Ok, now what?, Starting Pitching Options

[Lonnie]

Ok, I've taken a bit of a hiatus to recharge my batteries a bit and to get my head around a couple of issues. That last game of the year really, REALLY took something out of me. I felt absolutely drained after the game and for the next few days I kind of walked around in a bit of a daze. Looking at the traffic here at the MC and at other sites it looks like I wasn't the only one to need some time off. Time off is over.

We have a shopping list of things that need to be addressed during this off-season, the quality and quantity of the moves to be made by Jack Zduriencik will dictate just how effective our Mariners will be in 2010. Here is my idea of the order of priority of the issues that need to be taken care of:

- Starting Pitching
- Short Stop
- 3rd Base
- Left Field
- 1st Base
- Catcher
- Bullpen

Today I'll focus on the Starting Pitching and will have subsequent posts on the rest.

Starting Pitching
Within the context of this topic there are two very large issues that HAVE to be addressed. I will address the first and ignore the second for the time being.

- Acquisition of a #2 starter
- Extending Felix

There have been a lot of words written over the course of the second half of the season w/r/t the state of the Mariners starting pitching staff and what it might look like going into the 2010 season. Personally, this aspect scares me. We know going in that we will have one of the best starting pitchers in baseball anchoring the staff in Felix. Beyond him we have Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell as having a lock for a position in the rotation. That leaves two gaping holes. Right now, as of this writing, we have Brandon Morrow, Doogie Fister, Luke French, Carlos Silva, Garrett Olson, Chris Jakubauskas, and Jason Vargas as candidates for those two positions. Of that group, Morrow leads the pack followed by... ugh, Carlos Silva.

Morrow needs to show me a bit more before I feel comfortable with him holding down a slot on the rotation for a full season. He is still a work in progress. Morrow would definately gain something from spending more time with Tacoma, but "needs must" dictate that he be on the 25 man roster in some capacity.

Doogie Fister showed some good stuff during the course of the second half of the season, but he is not a player to hang your hat on for a full season's worth of quality work. His style of pitching absolutely requires that he has his pin-point control day in and day out. Without this control he is a pinata waiting to happen. To his credit, Fister does appear to have the mental and emotional maturity to handle things when the shit hits the fan for him.

I love Jason Vargas. I love how he attacks the batter. I do not love the idea of him being in the rotation for a full season. He could be effective in some spot starts, but beyond that I don't think he should be in the rotation. Long relief!

Like Vargas, Chris Jakubauskas can hold down a slot for a short while and be moderately effective. His best role with the team is in the pen though.

I have absolutely ZERO faith in Luke French and Garrett Olson. I see both as being bullpen arms with French being long relief and Olson as a LOOGY.

Um.... Carlos Silva. He may surprise a lot of folks in 2010, but I'd have to say that the odds of that happening are pretty long.

Those are the players who are currently in the stable. There are some pretty nice arms there, but nothing to make me feel good about 2010. According Cot's Baseball Contracts, here are the Free Agent starting pitchers:


- Brandon Backe HOU
- Josh Beckett '10 Team Option BOS
- Erik Bedard SEA Type-B FA
- Daniel Cabrera ARZ
- Bartolo Colon CWS
- Jose Contreras COL
- Doug Davis ARZ Type-B FA
- Justin Duchscherer OAK Type-B FA
- Adam Eaton COL
- Kelvim Escobar LAA
- Jon Garland '10 Team Option LAD Type-B FA
- Tom Glavine ATL
- Mike Hampton HOU
- Rich Harden CHC Type-B FA
- Livan Hernandez WAS
- Tim Hudson '10 Team Option ATL
- Randy Johnson SF Type-B FA
- John Lackey LAA Type-A FA
- Cliff Lee '10 Team Option PHI Type-A FA
- Braden Looper '10 Team Option MIL Type-B FA
- Jason Marquis COL Type-B FA
- Kevin Millwood '10 Team Option TEX
- Brett Myers PHI
- Vicente Padilla '10 Team Option LAD Type-B FA
- Carl Pavano MIN Type-B FA
- Brad Penny SF
- Odalis Perez WAS
- Andy Pettitte NYY Type-B FA
- Joel Pineiro STL Type-B FA
- Sidney Ponson KC
- Jason Schmidt LAD
- John Smoltz STL
- Tim Wakefield '10 Team Option BOS Type-B FA
- Jarrod Washburn DET
- Brandon Webb '10 Team Option ARZ Type-B FA
- Todd Wellemeyer STL
- Randy Wolf Type-A FA

Wait, someone is missing from that list. He's a holdover from '09 and has been linked to the Mariners by several pundits; Ben Sheets.

