they should be able to absorb Ethier's salary. I would also expect some Dodger money to come this way, if a trade is consumated.

That same contract could look like a pair of cement shoes, too for a platoon bat that could be OPSing in the low to mid .700's.

I'll believe the M's are getting a better TV contract when I see it. There has to be a market. Who else is going to bid on the M's TV rights? As far as the money coming this way? The M's have funds available... now. I'm more concerned about the talent going the other way. I would rather the M's hord their talent until they are ready to make a move that puts them over the top. I'm not sure Ethier does that.

[55panhead]

Lonnie, on 02 January 2013 - 10:06 AM, said:

The problem with this though is that even though the M's might be able to absorb Ethier's contract in the future, it doesn't mean that Ethier deserves the money. It would take some serious tap dancing for Zduriencik to sell that bill of goods to the front office. I know that *I* would laugh as I rejected the idea.

Ethier has a contract and gets his money whether he's earned it or not. It is up Z to negotiate some salary relief from the Dodgers. If he can work the money coming our way and/or the acquisition cost, so that it pencils out, then he swings a deal. That "If" is the key.

[Sandy - Raleigh]

While I cannot explain why he has a better OPS at home ... the "how" is very evident. In roughly even time, he has an extra FORTY (40) HRs in LA compared to the road.

He's obviously not a MOTO HR guy. He's been squeaking out 20 HRs a season. But, he has an almost 2:1 edge in HRs at Dodger Stadium compared to the road. That explains about 90% of his home OPS swing. I'd really love to see his spray chart, especially at Dodger Stadium. But, I'd be REAL nervous about any sub-.800 road hitter excelling in Safeco, (regardless if they are a lefty ... not like being lefty made Seager or Saunders great at home, and they were the two best fulltime hitters the Ms had last year).

In general, I would feel better about guys coming from pitchers parks making the transition to Safeco ... but that kind of assumes the pitchers park they are coming from was suppressing their home stats like Safeco has for just about everyone who has passed through in the last decade. If you're used to hitting 30 points light at home than the Safeco "head games" shouldn't be as big an issue.

With Ethier, the fact he has stood the home detriment on its head in LA "could" mean that he understands how to hit in a pitchers park and could translate well. But, he'd be an awfully expensive experiment with a massive down side, (think Milton Bradley with fewer walks) .

[Vidya]

DocMilo, on 02 January 2013 - 10:13 AM, said:

That same contract could look like a pair of cement shoes, too for a platoon bat that could be OPSing in the low to mid .700's.

I'll believe the M's are getting a better TV contract when I see it. There has to be a market. Who else is going to bid on the M's TV rights? As far as the money coming this way? The M's have funds available... now. I'm more concerned about the talent going the other way. I would rather the M's hord their talent until they are ready to make a move that puts them over the top. I'm not sure Ethier does that.

I'm not exactly sure who the competition is, but the competition has increased a lot in the last few years. Will the increase continue for the next few years? Probably yes, but there's also a very significant possibility the opposite will happen. Will the team be sold after the new contract? Ditto. I have no opinion on Ethier, but I expect Zduriencik is seriously pursuing the deal.

I'm with the philosophy that if there's a good deal out there, go for it, and worry about how to put the pieces together later. I don't see Zduriencik deliberately throwing away money, but giving up prospects costs money as well. Scouting and player development are not cheap. Zduriencik seems to think more long term than most GM's, and I like that about him. Yes, the Mariners need to improve their team next year, but there's no reason to go all in at this time. With Zduriencik that time may never come.

[Lonnie]

Sandy - Raleigh, on 02 January 2013 - 11:55 AM, said:

While I cannot explain why he has a better OPS at home ... the "how" is very evident. In roughly even time, he has an extra FORTY (40) HRs in LA compared to the road.

He's obviously not a MOTO HR guy. He's been squeaking out 20 HRs a season. But, he has an almost 2:1 edge in HRs at Dodger Stadium compared to the road. That explains about 90% of his home OPS swing. I'd really love to see his spray chart, especially at Dodger Stadium. But, I'd be REAL nervous about any sub-.800 road hitter excelling in Safeco, (regardless if they are a lefty ... not like being lefty made Seager or Saunders great at home, and they were the two best fulltime hitters the Ms had last year).

In general, I would feel better about guys coming from pitchers parks making the transition to Safeco ... but that kind of assumes the pitchers park they are coming from was suppressing their home stats like Safeco has for just about everyone who has passed through in the last decade. If you're used to hitting 30 points light at home than the Safeco "head games" shouldn't be as big an issue.

With Ethier, the fact he has stood the home detriment on its head in LA "could" mean that he understands how to hit in a pitchers park and could translate well. But, he'd be an awfully expensive experiment with a massive down side, (think Milton Bradley with fewer walks) .

Youse ask for a spray chart, youse gets a spray chart!



Now, just for giggles and grins, here's the same image with Safeco Field's dimensions superimposed on top.