[phredmojo]

Vidya, on 19 April 2012 - 08:49 PM, said:

I would like to see Trayvon Robinson promoted right now, but I wouldn't release Figgins to make it happen. I would like to see Delabar out of the bullpen, but that's not a big deal.


Zduriencik has certainly been slow to cut his losses, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it "unwilling." GM's tend to be cautious and fans tend to be very impatient and more willing to make drastic moves. That just the way we are.

Right now this team is far from a 90-100 loss team. Even with the loss tonight, the team is headed towards an 81 loss season. Right now, our most proven impact bats are Ackley and Seager, but we'll have to wait a while for the proven part to happen. OK, maybe if we had signed Fielder we would have that proven impact bat, but would that be enough to get us to the postseason, or would that have been our best move in the long run? To be honest I don't have a real answer, but I have a lot of doubt that the answer to either would have been positive.

they are 7-7 with 5 of the wins against a team as bad if not worse then them. this isn't a .500 team. it may not be a 100 loss team, but it is a 90 loss team

[Vidya]

phredmojo, on 19 April 2012 - 10:01 PM, said:

they are 7-7 with 5 of the wins against a team as bad if not worse then them. this isn't a .500 team. it may not be a 100 loss team, but it is a 90 loss team

Don't look now, but that bad team just beat up on the Angels and is also 7-7 despite losing 5 games to the Mariners. This team could just as easily compete for the postseason as lose 90 games. I'm not going to be so foolish as to predict either, but 80 wins plus or minus about five wins seems reasonable at this point.

ESPN power rankings seem to agree more with you than me because the Mariners dropped to 22nd in their power rankings. I'll agree with them about the Rangers and Tigers, both teams are looking very good right now, but there's still a lot of time for movement up and down those rankings before the season is over. While the 2012 Mariners are far from a powerhouse, and the pitching is showing some weaknesses, I believe both the Mariners and Indians will do better than ESPN expects. ESPN originally ranked them 25th, but moved them up to 19th after the two wins in Oakland. If you look at the range of those rankings, the Mariners would be in the 85 to 90 loss territory. Of course, if you believe ESPN, the Mariners, Indians, and Royals will finish below every east division team in both the AL and NL. Does ESPN have an east coast bias? No doubt about that one.

[Sandy - Raleigh]

Vidya, on 19 April 2012 - 08:24 PM, said:

... The only criticism I have of the analysis is that it's a bit early, so let's not jump to conclusions too quickly. I do hope Wedge takes your advice, but maybe he's already planning to make serious changes in May.

Fair point. But, my view is this. You do not "wait" to establish a rotation of players and bench-utilization. The basic job description of manager is to get the most "aggregate" production out of all of the parts that he has at his disposal. And yes, the two games in Japan may skew things slightly.

But, my opinion is this. Seattle played 7 straight days - Apr 9-15. This is what is on the schedule from day one. If the manager *PLANS* to give Ichiro the 12th off, then that one day off for Ichiro specifically sets the tone for everything that follows. It says to everyone, (including Ichiro), that this is a team effort where NOBODY is above anyone else in terms of playing time. It gives Ichiro a day off smack in the middle of a 7 day span. It also happens to be against a LHP, (Holland), which gives Wells a platoon edge. (Wells actually started in place of Saunders that game, just fyi). NEXT lefty you can sit Saunders and start Wells, if you want.

Wells doesn't have to start "exclusively" against LHP only. But, if you simply get Wells into the lineup replacing Ichiro once, Figgins once and Saunders once ... then your foundation of PT you establish is that these substitutions are not punitive. They are a part of normal operations, where you are attempting to keep your bench guys sharp with semi-regular work ... and you also benefit your subs by giving them ALL days off.

In addition to all of the above, you always have the option of utilizing the benched starters in late game situations. If Olivo is catching, and Jaso is DH, then in the 7+ you've got Ichiro as a pinch-hitter for Olivo and Montero ready to come in and catch.

The key here is that while I believe the rest variable is extremely important for Ichiro specifically ... the "mental" and "team based" and "no veteran entitlement" issues are much more important toward the long term success of the team as a whole.

