The Dr Is In: Erikkkkk's 1973 Options

[DrDetecto]

One of Bill James’ most fundamental teachings, beginning in the 1980’s, was this:

Evaluate pitchers by what they have done over a number of years, not by what they did last year.

Our gut feeling about Erik Bedard’s 2008 disappointment runs so deep that it’s almost impossible to be objective about how good this pitcher is.

Come to your senses, Padowan, and consider Steve Carlton’s 1972 and 1973:

1972 - 27-10, 1.97 ERA, 182 ERA+ ….. 310/87 control, only 17 HR

1973 - 13-20, 3.90 ERA, 97 ERA+ … 223/113 control, 29 HR

Pitchers are up and down!

Erik Bedard is one of the best, if not the very best, pitcher in baseball when he's right. No reason for Seattle to be so blase about this guy. Do other cities quit on their aces when they miss half a year? :- )

Felix, Bedard, and Morrow give the M's a verrrrrrrrrrry dangerous Big Three.

Cheers,
Dr D

This post has been edited by DrDetecto: Jan 10 2009, 01:41 PM

[mcadmin]

Doc's articles are at:

http://seattlesportsinsider.com/2009/01/09...-by-the-numbers

http://seattlesportsinsider.com/wp-admin/p...dit&post=66

http://seattlesportsinsider.com/2009/01/09...ily-of-pitchers

[Lonnie]

Erik Bedard is one of the best, if not the very best, pitcher in baseball when he's right. No reason for Seattle to be so blase about this guy. Do other cities quit on their aces when they miss half a year? :- )

The problem Doc is that Bedard is not Seattle's ace. He has no investment in the city and his only motivation to pick his game up is that he is in a contract year. Does he care enough? I say no and I get lambasted because I don't know him well enough to make that judgement. How is it that others are able to say that he will care enough with just as much evidence as I have? It's an empty promise.

Felix, Bedard, and Morrow give the M's a verrrrrrrrrrry dangerous Big Three.

Potentially very dangerous, but for just half a season. If Bedard is still with the team past the trade deadline we will have traded away Sherrill, Jones, and all those kids for nothing. There is no way in hell Bedard stays with the Mariners once his contract expires. None.

Lonnie

[phredmojo]

The problem Doc is that Bedard is not Seattle's ace. He has no investment in the city and his only motivation to pick his game up is that he is in a contract year. Does he care enough? I say no and I get lambasted because I don't know him well enough to make that judgement. How is it that others are able to say that he will care enough with just as much evidence as I have? It's an empty promise.
Potentially very dangerous, but for just half a season. If Bedard is still with the team past the trade deadline we will have traded away Sherrill, Jones, and all those kids for nothing. There is no way in hell Bedard stays with the Mariners once his contract expires. None.

Lonnie

simple he will care enough for 1 important reason. the same reason that every player cares about

[DrDetecto]

The problem Doc is that Bedard is not Seattle's ace. He has no investment in the city and his only motivation to pick his game up is that he is in a contract year. Does he care enough?

About the city of Seattle? Probably not.

About performing well? Personally I think Bedard's a ferocious competitor, once he gets on the field, though before he gets on it he's cautious to make sure he's not risking a major injury...

I dunno. How vested are the immigrant Latin players in the city of Seattle? How vested is any Japanese player in the city as such?

This post has been edited by DrDetecto: Jan 9 2009, 11:34 PM

[Lonnie]

The problem Doc is that Bedard is not Seattle's ace. He has no investment in the city and his only motivation to pick his game up is that he is in a contract year. Does he care enough?

About the city of Seattle? Probably not.

About performing well? Personally I think Bedard's a ferocious competitor, once he gets on the field, though before he gets on it he's cautious to make sure he's not risking a major injury...

I dunno. How vested are the immigrant Latin players in the city of Seattle? How vested is any Japanese player in the city as such?

I don't know when it happened exactly, but somewhere along the way I've completely lost site of the original arguement. I'm sounding like a Bedard hater, and that just isn't true. I don't have a whole lot of faith in him, but I'm willing to take a step back and just let events "happen".

Lonnie

[Taro]

Bedard wasn't just good in '07, he was THE best SP in baseball.

He pitched hurt last season, so assuming that hes healthy I think hes very likely to rebound.

