Kotchman's DPs and baserunning, Is Branyan suddenly a cripple or what? Options

[Taro]

Watcher ...

Wish I could chime in, but I'd have predicted that Zduriencik wouldn't come anywhere near Kotchman. So what do I know about his 1B plans.

Kotchman over Carp is one of my least-favorite moves of the last year - much worse than bringing in Cedeno and Olson. That is really taking MLB™ philosophy to an extreme. It ain't easy for a hitter to break into the majors in this regime.

I don't like the Kotchman deal in a vaccuum. He'd probably make less in FA than in arbitration, and he won't be worth his contract unless he breaks out offensively.

Its just not a good bet. I'd MUCH prefer the risk/reward with Branyan at the same price and have Carp ready in AAA to take over if he gets hurt.

[Taro]

Fun Fact:

Russell Branyan's career GIDP per 691 PAs is FIVE.

Ya, thats the same rate as Ichiro. And yes thats about 15 outs better per year than Kotchman.

Being an extreme TTO flyball hitter means that Brayan just doesn't offer those easy two-hoppers and its just another area of his game that is underrated. IMO Wak made an excellent choice slotting him #2 behind Ichiro last season.

Branyan is also a FAR better baserunner. Hes league average, compared to Kotchman who is basically -7 runs over a full season.

[lisa mariner]

Kotchman is going to hit into 20 double plays and it's going to seem like 50 to you good amigos.

Bat him third - at least then we'd get a run out of it more times than not

[DrDetecto]

LOL Lisa :- )

Five! 5!? ... whoa.

Casey Stengel used to put GIDP's front and center in his lineup decisions, by the way. He'd say, yer can't put two slow guys back ta back cuz the double plays ull kill yer.

If I've got Kotchman in the lineup, I'm running in front of him a lot. CS's or no.

This post has been edited by DrDetecto: Jan 30 2010, 02:49 PM

[M's Watcher]

Watcher ...

Wish I could chime in, but I'd have predicted that Zduriencik wouldn't come anywhere near Kotchman. So what do I know about his 1B plans.

Kotchman over Carp is one of my least-favorite moves of the last year - much worse than bringing in Cedeno and Olson. That is really taking MLB™ philosophy to an extreme. It ain't easy for a hitter to break into the majors in this regime.

I am hopeful that Jack is open-minded about competition in ST. Obtaining Kotchman should send the message to Carp of the need to play good defense (as in work on it in the off-season). Naming Kotch as THE firstbaseman after the trade hopefully doesn't entitle him to it out of ST, just makes him the one to beat. That said, I hope Carp plays better D and rips the cover off the ball in ST, and Kotchman hits far better than expected. If that plays out, then it's all good. I just see Carp with more offensive upside, maybe only because he hasn't proven himself to be less (like Kotchman to date).

[IcebreakerX]

Yeah, but why trade AND pay 6 million for a straw man black hole when you could do the same with some other defensive wizz first baseman.

Oh, wait. That's an oxymoron.

[CrustyJuggler]

I am hopeful that Jack is open-minded about competition in ST. Obtaining Kotchman should send the message to Carp of the need to play good defense (as in work on it in the off-season). Naming Kotch as THE firstbaseman after the trade hopefully doesn't entitle him to it out of ST, just makes him the one to beat. That said, I hope Carp plays better D and rips the cover off the ball in ST, and Kotchman hits far better than expected. If that plays out, then it's all good. I just see Carp with more offensive upside, maybe only because he hasn't proven himself to be less (like Kotchman to date).

I don't see how Kotchman isn't named THE first baseman after seeing the obvious contentment of the FO when it comes to our 1B situation (or non-situation). They are going to pay him almost 4MM dollars all in all.

Those slick fielding/no power/hit-into-double-plays-all-day-long first basemen must be tough to come by it seems.

I wasn't too torn up about the move when it first went down but the more info we get on Kotchman and his obvious and in-correctable (in some cases: power, etc) deficiencies are starting to make me wonder. Like why did he look so much more attractive than Branyan with a Carp backup plan? Especially when the price would have almost certainly been very similar.

Trust in Jackie-Z I suppose. The guy is a magician. I guess I'll sit back and watch Kotchman put up a .300/.360/.450 line with 20 HRs and 100RBI.

This post has been edited by CrustyJuggler: Jan 30 2010, 08:39 PM

[M's Watcher]

Like why did he look so much more attractive than Branyan with a Carp backup plan?

Jack and staff must have seen Branyan's pix of his back and were negatively impressed. We all loved his first half last year, but both Russ and Wak were at fault for playing him with his injured back in the second half. He hurt the team with his poor play. Carp as a back-up? It doesn't matter if you don't take the injured player off the field. In Kotchman they must feel they have defense every day, and maybe they can revive his perceived offensive upside. In Carp, maybe they feel his 1B defense is like a DH, so maybe their plans for him are post-Griffey DH. Or maybe he works to become a better defender. Should that be easier than Kotchman becoming a better hitter?

[Sandy - Raleigh]

Why does everyone continue to paint the Branyan situation as a choice only by Z? The news on the street is that Branyan was offered a one-year deal of some kind and "insisted" on two years.

