Player $ Value, Fangraphs addition Options

[MfaninAlaska]

Fangraphs has added $ value to their player sheets to show what a player would be valued at performance wise.

Now I don't know how all this works, nor do I want to get into a lengthy debate about the merits of it or the formula used (because I don't know it)...

But I thought it was an interesting look to see what some players $ Value was according to their stats:

Mariners:
C: Johjima - 2006-$12.2 mil - 2007-$10.2mil - 2008-$1.2mil

1b: Sexson - 2006-$10.4 mil - 2007-(-$7.1 mil) - 2008-(-$3.5 mil)

2b: Lopez - 2006- $7.2 mil - 2007- (-0.7 mil) - 2008 - $10.6 mil

SS: Betancourt - 2006-$5.7 mil - 2007-$4.7 mil - 2008- $0.0

3b: Beltre - 2006 - $17.8 mil 2007 - $10.9 mil 2008 - $18.3 mil

LF: Ibanez - 2006 - $10.6 mil 2007 - $2.3 mil 2008 - $9.7 mil

RF: Ichiro - 2006 - $16.1 mil 2007 - $18.7 mil 2008 - $14.4 Mil

CF: Reed - 2006 - (-$2.4 mil) 2007 - (-$1.7 mil) 2008 - (-$0.9 mil)

[DrDetecto]

Thanks for pointing this out, dude.

Baseball analysis is getting better all the time. Fangraphs' pitch data, and now value, put the internet at the cutting edge of where ML data was, just a few years ago...

[Taro]

Also, now that the information is easy to look up for anyone I hope this puts end to the "Ichiro is way overpaid" camp.

Keep in mind that UZR is more down on Ichiro's defense than any defensive stat I know of on the planet. Hes EASILY worth his contract as long as his performance doesn't decline from '08 standards.

EDIT: Adjust Ichiro's defensive value to a more realistic level and hes a $17+mil player even in '08.

This post has been edited by Taro: Dec 26 2008, 04:55 PM

[DrDetecto]

Can you believe those defensive numbers they've got on Ichiro, Taro?!

[DrNaka]

Can you believe those defensive numbers they've got on Ichiro, Taro?!

Given that UZR date are right on Ichiro.

Ichiro's arm prevent at least 10runs a seoson above avarage OF arm I think.
(or after the lasor beam at A's 2001, by not using his arm because the runner do not try a an extra base)

Add 1 win per season and you get a player constantly above 20M$ a year.

[DrNaka]

I don't discuss whether these data are the best or not.
Just let me comment what i found out on these data.


Mariners:
C: Johjima - 2006-$12.2 mil - 2007-$10.2mil - 2008-$1.2mil
So Johjima was worth 22.4 mil for 2 years of his 3 years/$16.5M (2006-08) contract when they talked about contract extension. So i just wonder why all are against the new 3 years/$24M (2009-11) contract.
But sure the " jealousy" in club house (was there?) or all the "bad luck" in BABIP etc did not help him in 2008. At least he was something worth over replacement level player.

1b: Sexson - 2005-14.2 mil 2006-$10.4 mil - 2007-(-$7.1 mil) - 2008-(-$3.5 mil)
4 years/$50M (2005-08). In all hindsight ; best would be when they dumped him after 2006.
Interesting is that his hitting slump in 2008 was because he got more pation at bat per pitchfx data.
Sexon's Swing rate decreased from 47.7% to 43.4% in 2008.

2b: Lopez - 2006- $7.2 mil - 2007- (-0.7 mil) - 2008 - $10.6 mil
In a team where young MLB position player develop with age it should be 2006 7.2 2007 10.2 2008 14.5.
2007 maybe lower because he lost his brother.
I just wonder why the M's under Hargrove and McLaren did not care.

SS: Betancourt - 2006-$5.7 mil - 2007-$4.7 mil - 2008- $0.0
See Lopez.

3b: Beltre - 2006 - $17.8 mil 2007 - $10.9 mil 2008 - $18.3 mil
2007 and 2008 with injured thumb. What if the M's did MRI at his thumb earlier in 2007.

LF: Ibanez - 2006 - $10.6 mil 2007 - $2.3 mil 2008 - $9.7 mil
For thouse who think plate discipline is important.
The 2008 good batting year was not that Ibanez took pitches.
His swingrate% increased, O swing% increased and O contact% increased.
So he saw the pitch better, his personal strikezone got bigger.

RF: Ichiro - 2006 - $16.1 mil 2007 - $18.7 mil 2008 - $14.4 Mil
Ichiro is undervalued here.
2002-2008 100 mil. So how was his MVP year 2001?