The M's actually have a lot of players on their roster that are likely to rebound this season.. '08 was a nightmare.

[SABR Matt]

Indeed...take a look around...

Bedard should bounce back
Silva should bounce back at least some
Lowe should continue improving some (this will be his second full year post-surgery...that's a good thing)
Batista, in a relief role, should bounce back a lot IMHO
Clement should take at least a modest step forward.
Wlad, as bad as I think he is...is not as bad as he was last year
Lopez' second half surge may portend a more powerful hitter in '09
Betancourt had his worst defensive season and assuming he's in better shape...should rebound some
Johjima should rebound at least a little...he hit better in the second half
Branyan/Selton should EASILY outhit Sexson
Ichiro has rebound potential
It will take next to nothing to upgrade the DH slot
Gutierrez is a big defensive upgrade over last year's CF (and upgrades RF by getting Ichiro back there full time)
Beltre was dealing with constant thumb pain last year...if that heals, he could post a better season

Just saying...this team isn't as bad as it looked last year.

[Beastie Boys]

Plus, IF Bedard is a TRUE ace and one of... if not THE best when he's on then why does he absolutely REFUSE to throw over 100 pitches? that's just plain selfish, and not a team player.

[DrDetecto]

Why did Moyer refuse to throw 150?

Bedard *has* been fragile, like Pedro, the older David Cone, and a lot of other issues. Bedard sees 100 or so as the point at which he's risking injury.

[SABR Matt]

It's a media driven flat out LIE that Bedard absolutely refuses to throw 100 pitches in a game...let's go to 2007 when he was healthy, SHALL WE??

28 starts in 2007:

7 of them under 100 pitches
10 of them 110 pitchers or more
1 120 pitch game

Oh BTW...in 2008, when he was pitching with a bad hip, bad shoulder on a bad team, he made 15 starts and threw 100 or pitches 6 times and 99 3 other times.

So yeah...the media can shut the hell up about Bedard refusing to throw 100 pitches. It's absolute bullshit.

Sorry...that just ticks me off.

[billy1]

Why did Moyer refuse to throw 150?

Bedard *has* been fragile, like Pedro, the older David Cone, and a lot of other issues. Bedard sees 100 or so as the point at which he's risking injury.

Agreed, Doc. M's would be fools not to sign him up while the market is soft. Assuming he wouldn't sign is a matter of twisting a knife that is best used for butter. Seems as though folks who were anti trade to begin with are writing off his talent and the ease of replacing him which is about par for the course. Didn't you know that there are 15 pitchers out there that would produce 70% of a Bedard year for nothing? Never mind the 30% difference that gets him 10 mil. a season.

[SABR Matt]

Here's a hint to you people.

The media lies.

All the time.

About everything.

Especially when they have an agenda.

The media dislikes Bedard. Always have...always will. They will say whatever lie they feel like saying to paint him as a jerk, a bad clubhouse guy, a wuss, whatever it takes to make you fans hate him.

Erik Bedard is a ferocious competitor...always has been...always will be. He doesn't scream and do a fist pump every time he gets out of a jam like Felix does, but he hates to lose. HATES it. What's more..he hates to not be on the field helping his team. He thinks it's stupid to be a hero and get yourself hurt...He's right...it is STUPID.

And in spite of that...he dragged his injured body out there 15 times last year trying to help the Mariners win games...he pitched amazingly well under tremendous pressure with the media constantly attacking him for a team that was going absolutely no where. From what I saw las season..he was in constant pain...you could see him falling off badly toward third base in the middle innings of starts, walking around, wincing, limping, shaking his arm to get feeling back in his fingers...he SHOULD have been on the DL the whole damned season. But he wasn't because he had a responsibility to try to get out there are help the team. And, despite being badly limited by his aching body, he DID help the team...a lot more than most pitchers would in his condition.

This lie that you're believing that he doesn't care...you've been brainwashed by the media...again! It happens all the time...it's going to keep happening until you STOP TRUSTING THEM.

Maybe Bedard could be a better team player if he was more polite to the press and more available to the community. Maybe he's too quiet and introverted to get along with the latin ballplayers (who tend to be very social and extroverted). but don't say he doesn't care. You're repeating a slanderous lie and it needs to stop. Now.

