Let's be simplistic and say the odds of a player throwing a no hitter is the same as the odds of him giving up a base hit to an average hitter, to the power of however many hitters he would face in an average no hitter.
For example, Felix Hernandez to date has faced 253 batters and given up 55 hits. This includes walks, errors and other non-AB wackiness. 21.74% of hitters Felix has faced have gotten a hit. If we assume for simplicity's sake that this reflects his rough chances of giving up a hit, then we can assume that on average he has a 78.26% chance of escaping any given plate appearance without a hit. Take that 78.26% chance and multiply it to the 27th power, to reflect the chance of having faced 27 batters and not allowing a hit to any of them, and you get a very small number, 00.13%.
If Felix were to throw a no-hitter, he'd probably walk some batters. Since he averages 2.6 walks per 9, I took 78.26% and multiplied it to the 29.6th power (27 minimum batters + the 2.6 batters he'd potentially walk) to get 0.07%. That looks bleak, but the season is long and given the number of remaining games, I project Felix will take the hill roughly 24 more times before the season's done. Take that 99.93% chance he doesn't throw a no-no, and take it to the 24th power. You get 98.3%, the chance he doesn't throw a no hitter this season... meaning he has a 1.7% chance of doing it... remote but certainly not impossible.
Do the same for the other starters. We're stretching in assuming that Michael Pineda can comfortably throw 9 innings given how protectedly light his workload has been, but assuming his 39 hits allowed in 205 batters (19%) reflects his true talent ability over 9 frames, his chance of throwing a no-no this season (assuming he isn't shut down early) is a relatively high 4.8% (around 20 to 1), better than your chances of hitting a desired roulette number in a given spin (37 to 1).
The chances of other hurlers like Jason Vargas and Doogie FISTER MD aren't as high, obviously, but when you put everyone together, the rough chances of any Mariner throwing a no-no this season are 7.2%... again, remote but certainly not impossible.
The 2011 Seattle Mariners: At least they're not the 2010 Seattle Mariners!
Bobby "Spuds" LaFromboise
(as dubbed by Lonnie).
2011 stats: 29.2 IP, 2 HR, 13 BB, 23 K, 3.84 FIP with AA Jackson. Named to the 2011 Southern League All Star team!
Adopted but grown and gone
: Doogie FISTER, M.D., specializing in groundballs. NOW MLB CERTIFIED!!!
Net Runs scoring system shelved until further notice.