That's quite a list and it needs to be winnowed down. Here's the same list after I removed the old, infirm, and the guys I just don't like:

Erik Bedard
Jon Garland
Rich Harden
Brett Myers
Brad Penny
Brandon Webb
Ben Sheets

That's actually a pretty attractive list of FA pitchers. Bedard is a somewhat known quantity for the Mariners, so if he gets resigned during this off-season it shouldn't surprise anyone. Personally, he wouldn't be my first choice from the list. Topping the list for me would be 27 year old (turns 28 11/30) Rich Harden and 29 year old Brett Myers. Harden is a type "B" free agent so it would cost the Mariners something, but not much. Myers has no restrictions, but he has been a life-long Phillie so may prove hard to get.

Both come with question marks. Harden threw 189.2 innings in 2004 and hasn't come close to that mark since. 2006 and 2007 were injury years for Harden (not sure what the injury was) and has since brought his work load up over 140 the last two years. In 2009 he was shut down before the end of the year due to fatigue in his right arm.

There should be no question about the legitamacy of Harden's "stuff". His career BAA is .220, his WHIP is 1.24 and he has run a K/BB ratio of around 3:1. Interestingly, he had always been in the middle of the road with regard to flyouts and groundouts, but the last two years he has suddenly become a flyball pitcher. 2008 was extreme (0.46) and 2009 he moderated it a bit (0.83).

Myers doesn't have the injury history that Harden has, but his has just cropped up in the year. Myers suffered from a frayed laybrum in his right hip and in June underwent surgery to repair it. In September he strained a muscle in his shoulder. Otherwise, Myers has been a horse for the Phillies over the last 8 seasons.

Even though Jon Garland has been in the league for 10 seasons now, he just turned 30 a couple of weeks ago. Garland is no stranger to the American League as he spent 8 seasons pitching for the White Sox. Unlike Harden and Myers, Garland has no injury concerns. Under his current contract 2010 is an option year and he is a type B free agent.

Brad Penny is an interesting player. His ERA ballooned while he was with Boston in 2009, but then plummeted once he was traded to San Francisco. Obviously, the change did him a lot of good. Penny is a pitch to contact type of pitcher who is greatly helped by a good defense behind him. Penny has a respectable 6.3 SO/9 and walks 2.9 per nine innings pitched. His downfall, IMHO is that he gives up nearly a homerun per game. Like Garland, Penny is a horse who always answers the call when his spot rolls around to pitch. Penny turned 31 last May.

30 year old Brandon Webb should be on the Mariners radar. His 2009 season got wiped out by an injury to his right shoulder. To his relief, there was no tearing of the labrum, which would have been devestating. The Diamond Backs have an option on him for 2010, but from the sounds of it he isn't interested in the type of deal that they may approach him with (D-backs face 'difficult situation' in contract decision). "I have not heard it from the horse's mouth, but there's been a lot of speculation about them coming to me and trying to work out a deal with an option and incentives and stuff like that," Webb said. "And everybody keeps asking me if I'd be interested if they did that, and basically no, I'm not interested in doing that." Shoulder injuries bug the crap out of me and I'm hesitant to put any faith in a pitcher who has a history of this sort of injury. If he is ok, then Webb could be a monster.

Perhaps the one pitcher with the highest risk/reward is Ben Sheets. Sheets spent the entire 2009 season eating cheetos as he recovered from surgery on a torn flexor tendon in his pitching elbow. Sheets has had a wonderful career so far, but it has been marred by six trips to the DL. Healthy, Sheets is an All-Star.

In looking at these six free agents I never once took into consideration what it would take monitarily to sign them. Frankly, the economics of 2010 is a question mark for me.

So, there you go. These are the pieces that should be looked at when it comes to building a rotation for 2010 and beyond. I believe there will be funds available to attract just about anyone on the FA list, it will just be a matter of fit. Personally, this is what I would like to see for a rotation in 2010:

Felix
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Brandon Morrow

Killer, just killer...

Lonnie

[Leo Gomez]

I really like the rotation, but am a little afraid having Bedard and Harden would keep the bullpen in a constant state of....well tiredness . I'd want to trade in Washburn for Harden since he's pretty much a 5 inning pitcher these days.

But I'm a sucker for those strikeout pitchers, so if Felix, RRS, Bedard, Harden, Morrow ends up being our five I'd be stoked.

[Vidya]

I'm pretty happy with the starting pitching and see RRS as the #2 starter. The only free agents I'm interested in are Washburn and Bedard. Even for those pitchers, I'm only looking for a one to three year deal, the shorter the better. From that point, Bedard is the best bet, because he'll be most willing to go with a short term deal.