[DrDetecto]

Billy! Been a while my man! :- )

...............

I see that somebody got a little fired up there Matty. LOL.

Seems Billy pegged the motivation on the 'net; the motivation for the media is supposedly pretty clear too: they have to talk to Bedard face-to-face.

Not that I disagree with you about the media, Matt. I used to think it was biased. Now I believe, with unemotional, bemused detachment, that the mainstream media is a threat to our democracy. Pat Caddell was the first one to put it that way, I think.

It's okay. The internet will probably counterbalance them.

...............

How many people here are aware that they missed out on much of Randy Johnson's career, in large part, because (according to a key M's exec then and now) "he is one of the highest-maintenance players in the league"?

Bedard has a personality like Carlton and the Big Unit. He has K rates like theirs too.

.................

Geoff Baker rightly raises the question of whether Bedard wants to live here, but Bedard gave the Orioles a more-than-fair shot to lay out a contract that would give him some security. Show him the money and he's going to have a tough time turning it down.

This post has been edited by DrDetecto: Jan 10 2009, 02:07 AM

[SABR Matt]

The Mariners are of course far too risk averse to OK the signing of Bedard until he proves he can pitch healthy, but if its my team...I sign him to a 4 year 50 million dollar contract extension after the arbitrartion ends. In this market...with the uncerainty about how next year's market will play out and with Bedard's own likely uncertainty about his health...he doesn't pass on that...and the Mariners get their ace for 5 years...even if he only makes 26 starts a year...he'd still be worth it.

[DaddyO]

I didn't vote because there's one important option missing. There's no selection that says "Wait and see how he pitches in spring training and the first three months of 2009 before deciding. If he pitches well, offer him an appropriate contract. If not, you' aren't much worse off than you are now."

Also, I'd rather see if a new season and new leadership improves his "team dynamics" somewhat.

I fully realize that if he pitches well it will cost you more, but if he won't take a good offer you can bet another team will give you one.

[SABR Matt]

I agree with that thinking DaddyO...I'm voted to offer him a contract but I can see the logic in waiting to see IF theteam responds appropriately to Bedard in either case

[DaddyO]

Here's a hint to you people.

The media lies.

All the time.

About everything.

Especially when they have an agenda.

Some of the time this is the only way to characterize what anyone other than a zealot can see quite clearly. Akin to it, and perhaps even more dangerous, and I think applicable in this case, is not lies, but the abandonment of all objectivity combined with a disinclination to do the work necessary to get the facts. I truly believe that the Seattle media pretty quickly took a dislike to Bedard because in their view he didn't live up to the implied code of conduct between a player and the media. They took a very strong and personal offense, and it colored everything they wrote about him. I don't believe they deliberately lied, I believe they said exactly what they believed about him. They just let that belief prevent them from making an objective presentation of the story of Erik Bedard.

Sure, some of the press are pond scum. Most are not. But they ARE a club, a fraternity that has its rules. Like all such groups, they bestow their favors on people who understand and play by THEIR rules. People who don't get the frosty treatement. People who make a point of repudiating the rules get treated like the devil incarnate.

This is the same dynamics we have seen among baseball players. It's why Willie Bloomquist gets treated the way he does, and why Ichiro gets treated the way he does among the Mariners clubhouse fraternity. They will quickly forgive all sorts of other types of offenses, but upset the entrenched code by bringing a wholly different and foreign code into the clubhouse and you will be persona non grata.

[DocMilo]

If Bedard is still with the team past the trade deadline we will have traded away Sherrill, Jones, and all those kids for nothing. There is no way in hell Bedard stays with the Mariners once his contract expires. None.

Lonnie

Lonnie,
It's really pretty simple. Zduriencik should be up to date on Bedard's health. He was in Vegas at the Winter Meetings for an exam. If Erik reaches arbitration he gets traded by July. My guess is that the M's try to extend him before his arbitration hearing in Feb.

If they trade him, I just hope Zduriencik learns one from Beane. Beane always seems to get his dealing done in June or early July. He's never up against the deadline and always seems to get solid packages in return since the other team gets their player(s) for an extra month or two.

[SABR Matt]

Milwaukee acquired Sabathia well before the trade deadline last year. That would seem to indicate that Z will be an early dealer...but...had to say for sure.