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NFL 2010 Stochastic model

#61
User is offline   senior octobre 
Posted 02 January 2011 - 08:37 AM

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View PostPirata Morado, on 30 December 2010 - 07:44 PM, said:

Even if by some kind of miracle I can somehow win, I think it's fair to say that I've been totally destroyed by the monkey. Congratulations!

Seven games for the season doesn't amount to a hill of beans, when you pick every game. In reality, if you were in the legal betting parlours in Nevada, you wouldn't pick every game. In fact, there might be only a game or two per week that you really like. Picking the chimp style is not an attempt to rub it in, but to show how unpredictable the NFL is. I'm not doing much better then the chimp in the money league I'm in. I don't know jack about football, other then I enjoy it. It keeps me busy until Baseball Spring Training. NBA ? That is a horse of a dfferent color all together ! Good Luck in week 17 Pirata ! I enjoyed it and perhaps we'll do it again next year !
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players

Victor Sanchez at Clinton LumberKings: 0-1, 4 GS, 21.1 in, 20 H, 9 r, 6 er, 4 bb, 14 k, as of 5/15
Mike Zunino at Tacoma Rainiers 28 g, 109 ab's 19 r, 25 h, 8 2b, 2 3b, 6 hr, 31 rbi, 55 tb, 10 bb, 38 k, (.229/.304/.505/.839) as of 5/15
Taylor Ard at Clinton LumberKings 30 g, 98 ab, 13 r, 17 h, 7 2b, 1 hr, 9 rbi, 27 tb, 13 bb, 16 k, (.173/.277/.276/.552) as of 5/15
Luis Liberato - probably DSL

Former adopt-a-players:

Johan Limonta now with York of the Indy League
Greg Halman RIP
Tom Wilhelmsen now closing for the big club

King 5 Weather @ Safeco Field
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#62
User is offline   senior octobre 
Posted 03 January 2011 - 04:13 AM

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Well, the Seahawks won and they are in the playoffs. They host the Saints this coming Saturday. A caller on the Softy Show (950 KJR AM Sports Radio 10-1 Weekdays) figured that if all the wild card teams win during the early rounds of the playoffs and Seattle wins that the Seahawks could host the NFC Championship Game. Who would have thunk it ?
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players

Victor Sanchez at Clinton LumberKings: 0-1, 4 GS, 21.1 in, 20 H, 9 r, 6 er, 4 bb, 14 k, as of 5/15
Mike Zunino at Tacoma Rainiers 28 g, 109 ab's 19 r, 25 h, 8 2b, 2 3b, 6 hr, 31 rbi, 55 tb, 10 bb, 38 k, (.229/.304/.505/.839) as of 5/15
Taylor Ard at Clinton LumberKings 30 g, 98 ab, 13 r, 17 h, 7 2b, 1 hr, 9 rbi, 27 tb, 13 bb, 16 k, (.173/.277/.276/.552) as of 5/15
Luis Liberato - probably DSL

Former adopt-a-players:

Johan Limonta now with York of the Indy League
Greg Halman RIP
Tom Wilhelmsen now closing for the big club

King 5 Weather @ Safeco Field
0

#63
User is offline   Pirata Morado 
Posted 03 January 2011 - 10:45 AM

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View Postsenior octobre, on 02 January 2011 - 08:37 AM, said:

Seven games for the season doesn't amount to a hill of beans, when you pick every game. In reality, if you were in the legal betting parlours in Nevada, you wouldn't pick every game. In fact, there might be only a game or two per week that you really like. Picking the chimp style is not an attempt to rub it in, but to show how unpredictable the NFL is. I'm not doing much better then the chimp in the money league I'm in. I don't know jack about football, other then I enjoy it. It keeps me busy until Baseball Spring Training. NBA ? That is a horse of a dfferent color all together ! Good Luck in week 17 Pirata ! I enjoyed it and perhaps we'll do it again next year !

Thank you, I really enjoyed it too. Congratulations on your win.

I think that the line is that makes it un-predictable, mainly because real NFL teams don't care a thing about the line, all they care for is the W. Many times the team ahead was winning by one point and could try for a Field Goal in the last minutes of the game, only to make it harder for the other team, but the line was 5 points so that team "lost".

The correlation between my median points in the simulation and the line was close to 0.9 all season long.
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#64
User is offline   senior octobre 
Posted 04 January 2011 - 06:57 AM

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This post has been edited by senior octobre: 10 January 2011 - 05:22 AM

Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players

Victor Sanchez at Clinton LumberKings: 0-1, 4 GS, 21.1 in, 20 H, 9 r, 6 er, 4 bb, 14 k, as of 5/15
Mike Zunino at Tacoma Rainiers 28 g, 109 ab's 19 r, 25 h, 8 2b, 2 3b, 6 hr, 31 rbi, 55 tb, 10 bb, 38 k, (.229/.304/.505/.839) as of 5/15
Taylor Ard at Clinton LumberKings 30 g, 98 ab, 13 r, 17 h, 7 2b, 1 hr, 9 rbi, 27 tb, 13 bb, 16 k, (.173/.277/.276/.552) as of 5/15
Luis Liberato - probably DSL

Former adopt-a-players:

Johan Limonta now with York of the Indy League
Greg Halman RIP
Tom Wilhelmsen now closing for the big club

King 5 Weather @ Safeco Field
1

#65
User is offline   Schuxu 
Posted 16 January 2011 - 11:13 AM

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This has to be the worst defensive performance of the whole season.
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MC Adoptee Denny Almonte
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