It's not just a math thing - though Olivo appearing in 13 games while running an OPS of .353 ... while the *TWO* best hitters on the team, Ryan and Seager have appeared in only 12 certainly says the math of the current roster usage is dreadful. The bigger issue is demonstrating ***BEFORE*** it becomes an issue that the team needs come before the individual player needs.

The thing is ... if you give some bench players some EARLY time and they fail ... then you at least have an excuse to ride your veterans that can maintain buy-in from the entire roster. If you just ride your starters until AFTER they slump ... then every roster change becomes a punishment ... and you've just increased pressure on every prospect to produce immediately .... or else. That is NOT a good environment for teaching.

As a manager, you can also leverage "planned" days off as motivation to keep your bench guys mentally tough. On Monday you say, "Casper, I'm planning to start you on Thursday against Texas to give Ichiro a day off. But, you be ready just in case I need you to pinch hit between now and then." Suddenly Casper has extra incentive to stay focused. He's got something to look forward to and is probably much less likely to descend into the funk of "gee ... maybe somebody will get hurt so I can get into a friggin' game".

Ichiro is not attempting to catch Cal Ripken. There is no external excuse to warrant his preferential treatment. And that's the problem. Ichiro starting every day is preferential. Same goes with Figgins. THAT is the problem.

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

Joe Giradi does it with bigger stars than Ichiro in a town way less forgiving than Seattle. Yet he still manages to give Jeter Arod Cano Texeria days off. Wedge is just a horrible manager. I'm starting to think we have the worst manager in baseball.

[Sandy - Raleigh]

Vidya, on 19 April 2012 - 08:49 PM, said:

Zduriencik has certainly been slow to cut his losses ...

By what measure?

With the exception of the Figgins contract, who hung around too long WHERE SOMEONE WAS AVAILABLE to replace them?

I look back and I see players getting 40-50 games to prove value and then they get gone ... and that was before the club had a viable farm to use.

Wlad - traded
Rob Johnson - traded
Snell - dumped
Olson, French, Lueke -- sorry buh-bye

Bradley and Langerhans lasted what ... a month last year?

Jack Wilson got 62 games last year ... but mostly that was just waiting for Ackley to get ready.

My view ... the *ONLY* slowness to Jack's moves have been 100% tied to contract realities. You sign a guy to a 4-year-contract, EVERY GM in baseball is slow to cut their losses ... which means none of them are. It's a relative measure. In final year of contract, Jack has actually been "quick" to cut his losses, (when he had a body to replace the cut).

Of course, some people will say ... "well, the money on Figgins is already spent ..."

My repsonse to that is this. Show me someone who buys a car with payments for 4 years ... who, after driving the car for one year (and then realizing they don't like it, it rides rough, gets poor mileage, it's cup holders are too small for a Big Gulp), doesn't TRADE the car in --- they take it to the dump, buy a completely new car, and continue making payments on the first one. Would you describe the guy who continues making payments until he CAN trade it "slow to cut his losses?" Would you describe the guy who takes the first car to the dump, and keeps making the payment "astute?"

I'm really not speaking to you Vidya. I understand your views are much more nuanced. I'm ranting here a bit in response to voices elsewhere that were suggesting that Millwood should be gone after *ONE* bad outing. Or Kawasaki needs to be playing more because Ryan made one error. I'm just a bit annoyed that what constitutes a "reasonable" amount of time to assess talent seems to have dwindled so much that if it doesn't stop, we're going to hear rumblings that GMs need to be DFAing players when they look bad on a single swing of the bat or throw one wild pitch.

Heck ... I'm just arguing that guys should get a day off here or there. Even with Olivo off to a dreadful start, I'm not suggesting he be DFAed. But when we're talking about not cutting losses two weeks into the season ... I think the "rational train" has jumped the track.

[everblue77]

Vidya, on 19 April 2012 - 08:24 PM, said:

The only criticism I have of the analysis is that it's a bit early, so let's not jump to conclusions too quickly. I do hope Wedge takes your advice, but maybe he's already planning to make serious changes in May. Maybe not, but we all know there is much baseball to be played. Other players may need to go on the DL, go day-to-day, or dive into a prolonged slump. What he needs more than anything is options.

