[arnefc]

I was at last night's game, and when Felix went perfectly through the first 3 innings, I wondered if he could be headed for a no-hit game, especially given how terrible the White Sox have been. He wasn't too far away. Then today comes news of Verlander's no-no and Gallardo's near-miss. It seems like Felix and Pineda are both quite capable of a no-hitter, Bedard just had one through five innings, and it makes sense that the M's are going to put one together sometime soon-18 years now since Bosio's, and there's less and less offense in MLB generally.

Any predictions on whether we'll see one in 2011? If yes, from who?

[MtGrizzly]

arnefc, on 07 May 2011 - 05:02 PM, said:

I was at last night's game, and when Felix went perfectly through the first 3 innings, I wondered if he could be headed for a no-hit game, especially given how terrible the White Sox have been. He wasn't too far away. Then today comes news of Verlander's no-no and Gallardo's near-miss. It seems like Felix and Pineda are both quite capable of a no-hitter, Bedard just had one through five innings, and it makes sense that the M's are going to put one together sometime soon-18 years now since Bosio's, and there's less and less offense in MLB generally.

Any predictions on whether we'll see one in 2011? If yes, from who?

With this offense and this defense, chances are the M's will be no hit before they inflict a no hitter on another team.

[senior octobre]

I think Pineda could do it but they'd probably take him out once his pitch count hit 110.

[Lonnie]

What is being seen MLB wide is a renaissance of pitching that actually started in 2010. With the advent of tighter controls on performance enhancing drugs, pitchers now have the upper hand in their battles against opposing offenses.

On the Mariners there are two pitchers who have the level of talent to take on an opposing offense and step off the mound with a no-hitter, and that is Felix and Pineda. If I were to handicap the likelyhood of either guy throwing a no hitter I'd say that Felix is likely to do so at any time from this point forward. Pineda is much less likely to do it this year, but once he completely learns how to pitch at the MLB level his chances of throwing a no-no go way up. Pineda's success so far in 2011 has been about talent and not so much cognitive pitching.

Lonnie

[senior octobre]

I was checking out the baseball-almanac page on no hitters and it says that Nolan Ryan had 24 starts where he had a no hitter broke up in the seventh inning or later 24 times ! Randy Johnson 11 times.

Vida Blue of Oakland (AL) was 21 Years 1 Months old when he tossed one. Amos Rusie of New York (NL) was 20 Years 2 Months when he tossed one. The youngest in their respective leagues.

Pineda is now 22.

Brandon Morrow, I thought could pitch a no-no. Many poo-pooed this thought but Morrow almost tossed one last year. It was broken up by a Evan Longoria single with two outs in the ninth.

In Morrow's first big league start in September of 2008, he went 7.2 no hit innings vs the Yankees.

[Gomez]

Let's be simplistic and say the odds of a player throwing a no hitter is the same as the odds of him giving up a base hit to an average hitter, to the power of however many hitters he would face in an average no hitter.

For example, Felix Hernandez to date has faced 253 batters and given up 55 hits. This includes walks, errors and other non-AB wackiness. 21.74% of hitters Felix has faced have gotten a hit. If we assume for simplicity's sake that this reflects his rough chances of giving up a hit, then we can assume that on average he has a 78.26% chance of escaping any given plate appearance without a hit. Take that 78.26% chance and multiply it to the 27th power, to reflect the chance of having faced 27 batters and not allowing a hit to any of them, and you get a very small number, 00.13%.

If Felix were to throw a no-hitter, he'd probably walk some batters. Since he averages 2.6 walks per 9, I took 78.26% and multiplied it to the 29.6th power (27 minimum batters + the 2.6 batters he'd potentially walk) to get 0.07%. That looks bleak, but the season is long and given the number of remaining games, I project Felix will take the hill roughly 24 more times before the season's done. Take that 99.93% chance he doesn't throw a no-no, and take it to the 24th power. You get 98.3%, the chance he doesn't throw a no hitter this season... meaning he has a 1.7% chance of doing it... remote but certainly not impossible.

Do the same for the other starters. We're stretching in assuming that Michael Pineda can comfortably throw 9 innings given how protectedly light his workload has been, but assuming his 39 hits allowed in 205 batters (19%) reflects his true talent ability over 9 frames, his chance of throwing a no-no this season (assuming he isn't shut down early) is a relatively high 4.8% (around 20 to 1), better than your chances of hitting a desired roulette number in a given spin (37 to 1).