That is NOT Z turning down Branyan. That is Branyan turning down Z.

The other part of this equation is that prior to 2009, the mass response to Branyan was "well, he might make a palatable platoon guy." Yet, because of a great HALF, he's being treated like we passed on Pujols.

I think it was phred that said - "If he gets even a single at bat against a left handed pitcher, then signing Branyan was an idiotic move." (or something to that general tone).

The truth about Branyan is he has ZERO upside - and a TON of downside. He just HAD his career year. And that finished up with him putting up Sexson-esque numbers for a month and then hitting the DL. Today, he's a year older.

Yeah, 140 games of Branyan is probably going to beat 140 games of Kotchman. But 40 games of Branyan hitting like Sexson puts Z in a position where he CANNOT get Kotchman without giving up a lot more value. When you MUST trade (or the perception is you must) - things get more expensive. Just ask Bavasi about Bedard.

[Taro]

Why does everyone continue to paint the Branyan situation as a choice only by Z? The news on the street is that Branyan was offered a one-year deal of some kind and "insisted" on two years.

That is NOT Z turning down Branyan. That is Branyan turning down Z.

The other part of this equation is that prior to 2009, the mass response to Branyan was "well, he might make a palatable platoon guy." Yet, because of a great HALF, he's being treated like we passed on Pujols.

I think it was phred that said - "If he gets even a single at bat against a left handed pitcher, then signing Branyan was an idiotic move." (or something to that general tone).

The truth about Branyan is he has ZERO upside - and a TON of downside. He just HAD his career year. And that finished up with him putting up Sexson-esque numbers for a month and then hitting the DL. Today, he's a year older.

Yeah, 140 games of Branyan is probably going to beat 140 games of Kotchman. But 40 games of Branyan hitting like Sexson puts Z in a position where he CANNOT get Kotchman without giving up a lot more value. When you MUST trade (or the perception is you must) - things get more expensive. Just ask Bavasi about Bedard.

Branyan doesn't need to repeat his .400+ BABIP first half, he just needs to be at career averages to be a huge upgrade over Kotchman. There is the injury risk, but you have Carp in AAA.

The bottom line is that Kotchman is close to a RL player unless he improves offensively (which is difficult to visualise given his issues). There just isn't any value to that kind of player unless you are paying him close to the MLB minimum. Anything close to $4mil is liable to be a massive overpay.

[muddyfrogwater]

I can understand the angst. It's an extreme shift to the left. Does Kotchman gain any advantage from park effects? It doesn't sound like it. Is it possible to over adjust the team for the park? Maybe? I figure Kotchman is just the epitome of what Jack is building on. That's what Jack's spaghetti tastes like. If Kotchman finds his way to the bench then so be it.

[CrustyJuggler]

Why does everyone continue to paint the Branyan situation as a choice only by Z? The news on the street is that Branyan was offered a one-year deal of some kind and "insisted" on two years.

That is NOT Z turning down Branyan. That is Branyan turning down Z.

The other part of this equation is that prior to 2009, the mass response to Branyan was "well, he might make a palatable platoon guy." Yet, because of a great HALF, he's being treated like we passed on Pujols.

I think it was phred that said - "If he gets even a single at bat against a left handed pitcher, then signing Branyan was an idiotic move." (or something to that general tone).

The truth about Branyan is he has ZERO upside - and a TON of downside. He just HAD his career year. And that finished up with him putting up Sexson-esque numbers for a month and then hitting the DL. Today, he's a year older.

Yeah, 140 games of Branyan is probably going to beat 140 games of Kotchman. But 40 games of Branyan hitting like Sexson puts Z in a position where he CANNOT get Kotchman without giving up a lot more value. When you MUST trade (or the perception is you must) - things get more expensive. Just ask Bavasi about Bedard.

Points taken. Concerning the contract rumors involving Branyan; it was very early in the offseason when he turned down the 1 year deal. Then, as Branyan tells it, there wasn't much negotiating and the Kotchman deal really shocked him. I believe he really wanted to stay and if given the chance he probably would have accepted that one year deal if he would have known how things would ultimately flesh out.

But I agree.. that's the fault of Branyan and his agent. Seems like a TON of players misjudged the market this year and payed the price. It still sucks because I think we all enjoyed watching Branyan play this last year.

[Taro]

Points taken. Concerning the contract rumors involving Branyan; it was very early in the offseason when he turned down the 1 year deal. Then, as Branyan tells it, there wasn't much negotiating and the Kotchman deal really shocked him. I believe he really wanted to stay and if given the chance he probably would have accepted that one year deal if he would have known how things would ultimately flesh out.

But I agree.. that's the fault of Branyan and his agent. Seems like a TON of players misjudged the market this year and payed the price. It still sucks because I think we all enjoyed watching Branyan play this last year.

I agree with you and Sandy on this, but the key point is that Branyan is still a free agent.

Hes not going to get two years from any club so there isn't any reason we can't sign him.