Washburn is obviously a very good fit for Safeco and the Mariners, just look at his Seattle - Detroit splits. Going three years with him, or a healthy Bedard would be a good bridge until we can develop our own starting pitching.

I'm hoping the Mariners pick up at least one of the international free agents starting pitchers. We've discussed two here, and either could be the long term answer to the #2 starter for the Mariners.

Given a full year as a starting pitcher, I'm expecting Morrow to develop nicely. He might even be able to pass RRS to become the #2 in 2011. The rest are just fill-ins, which is all you need for the bottom of the order. All we need is lots of possibilities, and we have that.

Where the Mariners most need pitching is in the bullpen, and better starting pitching at Tacoma. That's not just because I'm a Rainiers fan, it's so we can have depth to move into the rotation when needed. I would recheck your list for guys we can sign to minor league contracts.

This post has been edited by Vidya: Oct 15 2009, 11:00 AM

[reba]

Both come with question marks. Harden threw 189.2 innings in 2004 and hasn't come close to that mark since. 2006 and 2007 were injury years for Harden (not sure what the injury was) and has since brought his work load up over 140 the last two years. In 2009 he was shut down before the end of the year due to fatigue in his right arm.

There should be no question about the legitamacy of Harden's "stuff". His career BAA is .220, his WHIP is 1.24 and he has run a K/BB ratio of around 3:1. Interestingly, he had always been in the middle of the road with regard to flyouts and groundouts, but the last two years he has suddenly become a flyball pitcher. 2008 was extreme (0.46) and 2009 he moderated it a bit (0.83).
...
So, there you go. These are the pieces that should be looked at when it comes to building a rotation for 2010 and beyond. I believe there will be funds available to attract just about anyone on the FA list, it will just be a matter of fit. Personally, this is what I would like to see for a rotation in 2010:

Felix
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Brandon Morrow

Killer, just killer...

Lonnie

That would be a killer rotation.

I've loved Harden ever since he broke into the league. Kind of hard not to when the city I'm from produces a guy with that kind of stuff. I'm not sold on the injury front though. I spoke to his dad in the summer of 2008 briefly as he flew back from Oakland (working at the small airport sometimes has its perks haha). He said that Rich was working really hard with a trainer, and felt really good going into that season, like the problems were behind him. He was on the DL for a short time not too long after that. That being said, he is committing to getting stronger, healthier, etc.

Maybe the whole being closer to home thing is a draw? Who knows. Would the cost be worth it? Probably.

I know I'm in the minority but I wouldn't mind seeing Bedard back in town next year. He himself said he wants to come back, and I think when healthy (yes that's a giant when), he can really help bolster the rotation.

[Jpax]

The only 'interesting' starting pitchers we have in our system currently who should pitch at Tacoma next year are Cortes and Hill. The interesting staff next year will be at West Tennesee (a mix of Robles, Ramirez, Hensley, Pineda).

Of course, we may pick up a few more interesting high level prospects by trade this winter?

[Vidya]

The only 'interesting' starting pitchers we have in our system currently who should pitch at Tacoma next year are Cortes and Hill. The interesting staff next year will be at West Tennesee (a mix of Robles, Ramirez, Hensley, Pineda).

Of course, we may pick up a few more interesting high level prospects by trade this winter?

That was my point. Zduriencik did a good job of getting pitching last winter through trade. Most were players other teams had given up on.

[MtGrizzly]

So, let me guess - the rest of the series will focus on the premium free agent at each position without any discussion of cost. You have roughly $20-25 million to spend on 2010 salaries. Start there, not with the wish list. Every FA you bring in reduces the amount you have to spend on the rest of the roster.

I would look to the trade market for SP, myself.

[Lonnie]

So, let me guess - the rest of the series will focus on the premium free agent at each position without any discussion of cost. You have roughly $20-25 million to spend on 2010 salaries. Start there, not with the wish list. Every FA you bring in reduces the amount you have to spend on the rest of the roster.

I would look to the trade market for SP, myself.

As I stated in the post, I did not approach this with an eye towards costs, just availability. No, the rest of the series will not just focus on the premium free agents, just as this one didn't. All I am doing is showing what options are available.

If you feel compelled to write something up about the trade market please feel free to do so. I don't have the information nor the inclination to approach that topic.

Lonnie

[Leo Gomez]

I wonder what kind of deal Washburn would be looking for. It seems like he's at the point where he woudn't mind playing from year to year. Of course, this is all based on interviews from the radio.

