[DaddyO]

Pirata Morado, on 20 April 2012 - 10:14 AM, said:

As usual, and then notice some of the calls on Smoak on the bottom of the ninth, completely the other way around!

I'm getting sick of bad umps!

Yup.

Has anyone else wondered if the Evil Empire (the Yankees, of course) has used their under-the-radar influence to coerce the umps into systematically abusing the M's? Or perhaps the MLB umpires are infiltrated by aliens from the planet Xylon in disguise as humans, aliens to whom the Mariners' logo is somehow offensive? Or, shock of shocks, they just don't respect the franchise and it bleeds through in their umpiring? I dunno what it is, and I know fans in every city complain about the umps, but man, I try with all my might to dismiss what happens as something that just evens out, but it never seems to even out.

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

DaddyO, on 20 April 2012 - 11:42 AM, said:

Yup.

Has anyone else wondered if the Evil Empire (the Yankees, of course) has used their under-the-radar influence to coerce the umps into systematically abusing the M's? Or perhaps the MLB umpires are infiltrated by aliens from the planet Xylon in disguise as humans, aliens to whom the Mariners' logo is somehow offensive? Or, shock of shocks, they just don't respect the franchise and it bleeds through in their umpiring? I dunno what it is, and I know fans in every city complain about the umps, but man, I try with all my might to dismiss what happens as something that just evens out, but it never seems to even out.

it's not just the M's but most of the time bad teams don't get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to these things.

[xarmyguy78]

Pirata Morado, on 20 April 2012 - 09:26 AM, said:

WPA is Winning Probability Added. It is a measure of how much probability of winning the game Félix alone added. It is one of the highest figures you'll ever see!

so then, the higher the number the better?
the number you have for Smoak is that for the whole season? How does that work? Please forgive the ignorant questions I am totally confused

[Vidya]

xarmyguy78, on 20 April 2012 - 11:58 AM, said:

so then, the higher the number the better?
the number you have for Smoak is that for the whole season? How does that work? Please forgive the ignorant questions I am totally confused

Maybe it's time to start another WPA thread. We need something to liven things up here. PM is the resident guru of WPA, but he does have his detractors.

Yes, WPA can be positive or negative. It tries to show which players contributed most to positively winning a game or negatively losing it. In the game last night Felix would have had a positive score, but League a very negative one. The sum total of all WPA for the Mariners would be minus one, and the sum total for the Inidans would be plus one for the game. Am I right Pirata?

[Pirata Morado]

Vidya, on 20 April 2012 - 01:16 PM, said:

Maybe it's time to start another WPA thread. We need something to liven things up here. PM is the resident guru of WPA, but he does have his detractors.

Yes, WPA can be positive or negative. It tries to show which players contributed most to positively winning a game or negatively losing it. In the game last night Felix would have had a positive score, but League a very negative one. The sum total of all WPA for the Mariners would be minus one, and the sum total for the Inidans would be plus one for the game. Am I right Pirata?

Pretty much Vidya, except for the part that you start the game with a 0.5 chance of winning it, so you only need to "add" another 0.5 to win it. Remember that probabilities oscillate between 0 and 1, so if your probability of winning the game is 0, it means that it is CERTAIN that you will lose it, and if it is 1 then it is CERTAIN that you will win it. This only happens when the game ends. At the beginning of the game, you start off with 0.5 (50%) chance of winning it, and from then on, each play "adds" or "removes" probability of winning it. If you do something to help your team you add probability, hence your WPA will be positive, if you do something that hurts your team (like League yesterday), then you "remove" probability, hence your WPA will be negative.

Take for instance yesterday's game:

Pitching:
Félix: 0.522 (more than 50%)
League: -.731 (yes, negative .731)
Luetge: .033
you add them all = -.176 pitching

Batting:
Figgins: -.073 (hurt the team)
Ackley: .09 (helped)
Ichiro: -.15
Smoak: -.164
Olivo: -.115
Saunders: .135
Ryan: -.052
Seager: -.053
Jaso: .056
Total hitting: -.326

Total WPA = Pitching WPA + Hitting WPA = -.176 + (-.326) = -.5

So, you can see that the hitting (no kidding) was the main culprit of losing yesterday's game.

[Pirata Morado]

xarmyguy78, on 20 April 2012 - 11:58 AM, said:

so then, the higher the number the better?
the number you have for Smoak is that for the whole season? How does that work? Please forgive the ignorant questions I am totally confused

Yes, the higher the number the better, and remember it can also be negative, so the higher negative number the worse.

Yes, the number I have in my signature refers to Smoak's whole season WPA, making him our "MVP". You can click the links and see some nice charts with all players. It is the sum of the daily contributions in WPA of all Mariners.

Oh, and please, don't hesitate to ask, there are no ignorant questions, I'm more than pleased to answer them all.

[Leo Gomez]

xarmyguy78, on 20 April 2012 - 08:14 AM, said:

what is WPA?

This is nothing against you, X, but I had to cpoint your for this because it made me lol. Given the crazy WPA wars that happened last season (was it last year?), I didn't think there was anyone around MC that doesn't have the definition of WPA burned in to their brains forever

I envy your WPA purity.

This post has been edited by Leo Gomez: 20 April 2012 - 02:18 PM

[Huindekmi]

Pirata Morado, on 20 April 2012 - 01:35 PM, said:

Yes, the higher the number the better, and remember it can also be negative, so the higher negative number the worse.

Yes, the number I have in my signature refers to Smoak's whole season WPA, making him our "MVP". You can click the links and see some nice charts with all players. It is the sum of the daily contributions in WPA of all Mariners.

Oh, and please, don't hesitate to ask, there are no ignorant questions, I'm more than pleased to answer them all.

Come on, Pirata! How can Smoak be the Mariner's 2001 MVP? He was only 15 at the time. Besides, everyone knows that Brett Boone was the team MVP.

[Pirata Morado]

Huindekmi, on 20 April 2012 - 02:38 PM, said:

Come on, Pirata! How can Smoak be the Mariner's 2001 MVP? He was only 15 at the time. Besides, everyone knows that Brett Boone was the team MVP.

Sorry, I know it's wrong, it should read 2011! My bad.

This post has been edited by Pirata Morado: 20 April 2012 - 02:43 PM

[xarmyguy78]

Pirata Morado, on 20 April 2012 - 01:35 PM, said:

Yes, the higher the number the better, and remember it can also be negative, so the higher negative number the worse.

Yes, the number I have in my signature refers to Smoak's whole season WPA, making him our "MVP". You can click the links and see some nice charts with all players. It is the sum of the daily contributions in WPA of all Mariners.

Oh, and please, don't hesitate to ask, there are no ignorant questions, I'm more than pleased to answer them all.

Thanks I appreciate the info.

Quote

This is nothing against you, X, but I had to cpoint your for this because it made me lol. Given the crazy WPA wars that happened last season (was it last year?), I didn't think there was anyone around MC that doesn't have the definition of WPA burned in to their brains forever

I envy your WPA purity.

Leo, certainly glad I could give you soemthing to laugh about, and no worries I won't get offended. To be totally honest I make attempts to read all the stat-ish stuff in posts, but I usually quit when my brain starts smoking from confusion

[Leo Gomez]

I'm there with you, Mr. X. I don't remember the specifics of what WPA is so much as I remember all the hostility associated with discussion of its merit...or lack of merit (depending on who is doing the talking).

This post has been edited by Leo Gomez: 20 April 2012 - 05:46 PM