Maybe I'm misjudging the market, but I really doubt that Kotchman would get $3.5mil+ as a FA. You don't lose anything by DFA'ing him. I think the baserunning+GIDP aspects are being overlooked in his case... Hes not a 1.-1.5 WAR 1B once you look deeper, hes much closer to 0-0.5 WAR (barring offensive improvement).

[lisa mariner]

...But I agree.. that's the fault of Branyan and his agent. Seems like a TON of players misjudged the market this year and payed the price. It still sucks because I think we all enjoyed watching Branyan play this last year.

Even I, self-proclaimed lover of defense and small ball, will miss Russell's moon shots as well as that handsome face ...











In hind-sight, I'm thinking this was the kiss of death...






This post has been edited by lisa mariner: Jan 30 2010, 09:14 PM

[Gomez]

Let's not forget, guys... while Carp had a nice little stretch there, he's only had half a season in AAA, and jury's out on whether he'd be ready to play everyday, contribute at the plate and provide enough defensive value as well. The M's are rolling the dice if they camp on Carp at 1B, and why do that if they can go find a 1-2 year stopgap who has proven he can hit to some extent at this level, and can add great value on defense?

Also, why don't others use EqBRR? Where's the methodology to determine said stat? What's their key criteria for determining "good" and "bad" baserunning plays, and what sorts of runners have the advantage in such criteria? BP's cast its fair share of doubt over the years, and this is clearly a cherry-picked stat.

This post has been edited by Gomez: Jan 31 2010, 06:43 PM

[Taro]

Let's not forget, guys... while Carp had a nice little stretch there, he's only had half a season in AAA, and jury's out on whether he'd be ready to play everyday, contribute at the plate and provide enough defensive value as well. The M's are rolling the dice if they camp on Carp at 1B, and why do that if they can go find a 1-2 year stopgap who has proven he can hit to some extent at this level, and can add great value on defense?

Also, why don't others use EqBRR? Where's the methodology to determine said stat? What's their key criteria for determining "good" and "bad" baserunning plays, and what sorts of runners have the advantage in such criteria? BP's cast its fair share of doubt over the years, and this is clearly a cherry-picked stat.

You should do research before unfairly discrediting a stat.

Dan Fox created EqBRR. Heres his earlier work on baserunning:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...bases-part-iii/


EqBRR:
Equivalent Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table. EqBRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).

EqGAR:
Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of baserunning opportunities. EqGAR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix and considers the following scenarios: Runner on first only with less than two outs, ground ball or bunt is hit to an infielder where a hit or an error is not credited Runner on second only with less than two outs, ground ball or bunt is hit to an infielder where a hit or an error is not credited Runner on third only with less than two outs, ground ball or bunt is hit to an infielder where a hit or an error is not credited

EqSBR:
Equivalent Stolen Base Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of their baserunning opportunities. EqSBR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix and considers both stolen base attempts and pick-offs.

EqAAR:
Equivalent Air Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of their baserunning opportunities. EqAAR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix, is park adjusted, and considers the following scenarios: Runner on first with second and third unoccupied, less than two outs, a line drive, pop-up, or fly ball is caught by an outfielder Runner on second but not third, less than two outs, a line drive, pop-up, or fly ball is caught by an outfielder Runner on third with other bases optionally occupied, less than two outs, a line drive, pop-up, or fly ball is caught by an outfielder

EqHAR:
Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would have been expected given the number and quality of opportunities. EqHAR considers advancement from first on singles, second on singles, and first on doubles and is adjusted for park and based on a multi-year Run Expectancy Matrix.

EqOAR:
Equivalent Other Advancement Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented. Other Advancement takes into consideration a player's opportunities and advancement on the basepaths due to wild pitches, passed balls, and balks. The run value of this advancement is based on a multi-year run expectancy matrix and park-adjusted.

[Taro]

If you only trust a stat that been stamp-approved by one of the more popular blogs then here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/r...he-bases-part-1

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/r...he-bases-part-2

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/r...-3-the-laggards

[Taro]

A simpler way of presenting this argument would be Rs scored.

League-average Rs scored per 691 PAs is 86.

Kotchman's career average per 691 is 72.

Now naturally there are many situational factors that come into Rs scored, and while Kothchman is a worse than league average hitter in SLG he has a 'dead-average' career OBP. Despite that his Rs scored are putrid due to the fact that hes consistently one of the worst baserunners in baseball.

[Taro]

A double-play is worth -0.47 runs (actual value is higher but this subtracts the value of an average out).

If Kothman is a fulltime player (say 650 PAs) he grounds out +6 over the average player.

Thats basically -3 runs over a full-season. Subtract the 6 runs he loses per year from non-SB baserunning and you are talking 9 runs he loses to his overall WAR.

Thats nearly a full Win, and when you talking about 1-1.5 WAR player to start with that doesn't leave a whole lot of value.

[Taro]

Fangraphs include SB+CS in their WAR calculations, so if you want to adjust for that then go to this site:

EQBRR-EQSBR= The baserunning runs that aren't yet captured by WAR.

Kothman loses around 6 runs (7 runs including SB/CS) per year in non-SB value and about 3 runs per year in GIDP.