The Stat M's FO seems to look as importent, RE24 and REW Options

[DrNaka]

RE24 and REW are stats that take account of the 3out situation (0.1,2) and 8 runner on base situations (0,1,2,3,12,13,23,123).

So it will take in account whether the batter (or the pitcher) plays smart baseball or not. It is not effected by close games or by innings like WPA.

Here the glossary from fangraghs:
RE24 (runs above average by the 24 base/out states): RE24 is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players' RE24 for individual plays is added up to get his season total RE24.

REW (run expectancy wins): REW is the same as RE24, except it has been converted to a wins scale.

Now look at the worst 5 batters in REW:
Name Pos RE24 REW
Adrian Beltre3B -15.10-1.69
Ronny CedenoSS-15.14-1.58
Kenji JohjimaC-12.93-1.401
Wladimir BalentienOF-11.74-1.23
Yuniesky BetancourtSS-9.85-0.900

They are all gone.

So is it for pitchers:

Name RE24 REW
Chris Jakubauskas-14.36-1.570
Carlos Silva-14.17-1.440
Luke French-13.24-1.420
Miguel Batista-10.39-1.071
Garrett Olson-8.84-0.880.
Roy Corcoran-7.39-0.850
Denny Stark-3.24-0.390
Not all gone but many of them are not on roster now.

Coincident?

[Huindekmi]

CODE

Name      Pos   RE24    REW
-----------------------------
Beltre     3B  -15.10  -1.69
Cedeno     SS  -15.14  -1.58
Johjima     C  -12.93  -1.401
Balentien  OF  -11.74  -1.23
Betancourt SS   -9.85  -0.900

Jakubauskas P  -14.36  -1.570
Silva       P  -14.17  -1.440
French      P  -13.24  -1.420
Batista     P  -10.39  -1.071
Olson       P   -8.84  -0.880.
Corcoran    P   -7.39  -0.850
Stark       P   -3.24  -0.390

[DocMilo]

CODE

Name      Pos   RE24    REW
-----------------------------
Beltre     3B  -15.10  -1.69
Cedeno     SS  -15.14  -1.58
Johjima     C  -12.93  -1.401
Balentien  OF  -11.74  -1.23
Betancourt SS   -9.85  -0.900

Jakubauskas P  -14.36  -1.570
Silva       P  -14.17  -1.440
French      P  -13.24  -1.420
Batista     P  -10.39  -1.071
Olson       P   -8.84  -0.880.
Corcoran    P   -7.39  -0.850
Stark       P   -3.24  -0.390

This always drives me nuts when people do this. They say, "Hey look, put it in a code box. It will look nice." I put things in a box, and it still looks like crap. What do you do to make it align?

[SABR Matt]

You have to carefully count out the spaces. All the code box does is change the font from something that doesn't have equal width to something that does...so you have to then count the spaces and characters and force the columns to line up by hand.

[Idahomariner]

Coincident?

Maybe, but is it also possible that they came to the same conclusion when watching those players as every fan did? They either flat out suck, or arent well suited for the ballpark.

[Pirata Morado]

Thanks Dr. Naka, I'm glad to see we have a GM that understands the important aspects of baseball! Thanks for sharing it.

[Huindekmi]

This always drives me nuts when people do this. They say, "Hey look, put it in a code box. It will look nice." I put things in a box, and it still looks like crap. What do you do to make it align?

Open up Notepad on your computer (it uses a fixed width font).
Lay out the text however you'd like it using spaces to separate everything. DO NOT USE TABS!
Copy the whole shebang and post it into a code box.

Or do like Matt and obsessively count your spaces... one spacey, two spacey, three spacey...

I find Notepad easier.

[SABR Matt]

LOL...it's not hard for me to count...as I'm entering the text, it's a simple "1-2-3-4-5...1-2-3-4-5"...it's no faster for me in notepad...

[DrDetecto]

[DrNaka]

I looked at Jose Lopez and Jr. RE24 and REW too DrD.(As you indicated in SSI)

Very interesting.

If you look at OPS+ Jose Lopez is the better batter. Jr 95, Lopez 102.

But when you look at RE24 Jr. is the better batter. Jr. 2.66 Lopez 1.52.

M's gave JR another year of contract. (I know it is not only for his work on the field...)
But I think that M's FO liked his situational batting.
On the other side there are rumores of Lopez's trade.

I think the M's FO see Jr. as the smarter player for sure.

This post has been edited by DrNaka: Nov 24 2009, 12:05 AM

[tradedollarnut]

Please provide us with some stats for ballplayers that are still here so we can see who is best and who is worst from players we expect to be with the club next year.

