Ichiro 200 hits, probabilistic model Options

[Vidya]

Ichiro and Figgins have both picked it up a bit lately and that's got to be good news. It doesn't seem to be good enough to get the team more than a couple of wins per week, but we'll see.

I think it's important that Ichiro reach 200 hits this year, but his quest just hasn't produced much interest this year. He's only extending a record, not setting one, so that may be part of it. The Wakamatsu debate has taken control of the discussion lately, and Ichiro is barely a side show.

Me, I'm just hoping the Rainiers can pick up a few wins during their Central Time Zone road trip.

[Bandwagon Fan]

The good news:

One of the worst slumps in Ichiro's career ended on July 31. Based on game logs, here are the most severe worst slumps of his career to date:

48 games, .243 (45/185)
June 7 – July 30, 2010

56 games, .241 (56-232
July 26 – September 26, 2002

41 games, .226 (40/177)
July 31 – September 13, 2006

30 games, .225 (29/129)
July 31 – September 1, 2005

29 games, .165 (21/127)
August 17 – September 18, 2003

As you can see, this year’s slump was not Ichiro’s longest or his most severe. And prior to this one, he hadn’t had a severe slump since 2006. (His most recent prior slump was in 2008, .252 (30/119), March 31 – April 30, 28 games.)

The not-so-good news is that August/September is prime time for Ichiro's worst slumps.

And the worst news is that his bat currently is extremely slow, as slow as I have ever seen it in his career. This is true even with an approach that limits the use of his power swing to a minimum. Ichiro’s swing now is the slowest on the Mariners and one of the slowest in the league. It is a testament to his savvy and intelligence that he is hitting .300 at all. But his slow bat does not bode well for his run at 200 hits.

Strap it on. As tough as this season has been for the team—and it must be said that Ichiro was hitting well when the season was still in doubt—the quest for 200 hits figures to go down to the wire for Ichiro in 2010.

One view.

This post has been edited by Bandwagon Fan: Aug 12 2010, 01:53 PM

[Vidya]

Jim Street has a different opinion. He also has a little more balanced view of Ichiro's chances to reach the mark this year. The bottom line is August and September have been good and bad for Ichiro. Motivation might be a key. He's already broken the consecutive season record, but the Mariners are out of contention, so the focus could turn back to his hit count. It has already started.

[Pirata Morado]

An update after the game of August 15.

Parameters:
Games = 118
Remaining = 44
At bats = 486
Hits = 151 (he only needs 49)
p = .3107
------------------
Current Model
Expected Total Hits = 207
Prob (TotHits >= 200) = 86.4%
Career Model
Expected Total Hits = 211
Prob (TotHits >= 200) = 95%

The probability has stabilized. It reached it's lowest point in July 27th when the probability was 66.42%, from then onwards it's been oscillating around 85%, I think it's a pretty safe bet. I would bet on it.

This post has been edited by Pirata Morado: Aug 15 2010, 04:58 PM

[senior octobre]

Jim Street has a different opinion. He also has a little more balanced view of Ichiro's chances to reach the mark this year. The bottom line is August and September have been good and bad for Ichiro. Motivation might be a key. He's already broken the consecutive season record, but the Mariners are out of contention, so the focus could turn back to his hit count. It has already started.

"He keeps himself in great shape and works hard," Powell said. "If he puts his mind to it, I think he could play another 10 years."

~ Alonzo Powell

[Pirata Morado]

An update after the game of August 22.

Parameters:
Games = 124
Remaining = 38
At bats = 515
Hits = 160 (he only needs 40)
p = .3107
------------------
Current Model
Expected Total Hits = 209
Prob (TotHits >= 200) = 93.3%
Career Model
Expected Total Hits = 212
Prob (TotHits >= 200) = 97.4%

[Pirata Morado]

Not much doing with the Mariners, perhaps the only 2 issues worth noting are Félix's Cy Young race and Ichiro's 200 hit race.

Another update after the game of September 2.

Parameters:
Games = 134
Remaining = 28
At bats = 556
Hits = 173 (he only needs 27)
p = .3112
------------------
Current Model
Expected Total Hits = 209
Prob (TotHits >= 200) = 96.2%
Career Model
Expected Total Hits = 212
Prob (TotHits >= 200) = 98.4%

Another thing worth noting is when does the probability switch from < 50% to >50%:

Sep 27th, probability = 46.3%
Sep 28th, probability = 58.2% so we can expect him to reach 200 hits by Sep 28th.

This post has been edited by Pirata Morado: Sep 3 2010, 07:26 AM

[Bandwagon Fan]

Looks like a good recent run by Ichiro has tipped the scales in his favor (the at bat against Jordan Lambert of the Angels in the 7th inning on Sept. 1 was extraordinary). A 200-hit season seems quite likely, even considering that this is often a very treacherous time of the season for him and that the second half of September is packed with teams with good pitching (Oakland, Tampa Bay, Texas).

Ichiro continues to squeeze out hits despite his diminished physical skills. At reduced running speed, at greatly reduced bat quickness, it is amazing that his infield hits still cannot be defensed. Derek Jeter would love to sign up for a lesson or two.

One view.

[JOlderdude]

One view.

Same old view, over and over and over and over...

'nother view.

[Bandwagon Fan]

Same old view, over and over and over and over...

'nother view.

Your view is welcomed.

[Pirata Morado]

Another update after the game of September 7.

Parameters:
Games = 139
Remaining = 23
At bats = 578
Hits = 181 (he only needs 19)
p = .3131
------------------
Current Model
Expected Total Hits = 211
Prob (TotHits >= 200) = 98.7%
Career Model
Expected Total Hits = 213
Prob (TotHits >= 200) = 99.7%

Sep 24th, probability = 49.9%

Barring injury you can consider it a done deal the question only is "when"? My best estimate is Sep 24.

This post has been edited by Pirata Morado: Yesterday, 06:30 PM