This!

No matter where I go to read on the Mariners the same theme is there....Bench/release Olivo (actually agree here…ha), Promote X, get rid of X, What if, Wedge is horrible, JackZ doesn't understand, etc. Hey, we are only 8% into the season....8%! In my opinion, if Wedge was making major moves this quick I would worry about his mental stability. I'm sure Wedge and Z are both biting their lips and patiently waiting for the "right" time to make some moves. When is that? Well, that's the million dollar question but I think they have it figured out. The 12K fans in the seats may push that time frame a bit too. All in all, there are a lot of exciting players in the wings getting prepped and ready to move. Moving them too quick is just as bad as waiting too long. Just as in all sports the mental aspect & confidence factor is critical. My best guess is there will be major moves only after June and there will be many. I anticipate one or more high prospect trades that will piss fans off as well. The last three months of the season will be a long audition for next year’s squad. I'm having a difficult time even paying attention to the Mariners right now knowing (hoping) that this group that is playing now pretty much means nothing compared to what may be in 3 months or next year.

You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one………..

[Lonnie]

everblue77, on 20 April 2012 - 09:04 AM, said:

You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one………..

The other stuff was great, but if for no other reason, I cPoint for quoting John Lennon.



Lonnie

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

everblue77, on 20 April 2012 - 09:04 AM, said:

This!

No matter where I go to read on the Mariners the same theme is there....Bench/release Olivo (actually agree here…ha), Promote X, get rid of X, What if, Wedge is horrible, JackZ doesn't understand, etc. Hey, we are only 8% into the season....8%! In my opinion, if Wedge was making major moves this quick I would worry about his mental stability. I'm sure Wedge and Z are both biting their lips and patiently waiting for the "right" time to make some moves. When is that? Well, that's the million dollar question but I think they have it figured out. The 12K fans in the seats may push that time frame a bit too. All in all, there are a lot of exciting players in the wings getting prepped and ready to move. Moving them too quick is just as bad as waiting too long. Just as in all sports the mental aspect & confidence factor is critical. My best guess is there will be major moves only after June and there will be many. I anticipate one or more high prospect trades that will piss fans off as well. The last three months of the season will be a long audition for next year’s squad. I'm having a difficult time even paying attention to the Mariners right now knowing (hoping) that this group that is playing now pretty much means nothing compared to what may be in 3 months or next year.

You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one………..

In sports it's always better to get rid of a player a year early than hold on to them a year too long.

Throughout the course of the season we don't know what will happen in 3 months we can be 20 games under .500 or 20 games over .500 or be .500. However, for right now there are things that are going on that leaves one wanting more. At least for me that is the case. I'm a fan and not a coach or a gm and I'm bias for and against players. With that said to me it's makes no sense to not attempt to field the best 9 players each night and try to win games day in and day out. people consider this a "throw away" season since we have a lot of kids playing. but I don't believe that means we should be content with what we've seen so far these first 14 games.

[Vidya]

Sandy - Raleigh, on 20 April 2012 - 07:23 AM, said:

My view ... the *ONLY* slowness to Jack's moves have been 100% tied to contract realities. You sign a guy to a 4-year-contract, EVERY GM in baseball is slow to cut their losses ... which means none of them are. It's a relative measure. In final year of contract, Jack has actually been "quick" to cut his losses, (when he had a body to replace the cut).

Of course, some people will say ... "well, the money on Figgins is already spent ..."

My repsonse to that is this. Show me someone who buys a car with payments for 4 years ... who, after driving the car for one year (and then realizing they don't like it, it rides rough, gets poor mileage, it's cup holders are too small for a Big Gulp), doesn't TRADE the car in --- they take it to the dump, buy a completely new car, and continue making payments on the first one. Would you describe the guy who continues making payments until he CAN trade it "slow to cut his losses?" Would you describe the guy who takes the first car to the dump, and keeps making the payment "astute?"

I'm really not speaking to you Vidya. I understand your views are much more nuanced. I'm ranting here a bit in response to voices elsewhere that were suggesting that Millwood should be gone after *ONE* bad outing. Or Kawasaki needs to be playing more because Ryan made one error. I'm just a bit annoyed that what constitutes a "reasonable" amount of time to assess talent seems to have dwindled so much that if it doesn't stop, we're going to hear rumblings that GMs need to be DFAing players when they look bad on a single swing of the bat or throw one wild pitch.

