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Diaz And Fastball Control


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#1
gowazzu02

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Man,  last night was ugly.  What made it worse is I was talking to someone earlier in the day about Diaz and they asked me a question. 

 

My response was "because he has NO idea where his fastball is going to go"

 

They said something about effective wildness etc. 

 

His stuff becomes immensely more human when he's making the catcher literally dive into the other box to catch the ball....

 

hopefully Stot can slow him down and fix the mechanics or else we have another problem, one not related to health this time.


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#2
Pirata Morado

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I'm glad that someone else started a thread about Díaz.

 

Yes, he's been ugly, noy only yesterday, but he served a hanging slider to Pillar on Sunday to lose it as well.

 

If you look at his game logs, these are his WPA:


0.266,0.087,-0.919,0.154,-0.312,0.028,0.001,0.204,0.148,-0.529,0.068,0.13,0.154,0.197,-0.359,-0.241

I count as many as 5 games in which he has won the anti-swelmet for us, by practically losing the game himself.  So that's 31% of his outings in which his contribution was very negative, that's too much.  That's the Angels 9th inning fiasco early in the season (sunday), the following Sunday agasint the Rangers, in which thankfully Cruz bailed him out.  Then on May 2, he blew the save against the Angels again (Calhoun hit a HR off him).  Then last sunday against the Blue Jays serving the HR to Pillar and finally yesterday in which he couldn't find the strikezone.

 

I think that his problem is mental.  He's just a kid, and even though he seems to handle himself very well, he still is very young and he was given the keys of the Ferrari at a very young age.

 

As a matter of fact, this drives me to thinking again that the Save stat is something that hasn't helped managers.  Because they manage to produce "Saves" instead of producing "Wins".  They declare a closer, so the closer "always" pitches the 9th, no matter what.  That's a silly idea.  Smart managing is bringing your best pitcher when the Leverage Index is highest, i.e. when it matters the most.  Thankfully Servais didn't bring Díaz yesterday when it mattered the most (which was the 7th inning after Seager couldn't grab that grounder that could had ended the inning with a DP.)


Edited by Pirata Morado, 16 May 2017 - 08:46 AM.

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#3
DocMilo

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I brought this up at the beginning of the year. WBC he's throwing 100 to early and too much and now he has decreased velocity and no command of the fastball. The guy needs to go on the DL for a month, let the shoulder capsule tighten back up and then get a fresh start. He's going to be a mess if they keep sending him out there.

 

I'm not a fan of the WBC. 


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#4
Pirata Morado

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I brought this up at the beginning of the year. WBC he's throwing 100 to early and too much and now he has decreased velocity and no command of the fastball. The guy needs to go on the DL for a month, let the shoulder capsule tighten back up and then get a fresh start. He's going to be a mess if they keep sending him out there.

 

I'm not a fan of the WBC. 

That's 2 of us.  This WBC destroyed our season, even more so when we had players in almost every team (Gallardo, Smyly, Félix, Díaz, Canó, Cruz, etc.).


Edited by Pirata Morado, 16 May 2017 - 09:48 AM.

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#5
Pirata Morado

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So, let me get this straight.

 

It's clear that Díaz hasn't been as sharp as he was last year.

 

But he replaced someone called Cishek last year as the closer, because Cishek was doing a lousy job there!

 

Now, he started this season in the DL, but immediately after he comes back, he is given the chance to close a tight game?

 

Is Servais mad or what?


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#6
gowazzu02

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So, let me get this straight.

 

It's clear that Díaz hasn't been as sharp as he was last year.

 

But he replaced someone called Cishek last year as the closer, because Cishek was doing a lousy job there!

 

Now, he started this season in the DL, but immediately after he comes back, he is given the chance to close a tight game?

 

Is Servais mad or what?

 

 

Sounds like he didn't have alot of options last night.  Diaz, and Zych were unavailable.


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#7
Pirata Morado

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Mr. Scrabble was available, he actually came in later and K a lefty.  He then allowed the dagger to Canha, but he could had saved the game instead of the guy who just came back from the DL....


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#8
mesully

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Just in case Servais doesn't remember Scrabble is a situational left that gets hit by right handers and Seesawstik is the opposite. What would happen if they were brought in to face one or two batters they have the advantage over in the ninth and we stop caring about who gets the so called stat "save"?
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#9
Señor Octobre

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Agree. There are several guys on the club who could eventually save, but as you say, win the game. No need to put a label on it. The toughest three outs are in the ninth. Each player, as they return, will ease the pressure, but what's the rush? Considering all they've been through, im suprised its not worse. Good to see our 4 & 5 starters (now #1 n #2) hanging in there pretty good.