[DrNaka]

Please provide us with some stats for ballplayers that are still here so we can see who is best and who is worst from players we expect to be with the club next year.

Just go fangraphs and see.

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=M...009&month=0

This post has been edited by DrNaka: Nov 24 2009, 03:06 PM

[M's Watcher]

It is interesting to me to see not just these numbers, but also the distribution. We only had five batters with REW >0.50 and two of them were our platoon DH tandem. So like with other measures, we understand that half our lineup was neutral to negative contributors. Other teams have more positive offensive contributors, even lousy teams. It is obvious where we need to improve.

[DrNaka]

It is interesting to me to see not just these numbers, but also the distribution. We only had five batters with REW >0.50 and two of them were our platoon DH tandem. So like with other measures, we understand that half our lineup was neutral to negative contributors. Other teams have more positive offensive contributors, even lousy teams. It is obvious where we need to improve.

Yes.
To improve the offense M's need to replace the negatives to zero or positive.

But the zero at RE24 and REW are average.
An average player costs 8 to 9 mil in FA.

[DrNaka]

With Beltre gone and Figginsb coming that is improvement in REW.

CODE

Name      Pos   RE24    REW
-----------------------------
Beltre     3B  -15.10  -1.69
Figgins    3B   19.27   1.81

Bay        LF   45.37   4.19

Beltre to Figgins is a 3.50 win improvement.

Bay would improve by 6+ wins when we consider we had Balentien etc at LF.

[Pirata Morado]

Well done Dr. Naka!

[Huindekmi]

I'm still not convinced that Bay's numbers would hold up in Safeco. I honestly expect his raw numbers at the plate to be very reminiscent of Beltre.

For the record, Beltre's home OPS over the course of his career were:
.694
.778
.745
.703
.646

Had his home numbers matched his road stats, I doubt anyone would be critical of his performance. Heck, we'd probably be willing to pay anything to re-sign our .800+ OPS 3B with great defense and positive WPA to another contract.

[KingCorran]

There's two issues at hand.

First, not every RH power hitter fails in Safeco. Both 2B- and HR-type RH power hitters can succeed here... see Jose Lopez, Edgar Martinez, Bret Boone, Mike Cameron, Jay Buhner, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Guillen, Richie Sexson (for 2 years, at any rate). You get the idea! We can't just assume very RH power hitter who comes to Safeco will automatically fail... for one, it's just not true. (Plus, with half the games coming outside of Safeco, having no RH power would create a major weakness on the road).

For a second thing, though, we just can't live with that. If we don't have a legit RH power threat in our lineup, then facing an opponent with the game on the line means our LH threats have to face down something as simple as a LOOGY. That would be a bit annoying... Jose Lopez alone isn't going to cut it in that department.

[KingCorran]

Oooh, ooh. Read THIS POST.

*applauds*

[Huindekmi]

There's two issues at hand.

First, not every RH power hitter fails in Safeco. Both 2B- and HR-type RH power hitters can succeed here... see Jose Lopez, Edgar Martinez, Bret Boone, Mike Cameron, Jay Buhner, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Guillen, Richie Sexson (for 2 years, at any rate). You get the idea! We can't just assume very RH power hitter who comes to Safeco will automatically fail... for one, it's just not true. (Plus, with half the games coming outside of Safeco, having no RH power would create a major weakness on the road).

For a second thing, though, we just can't live with that. If we don't have a legit RH power threat in our lineup, then facing an opponent with the game on the line means our LH threats have to face down something as simple as a LOOGY. That would be a bit annoying... Jose Lopez alone isn't going to cut it in that department.

In no way did I ever say that all RH hitters will fail at Safeco. In fact, I've been advocating for a RH power threat in our lineup. See other threads where we've discussed a lineup including Branyan, Johnson and every other lefty we can find.

That said, I see too many similarities between Bay and Beltre. Both are the kind of pull-hitting, mid-range power threat that turns into warning track power at Safeco. If you want a RH power hitter for this team, it has to be the no-doubt kind of power hitter. Oddly enough, Sexson was a better fit for Safeco than Beltre. And he proved it his first two seasons, posting a 135 and 105 OPS+ at home. Sexson had other flaws, though, and I'm certainly not looking for another one just like him. Buhner fit that mold as well.

Edgar did well because he was a spray hitter. All over the park. Into every gap. That's what Boone did as well. Bay isn't a guy in this mold. These guys are pretty rare though. You don't find that many guys with Edgar's talent. Or Boone's chemist.

And before you go advocating Jose Lopez as a great example of a RH player in Safeco, you'd better go check his home/away splits. A career .689 OPS at home? Ugh!