[Lonnie]

I wonder what kind of deal Washburn would be looking for. It seems like he's at the point where he woudn't mind playing from year to year. Of course, this is all based on interviews from the radio.

Nobody is a bigger Wishbone fan than me, but I'd rather see someone else in the rotation, like Harden.

Lonnie

[Vidya]

So, let me guess - the rest of the series will focus on the premium free agent at each position without any discussion of cost. You have roughly $20-25 million to spend on 2010 salaries. Start there, not with the wish list. Every FA you bring in reduces the amount you have to spend on the rest of the roster.

I would look to the trade market for SP, myself.

I believe that if Zduriencik found someone in the FA market he really liked and thought it was a good deal, he could talk the FO into adjusting the budget. What I don't believe is that he'll find such a player other than someone like Griffey or Washburn. Also, they'll probably come in under budget anyway.

As I posted earlier, I don't believe he'll be looking any further than Washburn or Bedard for a front-line starter. I do believe he'll be looking for many more bargain pitchers like Aardsma and Olson.

EDIT: My point about more starting pitching is looking for free agents who can't get a major league contract. That includes both former MLB pitchers and minor leaguers who become minor league free agents. There's a lot of those. The trick is to get the best of the junkpile to become part of the Rainier rotation. They cost very little, and you can work with them like we did Vargas and Olson.

Zduriencik's job is to convince them to come to the Mariners camp in Peoria. Last year he did an excellent job recruiting position players, but not pitchers. He does seem to have some luck picking ones who can be successful. At the end of the season it seemed like we had an excess of starting pitching, but there was a point during the middle of the season when a healthy arm could not be found. One more injury and Batista would have been back in the rotation.

This post has been edited by Vidya: Oct 15 2009, 04:30 PM

[Sandy - Raleigh]

My take.

IMO, it would be butt dumb stupid to build the best defense in baseball and then go out and spend a bunch of money on high-K pitchers. I mean, sure if one falls into your lap for real cheap, (Bedard could), you don't turn them away -- but as noted by Vidya, the budget is likely VERY tight for 2010.

If you've got a kick-ass DEFENSE, then you don't NEED a high-K rotation. Getting one actually just reduces the value of your defense, and gives you less money to spend on offense. If you're confident your defense is going to be solid, then what you need is any pitcher who can throw strikes and not give up HRs. Garland wouldn't be a bad choice -- and we saw what Wash accomplished.

I must confess it drives me batty with the love affair for the high-K, no control pitchers. Strikeouts are EXPENSIVE. Ground balls are cheap. Non-HR flyballs are even cheaper.

How can I get this across?

2009- Seattle Mariners 11th (of 14) in pitching Ks.
2009- Seattle Mariners 1st (of 14) in fewest hits allowed.

Why are Ks valuable? Because they prevent HITs. Well, Seattle had a wretched staff in Ks, and led the AL in fewest hits allowed. They do not NEED additional Ks. In point of fact, additional Ks "typically" come with a cost. That cost is more HRs allowed.

2009- Seattle Mariners 6th (of 14) in HRs allowed.
2009- Seattle Mariners 8th (of 14) in walks allowed.

In truth, the stellar defense will SUPPRESS all three pitching countables. So, the Ks are actually nominally better in reality than the final rank. But the HRs and BBs surrendered are both UNDER stated.

Olson and Vargas and French and Morrow and Fister *ALL* failed to do better for the same reason. They couldn't keep the ball in the park.

Vargas 1.6 HR/9
Olson 2.1 HR/9
Morrow 1.3 HR/9
Fister 1.6 HR/9
French 2.1 HR/9
Silva 1.5 HR/9

The good pitchers? Felix 0.6; Wash 0.7; RRS 0.8; Bedard 0.9;

Snell, who was erratic, and whose control was more often than not dreadful, posted a 1.0 HR/9, and ends up with a 5-2 record!

You know who could THRIVE with this defense? A healthy Silva. (my feelings about Joh not withstanding).

Felix
RRS
Snell
Silva

That's not a bad starting 4, (if Snell can get his control under control). The choice for #5 starter, (Morrow, Vargas, French, Fister), is much more difficult.

While I'm likely in a minority of one, I suspect that French was not completely healthy for his entire stay in Seattle. I have a hunch that if their is a SUPRISE come spring training, it is that French suddenly looks like the guy who owned Seattle early in the season.

The more I see of Morrow, the more I'm convinced his optimal position is late game reliever. I think he could eventually be developed into a competent closer, (but think it was probably detrimental to his development to have thrown him into that role so early).

You want to buff up the offense, then TRUST your defense and save money by NOT spending (much) for arms. Use that money to lure some more offensive oomph for DH, LF and/or 3B.