CF: Reed - 2005-7.3mil 2006 - (-$2.4 mil) 2007 - (-$1.7 mil) 2008 - (-$0.9 mil)
Forget Reed was 7.3mil 2005? Again why cannot young player develop at MLB level as M's?
Hope him some upside as Mets.

Bench
Morse 2005-1.2mil 2006-1.0mil 2007-1.1mil 2008-0.0mil
I like him. Always plus value.

Clement
2007-1.1mil 2008-0.8mil
I don't know whi everybody is high on him and low on Johjima.

Balentien
2007-0.4mil 2008-(-5.9mil)
Why is everybody high on him?
His O swing% is high, Contact rate % is low and has no power to compancate it.

Burke
2004-3.0mil 2005 - 2006 - 2007-3.5mil 2008-1.4mil
A good bench backup catcher who is worth better than minor league contract.
But his age and late carrier shows that no GM offer him MLB contract.

Exuse me typos, i did not spellcheck.

This post has been edited by DrNaka: Dec 29 2008, 05:45 AM

[Taro]

I don't discuss whether these data are the best or not.
Just let me comment what i found out on these data.


Mariners:
C: Johjima - 2006-$12.2 mil - 2007-$10.2mil - 2008-$1.2mil
So Johjima was worth 22.4 mil for 2 years of his 3 years/$16.5M (2006-08) contract when they talked about contract extension. So i just wonder why all are against the new 3 years/$24M (2009-11) contract.
But sure the " jealousy" in club house (was there?) or all the "bad luck" in BABIP etc did not help him in 2008. At least he was something worth over replacement level player.

1b: Sexson - 2005-14.2 mil 2006-$10.4 mil - 2007-(-$7.1 mil) - 2008-(-$3.5 mil)
4 years/$50M (2005-08). In all hindsight ; best would be when they dumped him after 2006.
Interesting is that his hitting slump in 2008 was because he got more pation at bat per pitchfx data.
Sexon's Swing rate decreased from 47.7% to 43.4% in 2008.

2b: Lopez - 2006- $7.2 mil - 2007- (-0.7 mil) - 2008 - $10.6 mil
In a team where young MLB position player develop with age it should be 2006 7.2 2007 10.2 2008 14.5.
2007 maybe lower because he lost his brother.
I just wonder why the M's under Hargrove and McLaren did not care.

SS: Betancourt - 2006-$5.7 mil - 2007-$4.7 mil - 2008- $0.0
See Lopez.

3b: Beltre - 2006 - $17.8 mil 2007 - $10.9 mil 2008 - $18.3 mil
2007 and 2008 with injured thumb. What if the M's did MRI at his thumb earlier in 2007.

LF: Ibanez - 2006 - $10.6 mil 2007 - $2.3 mil 2008 - $9.7 mil
For thouse who think plate discipline is important.
The 2008 good batting year was not that Ibanez took pitches.
His swingrate% increased, O swing% increased and O contact% increased.
So he saw the pitch better, his personal strikezone got bigger.

RF: Ichiro - 2006 - $16.1 mil 2007 - $18.7 mil 2008 - $14.4 Mil
Ichiro is undervalued here.
2002-2008 100 mil. So how was his MVP year 2001?

CF: Reed - 2005-7.3mil 2006 - (-$2.4 mil) 2007 - (-$1.7 mil) 2008 - (-$0.9 mil)
Forget Reed was 7.3mil 2005? Again why cannot young player develop at MLAB level as M's?
Hope him some upside as Mets.

Bench
Morse 2005-1.2mil 2006-1.0mil 2007-1.1mil 2008-0.0mil
I like him. Always plus value.

Clement
2007-1.1mil 2008-0.8mil
I don't know whi everybody is high on him and low on Johjima.

Balentien
2007-0.4mil 2008-(-5.9mil)
Why is everybody high on him?
His O swing% is high, Contact rate % is low and has no power to compancate it.

Burke
2004-3.0mil 2005 - 2006 - 2007-3.5mil 2008-1.4mil
A good bench backup catcher who is worth better than minor league contract.
But his age and late carrier shows that no GM offer him MLB contract.

Exuse me typos, i did not spellcheck.

I actually think its pretty likely that both Johjima and Betancourt rebound somewhat next season. Betancourt to around 1 WAR and Joh to around 2 WAR.

At 2 WAR Joh is an $8.8mil player by FA dollars, so maybe we can trade him after next season if Clement shows that he can stay healthy enough to stick at C.

[Sandy - Raleigh]

Y'know what amazes me?

