The Hidden Value of Defense, The new OBP Options

[Vidya]

I just bought a copy of the Maple Street Press 2010 Mariners Annual. In it is an article titled, The Hidden Value of Glove Work, How Defense Affects Pitching written by Vince Gennaro. The article goes a little beyond the title and discusses Zduriencik plan to build an organization capable of efficiently competing with the big boys of the American League.

To compete a team needs to build it's organization to play in it's MLB ballpark. The Red Sox go after RH power hitters and don't value defense in LF because that's what fits their ballpark. What type of team fits Safeco? Defense, especially outfield defense. I would also add LH power, but that is not covered in the article.

What attribute is least valued in the free agent market? It used to be OBP, but that boat has long since left the harbor. It's defense. Vince concluded that run prevention through defensive play can be purchased in the FA market for about one third the price of run production through offensive performance. So not only is defense cheap, it is tailored for the ballparks the Mariners play in, namely Safeco (81), McAfee Coliseum (9), and Petco Park (3). That's 57.4% of their games played.

He goes beyond the usual defensive metrics that drive most of us crazy and brings up a very important point in how defense affects pitching. It turns out that starting pitchers on teams in the top quartile of defensive teams average 6.0 IP per games. Starting pitchers in the bottom quartile average 5.5 IP per game. That's an average of 80 more innings per year pitched by the bullpen on those bottom quartile teams. Those extra innings are not pitched by the best pitchers in the bullpen, but the worst. In fact, the teams with the worst defenses averaged 35 fewer innings pitched by their top four relievers than teams with the best defenses.

It was no accident that among the first of Zduriencik's moves were the addition of Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez to the team. They were regarded as two of the best flyball catchers in baseball. In one year under Zduriencik, the Mariners went from 21 runs above MLB average in UZR in 2008 to 86 runs below average in 2009. The Mariners vaulted from the 20th-best defense in MLB to the best defensive team in that one year.

Getting back to the previous paragraph, in 2009 the starting pitchers pitched 56 more innings than in 2008. The top 4 relievers pitched 27 more innings in 2009 than 2008, and the "other" relievers pitched 65 less innings in 2009 than 2008. For some reason Mariner pitchers logged 17 more innings pitched in 2009 than 2008. It probably had something to do with the extra 11 road games they won in 2009.

Of course adding Cliff Lee to the rotation will also help the over-all team defense, including the number of innings pitched by the back of the bullpen. Looking at the bullpen roster for 2010 I see a lot less question marks and more depth than we had in 2009. Injuries to the pitching staff in 2009 were huge. I'm looking at the 2010 roster and seeing a huge improvement in pitching at Tacoma, which means we will have a lot more depth to cover injuries in 2010. It's a miracle the Rainiers did as well as they did in 2009 with all the pitching losses to the Mariners.

[DrDetecto]

He goes beyond the usual defensive metrics that drive most of us crazy and brings up a very important point in how defense affects pitching. It turns out that starting pitchers on teams in the top quartile of defensive teams average 6.0 IP per games. Starting pitchers in the bottom quartile average 5.5 IP per game.

Brilliant! :- ) :guinness:



This post has been edited by DrDetecto: Mar 21 2010, 03:57 AM

[DaddyO]

[Leo Gomez]

Speaking of defense, there's a great article on ESPN.com today about Gutierrez and Jack Z. It talks about Guti's defensive preparation and just how good he really is, in addition to how Z was interested in him from the first time he saw him as a minor leaguer, which is interesting.

Also, since we're talking about ESPN articles, there was a good one on Jamie Moyer a couple of days ago. It points out that he is in heated competition for the Phillies' #5 starter spot, and if he makes the cut he'd be the oldest non-knuckleballer to consistently start in MLB ever. Pretty remarkable and the article's a really good read. Anyway, just thought I'd pass that along. Here's the link.