The '95 Mariners had just as many injuries to players as this club.

Baptism by fire.

Edited by Señor Octobre, 17 May 2017 - 01:56 PM.

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#10
Pirata Morado

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The Save stat is one of the abominations in baseball, it has ruined how managers try to win games, well, at least the not brilliant ones.

 

I understand acknowledging the best relievers, but why not use WPA instead.  You might save 30 or 40 games and it may say nothing about how good a closer was, you might never save a game, but you can be a very good reliever, use WPA!


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#11
Señor Octobre

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Closers make more money. We've watch no name guys excell for a time. We've watch otherwise great veterans fizzle out or get hurt. Not too many Riveras or Sutters around. Does the job itself burn guys out?
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#12
anunderwaterguy

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It's not like Diaz had great control of his fastball last year either. There was a period (I think it was around mid to late August) where he had a few outings in a row where he could barely throw a strike with it and had to rely on his slider. I don't think we can't pin that problem solely on the WBC.


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#13
DocMilo

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It's not like Diaz had great control of his fastball last year either. There was a period (I think it was around mid to late August) where he had a few outings in a row where he could barely throw a strike with it and had to rely on his slider. I don't think we can't pin that problem solely on the WBC.

 

The drop in velocity and the command issues following inning multiple high intensity, adrenaline pumping outings in May can't be dismissed.


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#14
Señor Octobre

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Getting under the ball. Get back on top. No problem.
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#15
Dag Gummit

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So, let me get this straight.

 

It's clear that Díaz hasn't been as sharp as he was last year.

 

But he replaced someone called Cishek last year as the closer, because Cishek was doing a lousy job there!

 

Now, he started this season in the DL, but immediately after he comes back, he is given the chance to close a tight game?

 

Is Servais mad or what?

I believe the correct term isn't "mad".  It's "desperate".

 

Beyond that, this is just a case of "It didn't work, so the manager is horrible".  If it had been fine or exemplary, we wouldn't be talking about it.


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AAPs:

Herschel Mack Just call me 'Boog' Powell IV has just been promoted to The Show for the first time and is hoping to stick around for a couple dozen years or so.

Joe Snake Eyes Wieland has been a mid-K, super-low-BB, Groundball machine in the minors and has a ~90 mph FB.  With his potential for masterful zone control, he's looking like the textbook Dipoto-type SP.

 

 

Gone, but not forgotten AAPs:
Nick Franklin

Brad Miller

Roenis Elias

 

Something horrible happened to Franklin and Elias.  Franklin was as sexy a blue-chipper as the M's have seen in a while, but it never materialized.  Elias was a bulldog with lots of Moxy, but fell off.  Miller, after looking like he'll never stick at SS or learn the OF, is forcing the Rays to play him somewhere because of his bat.


#16
Dag Gummit

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Closers make more money. We've watch no name guys excell for a time. We've watch otherwise great veterans fizzle out or get hurt. Not too many Riveras or Sutters around. Does the job itself burn guys out?

In general, it likely is in part the psychological pressure from the job, itself.  Not exclusively and not in all cases, mind you.  But I've come to the conclusion that the pressure does get to a lot of guys.  When you've got a job like closer/ reliever with so little sample, a single bad inning can easily smudge an entire, otherwise great season.

 

And then you add in the pressure of "Oh, hey.  a single bad inning costs my team the game."

 

And even then, you can add the playoff/ late-season pressure of "Oh, hey.  A single, solitary meh pitch can cost my team the title"

 

Case in point:  Brad Lidge was death to hitters in '04 and '05.  He was so ridiculously good in '04, the Astros traded their other elite reliever and fixated closer to acquire Beltran and move Lidge to closer.  In the '05 ALCS, however, he faced off against prime Albert Pujols and lost.  And boy, did he lose.  He was never the same again.  He'd set the MLB record for K/9 in '04 and nearly matched it in '05.  His BB/9 was considerably better than average.  He was lights out over 164 2/3 MLB innings.  After that one slider on the outer third, thigh high to the worst possible player to throw a not-horrible, but-still-not-good pitch to, he was broken.  It took 3 years and a new team for him to approach his old self.  And then what happened when he faltered just once again?  He was completely broken and could never be trusted again.

