Ackley, Biggio, and Rose Options

[DrDetecto]

In 1975, my childhood heroes in Cincy were off to a slow start. The hated Dodgers were always dangerous, and already in May the season was in peril. Nobody could figure out what was wrong.

Sparky Anderson pulled one of the masterworks of all-time managing: he wanted to get George Foster's bat in the lineup, so he told Pete Rose to move to third base. As I remember the story, the Reds went about 41-10 over the next two months, as the stacked Reds' lineup simply overpowered the globe over the next two years.

..................

How feasible is it for Ackley to learn how to play second (third) base .... over the next year or two? I remember a guy who launched a dynasty when he did it

In the majors

Between games.

[mcadmin]

Ackley a #1 Overall? at SSI

[muddyfrogwater]

Take the best player no matter the position. D, you must be older than me. Fernando Valenzuela was the stud when I was a kid.

[MtGrizzly]

I love the optomistic angle as much as the next guy but...if the only examples that one can find where this type of move has worked are HOF-level guys, then I'm not sure how applicable it is. If I were GMZ and someone brought this to me, I would say something like this:

"Fine, there are examples of HOF level guys that have made this type of transition work. All that tells me is that it can work. Hell, Babe Ruth was a tremendous pitcher that made the transition to the greatest hitter in the game. Doesn't mean that I'm going to take the ball from Felix and tell him to hit the batting cages.

This tells me nothing of the probability of success or the inherent risk factors involved. I'm not averse to throwing some pasta agains the wall and seeing if it sticks but I am not doing it with the #2 overall draft pick. I've got three recent high first rounders that may well turn into two relief pitchers and a bust. I need more of a sure thing from this pick.

Here is what I need you to do. Find some examples of when this type of transition failed. Find some examples where this type of a transition was a wash. Then analyze the results and tell me why it works for some guys and doesn't work for some other guys. Then analyze Ackley and tell me which group he is likely to fall in. Come back to me when you have some quantifiable data and a recommendation you are willing to risk your job on."

[Sandy - Raleigh]

Sorry Griz - there is no such thing as a "sure thing" at ANY pick in ANY draft.

AROD was not a sure thing.
Griffey was not a sure thing.
Strassburg is not a sure thing.

For every "sure thing" #1 overall that succeeds, there are (historically), two that flop.

Brien Taylor was every bit the "sure thing" that Strassburg is being hyped up to be today.

Al Chambers went #1 overall in 1979 (to Seattle). He was a "sure thing", too.

Brad Komminsk, selected #4 overall in 1979 was considered a "sure thing" by 1983, after posting 1029 OPS in 413 ABs in AAA at age 22. Komminsk got his picture on Sports Illustrated, (blame them if you wish), and was supposed to be the next Aaron or Mantle or Dimaggio, depending on who you asked.

BK ended his career with a .637 OPS in 376 games. The 23 HRs in 986 ABs did not qualify him for Cooperstown.

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The key point in all of this is NOT that Ackley can play 2B - nor that such position moves occur. The key point in this is that Ackley was originally a CF, and moved to 1B *NOT* because of defensive short-comings, but because of defensive adaptability - and because the team didn't have a better option. Carolina actually has been built on pitching and defense in recent years, so there were excellent defensive guys almost everywhere.

MOST players are moved to 1B to hide their lack of defensive skills. That wasn't the case with Ackley.

[eric k]

I figure if the guy is good enough to play CF and has the bat they say he does take him and worry about position later

[greatdane1984]

I figure if the guy is good enough to play CF and has the bat they say he does take him and worry about position later

what about Franklin Gutierrez?

[Kelly]

Sandy, while I appreciate the point of your response, the fact that Al Chambers and Alex Rodriguez were both #1 overall picks does not mean they were viewed similarly. Al was a money saving overdraft, while Alex was significantly hyped at the time of the draft. Let me put it this way, Alex was as much of a sure thing in the draft as Richie Sexson was a sure thing as a 4 year $50M contract. Alex really was an exception, like LeBron James or O.J. Simpson.

[MfaninAlaska]

I think the situation with Ackley and playing 2nd is taking a turn in a different direction then I would imagine.

Its not a matter of whether to draft Ackley or not, from all reports he's pretty much a lock to go at #2 behind Strasburg. If the M's draft him, and play him at 2nd base isn't going to make him a better or lesser hitter, its going to be a case of maximizing his value. IF the M's draft Ackley and play him at 2nd 5 games out of 6 and play him in the outfield that 1 game a week, they're not hurting him in any way. It'll be known pretty quickly whether he has the ability to learn to be a second baseman, if he can't then he goes back to outfield full time where he would have been all along.

Either way the M's are going to be drafting him for his offense first and foremost, because of the glut of outfielders already in the system, IF he can make a switch to second then his bat becomes even more valuable.

[CrustyJuggler]

I think the situation with Ackley and playing 2nd is taking a turn in a different direction then I would imagine.

Its not a matter of whether to draft Ackley or not, from all reports he's pretty much a lock to go at #2 behind Strasburg. If the M's draft him, and play him at 2nd base isn't going to make him a better or lesser hitter, its going to be a case of maximizing his value. IF the M's draft Ackley and play him at 2nd 5 games out of 6 and play him in the outfield that 1 game a week, they're not hurting him in any way. It'll be known pretty quickly whether he has the ability to learn to be a second baseman, if he can't then he goes back to outfield full time where he would have been all along.

Either way the M's are going to be drafting him for his offense first and foremost, because of the glut of outfielders already in the system, IF he can make a switch to second then his bat becomes even more valuable.

What he said.

[eric k]

what about Franklin Gutierrez?

What I meant was if the guy is a good enough athlete to play CF I'm not worried about a position, if he can hit we'll find room for him, LF, 2B, DH, etc

[DocMilo]

Come back to me when you have some quantifiable data and a recommendation you are willing to risk your job on."

Data shmata. The drug companies have data.

[Vidya]

Hell, Babe Ruth was a tremendous pitcher that made the transition to the greatest hitter in the game. Doesn't mean that I'm going to take the ball from Felix and tell him to hit the batting cages.

Another great idea from the Griz. Felix doesn't have to give up pitching or learn to play first base. He can DH on the days he is not starting.

Not only does it give us more RH power at the DH position, it frees up a roster space for another position player. Prentice Redman would no longer be blocked by already having 5 outfielders on the roster. Then again, the downside is we would miss his bat at Tacoma.

[DrDetecto]

Good posts all 'round ...

In our zeal to point out the fact that Ackley's still a #2 if playing OF, we whiffed on Grizzle's main pernt, methinks...

In Grizzle's defense, my argument was that you are PROBABLY looking at an infielder when you draft Ackley. So you lay down your clipboards and forget about the #3-8 candidates in the draft. You start working on who you're taking with the #27 (?). According to Gammons, this is what the Mariners have actually done...

My man Grizzle just doesn't agree. He (evidently) thinks you project Ackley as an outfielder, with conversations about the infield "interesting but not that relevant."

Grizzle's visceral reaction to Ackley's position switch is that you're talking about extra-gifted talents when you're talking about the Roses and Biggios who made it work out WELL.

Dr. D has a visceral reaction to Grizzle's argument as well... if interested, here's the wormhole to SSI ...