[Gomez]

My latest issue of Heater Magazine (subscrip only, sorry) indicates that Moyer has the lead on Kyle Kendrick and Jose Contreras for the #5 SP slot. It helps that Charlie Manuel's an old school manager and likes the veterans.

[Vidya]

I bought the 2010 Baseball Prospectus today. The article on the Mariners begins:

No team in baseball improved its win total from the year previous by as many games as the Mariners did.

and nobody noticed.

The article went on to discuss how Zduriencik used defense to build that team with limited resources. In discussing the 2009 season it was noted

the pitching staff had some gaudy ERAs that were not reflective of their true skill level.

Washburn had a 2.64 ERA with the Mariners last season and a 7.33 ERA with the Tigers. Certainly there were other factors that caused this increase, but it was very predictable that his ERA would increase. His K/9, W/9 and GB/FO numbers were below average.

The Seattle Mariners under Zduriencik are the extreme case of the value of defense. I can't think of any other GM who values defense like Zduriencik does. I know many teams, managers, and GM's talk about defense, but none of them have shown with action (aka money) that they believe in the value of defense. Bavasi and the Mariners broadcast team talked about defense and how good many of the players were at it, but the numbers told a different story. BP talked about Bavasi's favorite shortstop:

Yuniesky Betancourt, a player with a reputation for being a pretty good defender. The reality, at least as far as it's reflected in the data we have available to us, decisively disagrees,

His real numbers were at the bottom of the league for shortstops.

MLB teams clearly value offensive numbers. Next are starting pitcher numbers, and after that are closer numbers. After that, players are battling for scraps, and the often vain hope of securing a MLB paycheck. What's it going to take to change the thinking of MLB professionals? How about a World Series appearance for a team built primarily around defense?

One final note from the BP article. Bill Stoneman replaced Bill Bavasi at Anaheim. In three years he built a World Series winning team from the wreckage of Bavasi's management style. With this moves this off-season, Zduriencik seems to be trying to beat that record by one year, but don't tell anyone. It's a secret.

[lisa mariner]

What's it going to take to change the thinking of MLB professionals?

Well, for starters, we could get my mantra out there... you know...
Chicks dig the long ball, but real women love leather.

I could make t-shirts

But, as you eluded to, the best thing would be for the M's to (in the words of Mark McLemore) "do what they do".
Then eyes will finally open.

[DocMilo]

One final note from the BP article. Bill Stoneman replaced Bill Bavasi at Anaheim. In three years he built a World Series winning team from the wreckage of Bavasi's management style. With this moves this off-season, Zduriencik seems to be trying to beat that record by one year, but don't tell anyone. It's a secret.

But Stoneman at least kept a lot of the parts that Bavasi brought in, did he not? How many 40 man roster players are left in the system from the Bavasi days? 2?

[MfaninAlaska]

The thing is with this new push for defense it reminds me alot of the Oakland hey days when it was all about OBP.... the thing that will make this whole "defense" first strategy work is turning in to an actual world series title. As it stands much like the value of OBP that Oakland made popular it got them got regular season success but never translated over to the playoffs because you need a full completely rounded team. You can't just focus on one thing and expect to regularly beat well rounded teams like NY, Boston, and Tampa. Tampa has one of the best defenses around but they haven't done it at the expense of offense.

We'll see how the M's plan ends up working out.

[SABR Matt]

The thing is with this new push for defense it reminds me alot of the Oakland hey days when it was all about OBP.... the thing that will make this whole "defense" first strategy work is turning in to an actual world series title. As it stands much like the value of OBP that Oakland made popular it got them got regular season success but never translated over to the playoffs because you need a full completely rounded team. You can't just focus on one thing and expect to regularly beat well rounded teams like NY, Boston, and Tampa. Tampa has one of the best defenses around but they haven't done it at the expense of offense.

We'll see how the M's plan ends up working out.

I don't think Zduriencik's plan is to stay all-defense-first all-the-time...he's just doing this right now because he can steal value and get the Mariner franchise competitive more quickly that way. I think ultimately, he wants to round out the roster...but you can't fix everything in two years...we had too many organizational problems when he arrived.