 

Baseball as a sport is incredibly uncontrollable.  It may be the closest thing in sports to going deep-sea fishing in a 2-man canoe with only line and hooks (no poles or nets) in shark-infested water.  The odds of losing an arm or your life to your own livelihood aren't there, but it's still has this constant suspense that "everything" can fall apart at any time and you have about a 25-90% chance of that happening.

 

That game Diaz single-handedly lost for the M's (his -.919 WPA one) has broken him psychologically.  It'll take a pretty doggone good sports psychologist/ "pitching coach" to fix him.  This is the norm for closers.  I'm certain everyone here who's play fantasy in the past agrees with that.


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AAPs:

Herschel Mack Just call me 'Boog' Powell IV has just been promoted to The Show for the first time and is hoping to stick around for a couple dozen years or so.

Joe Snake Eyes Wieland has been a mid-K, super-low-BB, Groundball machine in the minors and has a ~90 mph FB.  With his potential for masterful zone control, he's looking like the textbook Dipoto-type SP.

 

 

Gone, but not forgotten AAPs:
Nick Franklin

Brad Miller

Roenis Elias

 

Something horrible happened to Franklin and Elias.  Franklin was as sexy a blue-chipper as the M's have seen in a while, but it never materialized.  Elias was a bulldog with lots of Moxy, but fell off.  Miller, after looking like he'll never stick at SS or learn the OF, is forcing the Rays to play him somewhere because of his bat.


#17
BattingPractice

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Watching Diaz in the outfield during batting practice after his demotion it was obvious they are tweaking his mechanics. He was working on bringing his knee straight up rather than up and back on every ball he threw. He was having some discussion about such with his usual group of pitchers while shagging balls. It would appear that they are trying to simplify his motion and make it easier to repeat.

 

Mostly specualtion on my part as I can not really hear the conversations but I could see him slow down his motion and exagerate certain parts of it. It will be interesting to see a before and after the next time he pitches.


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#18
Dag Gummit

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The drop in velocity and the command issues following inning multiple high intensity, adrenaline pumping outings in May can't be dismissed.

Well, there's a problem, Doc.  His velocity hasn't actually dropped over the season; certainly not anything out of the norm of him from last year from what I can see (perhaps I don't know enough to properly interpret the data).  Yes, his command has been atrocious, but there's just as much or more history of that happening for predominately psychological reasons as it is for purely/ mostly physical.  I don't know about others, but I refuse to dismiss one potential cause for another at this point.


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AAPs:

Herschel Mack Just call me 'Boog' Powell IV has just been promoted to The Show for the first time and is hoping to stick around for a couple dozen years or so.

Joe Snake Eyes Wieland has been a mid-K, super-low-BB, Groundball machine in the minors and has a ~90 mph FB.  With his potential for masterful zone control, he's looking like the textbook Dipoto-type SP.

 

 

Gone, but not forgotten AAPs:
Nick Franklin

Brad Miller

Roenis Elias

 

Something horrible happened to Franklin and Elias.  Franklin was as sexy a blue-chipper as the M's have seen in a while, but it never materialized.  Elias was a bulldog with lots of Moxy, but fell off.  Miller, after looking like he'll never stick at SS or learn the OF, is forcing the Rays to play him somewhere because of his bat.


#19
DocMilo

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Well, there's a problem, Doc.  His velocity hasn't actually dropped over the season; certainly not anything out of the norm of him from last year from what I can see (perhaps I don't know enough to properly interpret the data).  Yes, his command has been atrocious, but there's just as much or more history of that happening for predominately psychological reasons as it is for purely/ mostly physical.  I don't know about others, but I refuse to dismiss one potential cause for another at this point.

 

Hope I'm wrong.


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#20
Señor Octobre

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Velocity can drop when you get under it for lack of a better word. Yes oversimplified, but usually caused by overthrowing or rushing to the plate. It didnt work so Ill throw harder and harder. Too much pelotas? Too young? Rushed to the show? Over used in 2016 out of neccesity? Remember last year the ball came out effortlessly and exploded? They maybe simplifying it to provide check points for Diaz to fix himself on the fly and easier to repeat.

Perhaps not the same but in golf, you hit down on the ball it must go up and in volleyball you hit the ball high as possible, it must go down.

Edited by Señor Octobre, 18 May 2017 - 07:49 PM.

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Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

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