[M's Watcher]

Sandy,

You are on the right track. The pitching staff won't score runs, except maybe in interleague games. If we can pull off above-league-average pitching, maybe not too tough with Felix, then we just need to beef up the offense. ~200 more runs should do it.

[DocMilo]

Sandy,

You are on the right track. The pitching staff won't score runs, except maybe in interleague games. If we can pull off above-league-average pitching, maybe not too tough with Felix, then we just need to beef up the offense. ~200 more runs should do it.

This can't be quite accurate, but fangraphs has the following runs scored by position (even though it is 8 more runs than the M's scored in 2009 as a team):
C: 50
1B: 84
2B: 80
SS: 45
3B: 72
RF: 97
CF: 88
LF: 63
DH: 67
P: 2
200 more runs is 20 more runs per position. The pitchers are going to have to really step it up.

[SABR Matt]

We don't need to add TWO HUNDRED runs to be a contender...with our pitching staff and team defense, we need to be +100 runs to have a good shot at the post-season. (check those Pythag percentages, IceX...850 RS / 650 RA is like a .630 team...you don't have to play .630 ball to make the post-season. NO ONE played .630 ball this year...though the Yankees were close.

We need to add 100 runs or so assuming the bad luck we had on offense this year (we OPS'ed as a .500 team...our runs scored were unluckily low) regresses to normal. We can rather easily add 40 runs at DH with the right move...after which it's probably just a matter of getting incremental upgrades elsewhere.

[M's Watcher]

We don't need to add TWO HUNDRED runs to be a contender...with our pitching staff and team defense, we need to be +100 runs to have a good shot at the post-season. (check those Pythag percentages, IceX...850 RS / 650 RA is like a .630 team...you don't have to play .630 ball to make the post-season. NO ONE played .630 ball this year...though the Yankees were close.

We need to add 100 runs or so assuming the bad luck we had on offense this year (we OPS'ed as a .500 team...our runs scored were unluckily low) regresses to normal. We can rather easily add 40 runs at DH with the right move...after which it's probably just a matter of getting incremental upgrades elsewhere.

Matt,
I disagree, even if we moved to the weak sisters central div. All four AL playoff teams score 800+ runs. Most importantly, we trailed the Angels (883) by 243 RS. Actually the M's had 692 RA, though I don't expect nearly the same performance again for 2010. For argument sake, let's say they repeat 692 RA. An increase of 200 runs to 840 RS gives a pythag of .596. An increase of only 100 RS pythags at .533 or 86 wins. No thank you.

Our offense wasn't unlucky, it just sucked. When we have the worst hitting C, SS, and LF in the league, and among the worst at 3B and DH, it is not unlucky, just offensive.

[SABR Matt]

That's cool...ignore the actual data I provided regarding why I think the offense was unlucky in the run column. Wouldn't want little things like facts to get in the way of an opinion.

[Huindekmi]

That's cool...ignore the actual data I provided regarding why I think the offense was unlucky in the run column. Wouldn't want little things like facts to get in the way of an opinion.

You mean THIS?

(we OPS'ed as a .500 team...our runs scored were unluckily low)

An off-handed, parenthetical comment with no supporting data or cogent argument backing it up? That statement is pure opinion.

[M's Watcher]

That's cool...ignore the actual data I provided regarding why I think the offense was unlucky in the run column. Wouldn't want little things like facts to get in the way of an opinion.

Matt,
I did provide data regarding the need to score ~200 more runs in 2010. I think my argument is reasonable. It is still opinion, but it is supported with data.

As for luck, was Ichiro unlucky to hit ahead of #2 and #4 hitters that couldn't hit themselves out of a bag? Maybe, but it was more due to the filling out of the lineup card than luck. Why give poor hitters more plate appearances by having them bat near the top of the lineup? I'll never figure that out. The problem with that is that half the lineup didn't hit, so where do you hide them? In reality, you can't.

Other arguments against unluckiness are the facts that the M's were last in RS, BB, BA, OPS, and next to last in SLG. This it totally consistent with many of the individual parts being broken as well. It is no surprise nor unlucky that we scored the fewest runs when we had the fewest baserunners.

Your thoughts regarding being unlucky at runs is opinion also. We can disagree about interpretation of the data while still being civil.

[Vidya]

Sandy,

You are on the right track. The pitching staff won't score runs, except maybe in interleague games. If we can pull off above-league-average pitching, maybe not too tough with Felix, then we just need to beef up the offense. ~200 more runs should do it.

Maybe we need to play more interleague games or get Felix some starts at DH.