Heck ... I'm just arguing that guys should get a day off here or there. Even with Olivo off to a dreadful start, I'm not suggesting he be DFAed. But when we're talking about not cutting losses two weeks into the season ... I think the "rational train" has jumped the track.

When I wrote that Zduriencik was slow to cut his losses, I kind of meant that all GM's tend to be that way, but I wasn't clear on that part. No I don't take it personally, because I agree with you. OTH, I will admit to being ready to dump Millwood after one bad outing, but I couldn't find anyone to replace him. We have two starters in the bullpen, and one of them has yet to make an appearance. We have five starters at Tacoma and I wouldn't promote any of them right now. It's only the lack of options that prevented me from calling for his ouster from the rotation.

Ryan may be seeing Kawasaki approaching rapidly in the rear view mirror. We'll see if that improves his performance or he chokes. Millwood and League have to feel bad about single-handedly losing games, but I expect they will deal with it successfully. Figgins has to have a slight smile that Olivo is taking all the heat he used to get. Before this season is over Wedge could be a genius or a bum, and I have no idea which it will be.

Good job on the bad car analogy. Too bad MLB doesn't have a lemon law.

This post has been edited by Vidya: 20 April 2012 - 01:49 PM

[DocMilo]

Yes, that car analogy hits the spot. However, if the car hoped into drive on it's own when in idle and kept raming into things, you've got to get rid of it. Figgins, in my opinion, has needed to go since the Wak fiasco. In the meantime, I think you're spot on Sandy. If Wedge is trying to create a team atmosphere and promote a team approach then everyone on the team needs to be playing. There is zero reason why Liddi can't start 2 to 3 times a week at 3B, DH and 1B. There is zero reasons why Wells isn't playing 2 or 3 times a week in LF, CF and RF. With the way Olivo is playing, there is no reason why he is playing 2 or 3 times a week. The M's have better catching options in Montero and Jaso.

[Vidya]

AlMoStLeGeNdArY, on 20 April 2012 - 09:43 AM, said:

In sports it's always better to get rid of a player a year early than hold on to them a year too long.

Throughout the course of the season we don't know what will happen in 3 months we can be 20 games under .500 or 20 games over .500 or be .500. However, for right now there are things that are going on that leaves one wanting more. At least for me that is the case. I'm a fan and not a coach or a gm and I'm bias for and against players. With that said to me it's makes no sense to not attempt to field the best 9 players each night and try to win games day in and day out. people consider this a "throw away" season since we have a lot of kids playing. but I don't believe that means we should be content with what we've seen so far these first 14 games.

Sandy makes a good argument that Wedge should have started his rotations to get everyone in the line-up, and bench the older guys more than the younger ones. Are you saying Zduriencik should release Olivo and Figgins, or are you just criticizing Wedge for not resting them more? If Wedge started the best 9 he could each night, then why would he rest any of the regulars except in a platoon situation? It seems to me that Wedge is closer to Sandy than you, or am I wrong?

Zduriencik has to deal with issues besides just having the best 25 players on the MLB roster. He has to deal with issues of contracts and the CBA. Players with options can be taken off the MLB roster without losing them to another MLB team for nothing. Zduriencik is building an organization, not just a 25-man MLB team. If he releases all his under performing vets, and promotes all his depth from Tacoma, what does he do when a player is injured? With 5 outfielders currently on the DL between Seattle and Tacoma, I'm glad Figgins is on the team. Yes, we could have promote Robinson, but then we would be out of outfielders on a team than started the season with excess at the position.

Olivo is another issue. BTW, Moore just went on the DL, so our depth at catcher is not as much as it used to be. Also, his salary is not that unreasonable, so he can be traded when the time is right. When will the time be right? When another MLB team desperately needs a catcher, and Zduriencik can get more value for him. Wedge probably likes having Olivo around until he can sort out the situation at catcher better.