[Dag Gummit]

I don't think Zduriencik's plan is to stay all-defense-first all-the-time...he's just doing this right now because he can steal value and get the Mariner franchise competitive more quickly that way. I think ultimately, he wants to round out the roster...but you can't fix everything in two years...we had too many organizational problems when he arrived.

Further, as it has been the Oakland strategy for a few years now, great defense works to make pitchers look better than they really are, which means you get more value back in trade for them. The M's haven't had a legit way to capitalize on it, yet, but I'd bet if Bedard hadn't got hurt and Washburn had more suitors beyond his geographical preferences, we would have seen bigger trades at the deadline.

[Vidya]

But Stoneman at least kept a lot of the parts that Bavasi brought in, did he not? How many 40 man roster players are left in the system from the Bavasi days? 2?

You asking me? Zduriencik has definitely moved quickly to reorganize the team, but the circumstances may have been quite different from what Stoneman faced.

[Vidya]

Zduriencik has already done much more than just get a lot of good defense glove guys. He as a recent Cy Young winner and last year's Cy Young runner-up at the top of his rotation. Bavasi tried to build the offense around Sexson and Beltre. He kept saying he was looking for LH power, but never seemed to find it. This year's starting lineup has many LH and switch hitting bats.

The title of the thread is "The Hidden Value of Defense" so I haven't focused on the other aspects of Zduriencik's plan. Oakland had greater budget restrictions than the Mariners, and even greater budget restrictions than many other AL teams. The point is they were able to consistently able to compete at a level much greater than their salary level.

The point about Zduriencik and the Mariners is the improvement they made from 2008 to 2009. The thing about winning the World Series wasn't to prove a point, and isn't critical to comparing the value of defense to the money required to purchase it. Also, a team with an extreme amount of pitching depth will not be affected by defense as much as a team with normal pitching depth. If your 9 through 12 pitchers are almost as good as your starters and top bullpen pitchers, then the effect of defense is lessened.

[DocMilo]

The thing is with this new push for defense it reminds me alot of the Oakland hey days when it was all about OBP.... the thing that will make this whole "defense" first strategy work is turning in to an actual world series title. As it stands much like the value of OBP that Oakland made popular it got them got regular season success but never translated over to the playoffs because you need a full completely rounded team. You can't just focus on one thing and expect to regularly beat well rounded teams like NY, Boston, and Tampa. Tampa has one of the best defenses around but they haven't done it at the expense of offense.

We'll see how the M's plan ends up working out.

I think another thing that may factor in Oaklands success or lack of playoff success is player age and experience. Oakland is always on the cheap and NYY and Boston are not. Had Oakland had the resources to keep some of their better players maybe they have more long term success. Then again, they don't get the big trades either. Having players that are a little more experienced has to account for something. Look at Minnesota. Had the Twins been able to afford to keep Santana maybe they are a little bit different caliber team right now.

This post has been edited by DocMilo: Mar 24 2010, 05:09 AM

[TopCat]

I find it fascinating that somehow the idea of defense having value is somehow new or novel rather hilarious.

[KingCorran]

What's new is how everyone is buying into it. Newsflash - defense isn't underrated anymore. Z, if he really has his act together, is already (behind curtains and closed doors) moving on to the next market inefficiency.

[Vidya]

I'm going to concede that defense has been given a lot more value by MLB teams lately. Zduriencik did seem to get all the defensive cookies before the 2009 season, and this last winter made sure he locked in Jack Wilson at short. He also got Figgins to replace Beltre in the infield. Other than that, most of his moves this last winter were to boost pitching and offense.

I do have one final point to make on the value of defense. Last season the Mariners were clearly the worst offense in the American League. The Royals may have been a close second, but the Mariners were the worst. It also seems that the defense independent metrics put the Mariners as slightly below average in pitching. Yet the team won 87 games. That's the true value of defense for the 2009 Mariners.