That an organization can come out with something like this - that obviously took a lot of time organizing - creating - vetting - number crunching. They make it available and the masses eat it up, ooohing and aaahing - right up until there is a bit of information that doesn't match pre-conceived notions.

The concept of accepting the data for everyone EXCEPT Ichiro just boggles my mind. My opinion is that if the data do not match up with expectation to the player that you feel you know the absolute MOST about compared to anyone else -- then one should be dismissing the entire system.

Instead - we get acceptance of the system - EXCEPT that Ichiro is undervalued. To ME, Beltre is the guy that calls the entire system into question. His RC/27 for the three years in question, along with his dollar worth:

Year - RC -- $$$ - OPS+
2006 - 5.1 - 17.8 - 105
2007 - 5.2 - 10.9 - 112
2008 - 5.2 - 18.3 - 109

In the year he was most significantly above league norms, am I supposed to believe his defense was SO lousy that year that it reduced his value by almost half compared to both the year before and the year after?

As near as I can tell, making 4 errors and 9 points of OBP were worth a 7-8 million downgrade for Beltre in 2007. That is a MASSIVE shift in dollars for a statistical picture that is incredibly flat from an offensive side.

Unfortunately, ESPN's ZR field is currently blank - but Beltre finished (in all of baseball), 4th, 5th, and 4th in assists during this three year span. (Gee, one extra guy got more assists at 3B, and Beltre loses 8 million in value?

Forget about whether Ichiro is off by a million or two -- I have a problem with a system that is THIS volatile when a players stats are unquestionably flat during the same time.

I don't have to look at the defensive metrics they are using to know with certainty that they are putting MASSIVE value on them, which seems ill-conceived, since we KNOW that defensive metrics are questionable at best - if not worse than useless). We ALSO know that major league GMs are NOT spending millions upon millions for good gloves -- the great glove, no bat player still makes a relative pittance compared to the all-bat, no glove counterpart.

If you're going to attempt to make your system representative of dollar value, then you've got to have at least some correlation to the real world. YuBet has a similarly flat offensive chart - but sees his value drop, (during his nominally best offensive season), and then go to zero in 2008. Is 10 points of BA, (8 points of OBP), REALLY worth 4.7 million on the open market?

Heck, YUBETs OPS+ in 2006 and 2008 were 86 and 85. So, a single point of OPS+ is worth 5.7 million?

Okay, maybe his defense did get worse. But attempting to get a feel for a scale that sloshes ROUTINELY 5-10 million (and back) each season for players performing at basically the same level has absolutely zero value for me.

With Johjima and Sexson, the fan can SEE the reason for the massive shift in value. But Sexson dropped 27 points of OPS+ from '05 to '06, and lost less than 4 million in value?!? Meanwhile, YuBet drops 1 OPS+ from '06 to '08 and loses 5.7 million - his ENTIRE value?!?

I can see the value of creating a production to dollar ratio and attempting to show production value on a constant scale. But, the results here are so wacky and volatile as to be worse than useless. To me, the whole list is utterly worthless from an analytical standpoint, and only barely nominal from an entertainment standpoint.

[Taro]

Y'know what amazes me?

That an organization can come out with something like this - that obviously took a lot of time organizing - creating - vetting - number crunching. They make it available and the masses eat it up, ooohing and aaahing - right up until there is a bit of information that doesn't match pre-conceived notions.

The concept of accepting the data for everyone EXCEPT Ichiro just boggles my mind. My opinion is that if the data do not match up with expectation to the player that you feel you know the absolute MOST about compared to anyone else -- then one should be dismissing the entire system.

Instead - we get acceptance of the system - EXCEPT that Ichiro is undervalued. To ME, Beltre is the guy that calls the entire system into question. His RC/27 for the three years in question, along with his dollar worth:

Year - RC -- $$$ - OPS+
2006 - 5.1 - 17.8 - 105
2007 - 5.2 - 10.9 - 112
2008 - 5.2 - 18.3 - 109

In the year he was most significantly above league norms, am I supposed to believe his defense was SO lousy that year that it reduced his value by almost half compared to both the year before and the year after?

As near as I can tell, making 4 errors and 9 points of OBP were worth a 7-8 million downgrade for Beltre in 2007. That is a MASSIVE shift in dollars for a statistical picture that is incredibly flat from an offensive side.

Unfortunately, ESPN's ZR field is currently blank - but Beltre finished (in all of baseball), 4th, 5th, and 4th in assists during this three year span. (Gee, one extra guy got more assists at 3B, and Beltre loses 8 million in value?

Forget about whether Ichiro is off by a million or two -- I have a problem with a system that is THIS volatile when a players stats are unquestionably flat during the same time.