The chances of other hurlers like Jason Vargas and Doogie FISTER MD aren't as high, obviously, but when you put everyone together, the rough chances of any Mariner throwing a no-no this season are 7.2%... again, remote but certainly not impossible.

[arnefc]

Gomez, on 17 May 2011 - 01:45 PM, said:

The chances of other hurlers like Jason Vargas and Doogie FISTER MD aren't as high, obviously, but when you put everyone together, the rough chances of any Mariner throwing a no-no this season are 7.2%... again, remote but certainly not impossible.

Interesting to actually quantify this. I know it's not likely this year, but taking ~7% and multiplying by 18 to cover the seasons since Bosio's no-hitter points toward the likelihood that the dice will turn up and a Mariner will throw a no-hitter pretty soon; or, right, that there'll be one thrown against the M's for the first time since '96 sometime soon.

[Pirata Morado]

arnefc, on 17 May 2011 - 03:59 PM, said:

Interesting to actually quantify this. I know it's not likely this year, but taking ~7% and multiplying by 18 to cover the seasons since Bosio's no-hitter points toward the likelihood that the dice will turn up and a Mariner will throw a no-hitter pretty soon; or, right, that there'll be one thrown against the M's for the first time since '96 sometime soon.

I don't think you can apply that. I mean, not because there has happened a lot of time before the last time a Mariner tossed a no-hitter it becomes more probable.

This is a Poisson process, which means that it has something called "lack of memory" which in few words mean that no matter what has happened before, the probability is the same.

Think of it as a player coming to bat. If he is 0 for 3 the probability of him getting a single in his next at bat is the same as if he is 2 for 3 in the game.

[senior octobre]

Bosio and Johnson tossed theirs in the Kingdome. The current crew play half their games at Safeco. This should make a difference in the numbers as opposed to say Fenway, where they've had no-no's but compared to other venues, I can't imagine Fenway being average.

[Gomez]

Pirata Morado, on 17 May 2011 - 04:43 PM, said:

I don't think you can apply that. I mean, not because there has happened a lot of time before the last time a Mariner tossed a no-hitter it becomes more probable.

This is a Poisson process, which means that it has something called "lack of memory" which in few words mean that no matter what has happened before, the probability is the same.

Think of it as a player coming to bat. If he is 0 for 3 the probability of him getting a single in his next at bat is the same as if he is 2 for 3 in the game.

Indeed. This concept is the crux of the old Gambler's Fallacy. The cards and dice have no memory: Your odds of an given outcome are the same whether you've hit 6 in a row, busted 6 in a row or anything in-between.

Granted, there's a tiny bit more variability in batters facing pitchers, but generally speaking the chances of a no-no don't build up the way a fault line builds up pressure before a big quake. They are as remote as always every single game.

[Vidya]

They do seem to be on the rise this year. One factor is that the league batting average for the American League is the lowest it's been since the DH rule was established. It's not just the Mariners having problems with offense.

[senior octobre]

Gomez, on 18 May 2011 - 08:58 AM, said:

Indeed. This concept is the crux of the old Gambler's Fallacy. The cards and dice have no memory: Your odds of an given outcome are the same whether you've hit 6 in a row, busted 6 in a row or anything in-between.

Granted, there's a tiny bit more variability in batters facing pitchers, but generally speaking the chances of a no-no don't build up the way a fault line builds up pressure before a big quake. They are as remote as always every single game.

Now you tell me there is no maturity of the odds ?

[OutfieldGrass]

You could make a strong case that Felix is one of the top 2-3 pitchers in the game right now. He is an amazing talent. However, I have always considered Felix to be a finesse pitcher with a power pitchers arsenal. I have nothing to back that up. Just something I have always thought when watching him pitch. Anyway, if I had to choose which pitcher would throw a no hitter first I would go with Pineda.

[arnefc]

OK, I was wrong about an M's no-hitter last year, and now it's the White Sox who register a perfect game against the home team. I happened to be not too far away from Safeco Field around 3, checked the game, saw Humber had at least a no-hitter going after 8, and at a quick glance it seemed to be a perfect game, so I headed down. I didn't get to the area until 10-15 minutes after the game ended, and heard one fan say, "Can't we even get a walk. I mean, come on!"

[arnefc]

OK, now we get the no-hitter. I guess we'll have to take it a year late. Here's the play-by-play via Yahoo.

[Pirata Morado]

Félix did it! Amazing!