I'm cutting Wedge a little slack, because I believe he wants the younger players to push out the OTH vets, not just be given the job. At the end of the season we'll know how his plan worked. The good news is that we're unhappy with a 7 - 7 record, and not projecting a 90 or 100 loss season. OK, we do have one person who uses that unique form of mathematics, but he could be right if the team goes on another one of those two week losing streaks.

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

Vidya, on 20 April 2012 - 03:51 PM, said:

Sandy makes a good argument that Wedge should have started his rotations to get everyone in the line-up, and bench the older guys more than the younger ones. Are you saying Zduriencik should release Olivo and Figgins, or are you just criticizing Wedge for not resting them more? If Wedge started the best 9 he could each night, then why would he rest any of the regulars except in a platoon situation? It seems to me that Wedge is closer to Sandy than you, or am I wrong?

I think they should both be benched. Olivo should possibly be cut. Figgins in the field isn't doing anything special and at the plate he's still isn't the guy we signed 3 years ago. So I wonder why they're both out their. I also believe that the older guys should be rested more Ichiro for example shouldn't lead the team in innings played this season. We all know ichiro is an iron man type of player but he's 38 yrs old. Also I think ryan should be benched for kawaski or liddi.

Quote

Zduriencik has to deal with issues besides just having the best 25 players on the MLB roster. He has to deal with issues of contracts and the CBA. Players with options can be taken off the MLB roster without losing them to another MLB team for nothing. Zduriencik is building an organization, not just a 25-man MLB team. If he releases all his under performing vets, and promotes all his depth from Tacoma, what does he do when a player is injured? With 5 outfielders currently on the DL between Seattle and Tacoma, I'm glad Figgins is on the team. Yes, we could have promote Robinson, but then we would be out of outfielders on a team than started the season with excess at the position.

I'm not glad Figgins is on the squad in the least. He's becoming a deterrent to us seeing the kids actually play. I mean for example tonight he's starting in CF like seriously ? How is that better than having Wells or Saunders out there (granted wells is in LF tonight). But as for the injury situation injuries happen especially throughout a long season like baseball. You can't expect everyone to stay healthy when injuries help you gotta adjust to them. As for who to promote incase injuries becomes a problem it looks as though Chiang maybe starting to put it together.

O

Quote

livo is another issue. BTW, Moore just went on the DL, so our depth at catcher is not as much as it used to be. Also, his salary is not that unreasonable, so he can be traded when the time is right. When will the time be right? When another MLB team desperately needs a catcher, and Zduriencik can get more value for him. Wedge probably likes having Olivo around until he can sort out the situation at catcher better.

What's there to sort out at the catcher spot ? Montero is the best catcher on the team as well as have the best bat on the team (potentially). To me Montero should be our every day starter the same way I felt Ackley should of been up with the big club coming out of ST last season. Also there's times when you're not going to get the value from a player that you want and you gotta cut your loses. Olivo is that player Figgins has been that player and ryan is becoming that player.

Quote

I'm cutting Wedge a little slack, because I believe he wants the younger players to push out the OTH vets, not just be given the job. At the end of the season we'll know how his plan worked. The good news is that we're unhappy with a 7 - 7 record, and not projecting a 90 or 100 loss season. OK, we do have one person who uses that unique form of mathematics, but he could be right if the team goes on another one of those two week losing streaks.

What can Wells or Montero do to push Figgins and Olivo off the roster? What about Jaso ? If their putrid player isn't enough of a reason to bench them then IDK what is. Seager is our hotest hitter right now and he's still getting benched. Since wedge is treating the young players with kiddie gloves and is platooning half the team. But it's not just Olivo/figgins/Ryan who's been getting a pass. Smoak has been getting a pass also other than that 4 hit night he's be horrible (all singles BTW). He's currently leading the team in strike outs.

I mean if a player can bat .125 and is still handed a starting job on this roster and consistently is being backed by the Manager. There isn't anything in the world Montero can do in order to get the job it's clear as day that Olivo is an albatross. I'm not even sure why he's even playing. It's not even rationale at this point. And it's not like we can expect anything from Olivo it's Olivo. It's not as though he's some stud who's struggling to start the season even when Olivo is his normal self he's still a bad player.