I don't have to look at the defensive metrics they are using to know with certainty that they are putting MASSIVE value on them, which seems ill-conceived, since we KNOW that defensive metrics are questionable at best - if not worse than useless). We ALSO know that major league GMs are NOT spending millions upon millions for good gloves -- the great glove, no bat player still makes a relative pittance compared to the all-bat, no glove counterpart.

If you're going to attempt to make your system representative of dollar value, then you've got to have at least some correlation to the real world. YuBet has a similarly flat offensive chart - but sees his value drop, (during his nominally best offensive season), and then go to zero in 2008. Is 10 points of BA, (8 points of OBP), REALLY worth 4.7 million on the open market?

Heck, YUBETs OPS+ in 2006 and 2008 were 86 and 85. So, a single point of OPS+ is worth 5.7 million?

Okay, maybe his defense did get worse. But attempting to get a feel for a scale that sloshes ROUTINELY 5-10 million (and back) each season for players performing at basically the same level has absolutely zero value for me.

With Johjima and Sexson, the fan can SEE the reason for the massive shift in value. But Sexson dropped 27 points of OPS+ from '05 to '06, and lost less than 4 million in value?!? Meanwhile, YuBet drops 1 OPS+ from '06 to '08 and loses 5.7 million - his ENTIRE value?!?

I can see the value of creating a production to dollar ratio and attempting to show production value on a constant scale. But, the results here are so wacky and volatile as to be worse than useless. To me, the whole list is utterly worthless from an analytical standpoint, and only barely nominal from an entertainment standpoint.

Cmon, you've gotta like this data being easily calculated for the public. I can calculate WAR on my own, but its time consuming (though I prefer doing it on my own for closer analysis since I don't like relying solely on UZR to measure defense). Its a nice little tool that you can just throw out there to get a basic idea of a guys value.

I agree that you've got to be careful with defensive stats. For me, even among defensive stats, UZR is one I trust very little. Its entirely too reliant on the ability of the person recording the data to evaluate defense. For me I'd prefer to use my own judgement on defense in combination with PMR, +/- and PCA (if Matt ever makes it public). Theres another site for that where you can judge a guy's defensive value on your own and come up with a number but its based on 2009 statistically projected batting lines:

http://www.baseballprojection.com/

I don't really blame fangraphs.com for using UZR though..the tools to evaluate defense right now are limited. It would have been nice if they added that option..maybe later on.

All that said, I don't think the fluctuations in value are really that strange. Even just offensively guys can have crazy year to year swings. When you combine that WITH defense the potential for a larger swing in value just becomes that much higher.

[Sandy - Raleigh]

Taro,

I have no problem with $ values fluctuating WITH the stats -- that is how it SHOULD work. My problem is that the vast majority of fluctuation I'm seeing from the Seattle list does NOT correlate to offensive fluctuation -- (meaning, it MUST be coming from defensive fluctuation).

My problem with this is that this is NOT how major leaguers are paid - which means it isn't remotely close to representing anything close to reality. If Defensive prowess at defensive-critical positions mattered, then Cameron would've gotten a $20 million a year contract after his great defensive seasons in Seattle. Did that happen? Has that EVER happened -- that someone had a defensive career year and turned that into multi-millions?!? EVER?!?!

While playing a given position can have impact on dollars, it is pretty obvious to anyone who has ever skimmed the top paid player lists that 90-95% of salary is based on offense. Giambi surely didn't cash in on his defensive prowess when he went to NY.

Beltre puts up the same offensive stats three years running, but has an 8 million swing up and down. The contention that anyones DEFENSE could result in an 8 million swing in worth is utterly ridiculous. It not only hypes a stat that has NEVER been shown to be predictive about anything - which is known to be highly volatile - and attempts to equate it almost directly with the offensive stats that we KNOW drive actual dollars paid out.

==========

Of course, if I were to accept the system as a valid system -- then I see no argument whatsoever for saying it works fine "except for Ichiro". It's a system -- the exact math that went into judging Ichiro the way he is judged went into judging everyone else. If someone is complaining that Ichiro's numbers are screwed up - unless they can offer an explanation of why this one player's NUMBERS would be abberant, then you actually ARE questioning the system.

[DrNaka]

==========

Of course, if I were to accept the system as a valid system -- then I see no argument whatsoever for saying it works fine "except for Ichiro". It's a system -- the exact math that went into judging Ichiro the way he is judged went into judging everyone else. If someone is complaining that Ichiro's numbers are screwed up - unless they can offer an explanation of why this one player's NUMBERS would be abberant, then you actually ARE questioning the system.

Sandy-san

UZR does not count arm as defensive stat.
So if a OF or IF has significant defencive arm like Ichiro or weak arm like Winn, it does not calculate.

[phredmojo]

Also, now that the information is easy to look up for anyone I hope this puts end to the "Ichiro is way overpaid" camp.

Keep in mind that UZR is more down on Ichiro's defense than any defensive stat I know of on the planet. Hes EASILY worth his contract as long as his performance doesn't decline from '08 standards.

EDIT: Adjust Ichiro's defensive value to a more realistic level and hes a $17+mil player even in '08.

no it won't, and no he isn't a 17 million dollar player no matter what BS stats are twisted to say

[Taro]

Taro,

I have no problem with $ values fluctuating WITH the stats -- that is how it SHOULD work. My problem is that the vast majority of fluctuation I'm seeing from the Seattle list does NOT correlate to offensive fluctuation -- (meaning, it MUST be coming from defensive fluctuation).

My problem with this is that this is NOT how major leaguers are paid - which means it isn't remotely close to representing anything close to reality. If Defensive prowess at defensive-critical positions mattered, then Cameron would've gotten a $20 million a year contract after his great defensive seasons in Seattle. Did that happen? Has that EVER happened -- that someone had a defensive career year and turned that into multi-millions?!? EVER?!?!

While playing a given position can have impact on dollars, it is pretty obvious to anyone who has ever skimmed the top paid player lists that 90-95% of salary is based on offense. Giambi surely didn't cash in on his defensive prowess when he went to NY.

Beltre puts up the same offensive stats three years running, but has an 8 million swing up and down. The contention that anyones DEFENSE could result in an 8 million swing in worth is utterly ridiculous. It not only hypes a stat that has NEVER been shown to be predictive about anything - which is known to be highly volatile - and attempts to equate it almost directly with the offensive stats that we KNOW drive actual dollars paid out.

==========

Of course, if I were to accept the system as a valid system -- then I see no argument whatsoever for saying it works fine "except for Ichiro". It's a system -- the exact math that went into judging Ichiro the way he is judged went into judging everyone else. If someone is complaining that Ichiro's numbers are screwed up - unless they can offer an explanation of why this one player's NUMBERS would be abberant, then you actually ARE questioning the system.

First of all, who is saying that the numbers are valid asides from Ichiro? I mentioned Ichiro in particular because UZR was more down on his defense than any system out there, and yet he still scored 3.2 WAR in '08 by their system ($14.4mil).
You and others have argued in the past that Ichiro is such a huge detriment to the payroll, that he hampers our ability to win. Clearly thats not the case.

I'm not saying the defensive stats are reliable. I've never argued that; I'm less convinced defensive stats than nearly any analyst on here. I actually agree with you that the information on Beltre's '07 is fuzzy. But I don't think thats what you should get out of it; you should instead realize that Beltre is a pretty good player overall (assuming elite defense). Nobody is arguing that UZR NAILS a players defensive value, thats clearly rediculous.

As for Mike Cameron, its the markets fault for not valuing him properly. I think this is one of the things that fangraphs helps people realize. Even at the time it was clear that he was a tremendous overall player. One of the all-time greats defensively (assuming, and theres no reason you shouldn't) at CF in Safeco and a plus bat to boot.

[Taro]

no it won't, and no he isn't a 17 million dollar player no matter what BS stats are twisted to say

The stats are more pessimistic on Ichiro's defense than any I've found and yet he still rated around $17mil a year for the past three years by their system ($14.4mil last year).

Its not hard to figure out on your own either. Every win above replacement level is worth around $4.4mil on the open market. So these are FA$... This is what players would roughly cost as FAs.

Even with the most negative defensive ratings on the net, Ichiro still rated at 3.2 WAR last year. It seems likely that the stats are wrong and Ichiro was worth more, but either way clearly he isn't "hugely overpayed" as many people have argued here.

[phredmojo]

The stats are more pessimistic on Ichiro's defense than any I've found and yet he still rated around $17mil a year for the past three years by their system ($14.4mil last year).

Its not hard to figure out on your own either. Every win above replacement level is worth around $4.4mil on the open market. So these are FA$... This is what players would roughly cost as FAs.

Even with the most negative defensive ratings on the net, Ichiro still rated at 3.2 WAR last year. It seems likely that the stats are wrong and Ichiro was worth more, but either way clearly he isn't "hugely overpayed" as many people have argued here.

thats assuming i give wins over replacement player any credibility. i don't

[Taro]

thats assuming i give wins over replacement player any credibility. i don't

Well than what do you give credit to?