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Michael Bourn


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#1
Lonnie

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The Mariners have been linked to Michael Bourn for the last ten thousand years or so, so maybe it might prove to be beneficial to take a closer look at this lifetime NLer.

Let's Rock!

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What we know

Michael Ray Bourn

Position: Centerfielder
Bats: Left, Throws: Right
Height: 5' 11", Weight: 180 lb.

Born: December 27, 1982 in Houston, TX

Career Slashline: .272/.339/.365/.704
Career slashline against righties: .281/.350/.376/.727
Career slashline against lefites: .249/.306/.336/.642
Career slashline at home (Philly, Houston, and Atlanta): .279/.346/.374/.720
Career Slashline on the road (NL): .266/.331/.357/.688

Over his career (7 seasons), Bourn has hit:
- 22 homeruns
- 125 doubles
- 45 triples

Also, Bourn has:
- Struckout 679 times
- Walked 296 times

On-base, Bourn has:
- Stolen 276 bases
- Been caught stealing 64 times

Annual average, Ethier can be expected to:
- Appear in 124.43 games
- Have 481 plate appearances
- Collect 117 hits
- Crank 3.14 homeruns
- Smack 18 doubles
- Luck into 6.43 triples
- Get rung up (K) 97 times
- Take a free pass (BB) 42 times

Contract status: Free Agent. Signing Bourn will cost the signing team their 2013 1st round draft pick unless it is protected. Bourn played for $6.845M in 2012.

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What does all of that tell us/me/whatever?

Where to start...

As with Ethier, here is what can be taken for granted from looking at the data above.
- Lefty bat will play better in Safeco
- Even though Bourn is 30 years old, his type of skillset ages better than others, so it is conceivable that he can maintain this level of production for another 2-3 years. Maybe...
- "OK" body of work over the last 7 years in the National League.
- Considerable lefty-righty split.
- Marginal road/home splits.
- No freakin' power to speak of.
- Although 124 odd games falls quite a bit short of a full season, during the last three seasons Bourn has played in 141, 158, and 155 games, so durability is not an issue.
- Career annual average strikeout rate of 20% makes me a bit queesy.
- Career annual average walk rate of 8.73% does not give me a good feeling either, but as a comparison here is Ichiro's average walk rate: %5.94.
- Career annual average batting eye of .433 (BB/K) tells me that Bourn isn't exactly a free swinger, but he is not a maven of patience either.
- Bourn's homeruns scream "Punch and Judy", and his low doubles numbers puts an exclamation point on the topic.

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Pulling it all together

Lefty bat at Safeco Field... blah blah blah.

Speed players tend to have longer careers than plodding sluggers, so the fact that Bourn is 30 really doesn't worry me too much. His speed will hold out for a few more years, and his whole game is predicated on it.

With offense down all around the world, Bourn's performance numbers look decent, but they still fill me with a sense of foreboding of the crash to come.

No power, all speed. Haven't we dance to that tune sometime before?

Let's take Bourn down to his barebones skill set. His #1 tool is his speed, which he utilizes on the basepaths and in the outfield where he has shown to be a top tier centerfielder. Without his speed, Bourn would be... bagging groceries.

There really isn't much more to know about Michael Bourn beyond what you see here. He has made a goodly amount of money based on getting the most out of a limited toolbox, and for that I admire him.

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[b]Summary

The big question that everyone should be asking themselves and anyone else who gives a crap is why are the Mariners interested in Michael Bourn? With a limited skillset, and Scott Boras as his agent, it would seem that it would be in the Mariners best interest to spend more quality time looking at other players. The problem though is that Bourn has one skill the the Mariners are in need of. As of right now, there is not a single player who profiles as a legitimate leadoff hitter.

During the 2012 season, once Ichiro was shipped out to the Yankers, Dustin Ackley took over the leadoff hitter duties, and fell flat on his face. Ackley's OBP of .296 does not give me a lot of faith, and until I see some drastic changes I really don't see myself gaining any more faith.

Bourn is not the penultimate leadoff hitter. In fact, as a leadoff hitter Michael Bourn leaves a lot to be desired. His patience at the plate is not conducive to a high on base percentage, and he doesn't hit enough to overcome his seemingly unwillingness to take a walk.

As I stated above, in 2012 Bourn was paid $6.845M, and after a modestly successful contract year, Bourn is no doubt looking to parlay that into a big payday. The problem though is that he is just not worth it. I cannot see, and in fact I refuse to see, Michael Bourn getting paid more than $7.0M a year on a 3 year contract. I really, REALLY don't want to see the Mariners make as big of a mistake as the Nationals did when they handed that big stupid contract to Jayson Werth (7 years X $126M). That would be insanity.
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#2
DocMilo

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The big question that everyone should be asking themselves and anyone else who gives a crap is why are the Mariners interested in Michael Bourn? With a limited skillset, and Scott Boras as his agent, it would seem that it would be in the Mariners best interest to spend more quality time looking at other players. The problem though is that Bourn has one skill the the Mariners are in need of. As of right now, there is not a single player who profiles as a legitimate leadoff hitter.

Where have I heard the saying before, you only lead off once? Well, that's not entirely sure, because you can lead off many innings of a game. Still, Bourn screwed the pooch when he didn't accept his qualifying offer. He'll be lucky to get $13 million for 2 years. If the M's trade Gutierrez, I can see bringing Bourn on for a 1 year contract. Guti is under contract and he's going to show up and be the every day center fielder. There is zero reason for Mr. Bourn.
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#3
CrustyJuggler

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Seattle not being in the market for a center fielder kind of makes it a bad fit from every angle. Especially with Boras wanting the moon.
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#4
Baseballfan

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It may be true that its a bad fit and he wants too much money. Yet, somehow the Mariners are still actively being linked to him in negotiations. If he signs, I don't see it as a 1 year low $$ deal. If it was, is that worth their first round pick?
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#5
Huindekmi

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*
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The Mariners themselves haven't been linked to Bourn. The M's front office is notoriously tight lipped - so, you wouldn't hear anything from them, even leaks, about negotiations with Bourn or anyone else until the deal is nearly finalized. Nor has Bourn been seen visiting Seattle. Nor have we heard leaked information from Bourn's agent.

Nope. All we've seen so far to "link" the M's to Bourn is the speculation from sportswriters. It goes something like this:
1) The M's need offense.
2) Of the remaining free agent position players, Michael Bourn is the highest rated* remaining player.
3) Ergo, Seattle is in negotiations with Bourn!

This is the same method that has linked the M's in trade talks to get Stanton. Jack Z calls Miami and asks "What would it take to get Stanton?". The reply is "More than you got... unless you're willing to give us Felix, eat most of his salary and throw in your top five prospects." Thanks but no thanks the two GMs say to one another. Later, a sportswriter asks whether Seattle contacted Miami about Stanton and is told, "Sure. They contacted us, but it went nowhere." And that gets turned into a week of speculative articles about the trade possibilities that don't actually exist.

In other words, I'll believe the M's are interested in Bourn when they sign him to a contract.

* Ratings determined by the same sportswriters and having no bearing on how each team actually rates the players themselves.
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Adopt-a-Players:
*new* Alex Jackson - Welcome aboard, AJaxx!

2014 Hitting .289/.333/.500/.833 in Peoria.

 

Forrest Snow - Working as a swingman and spot-starter for Tacoma.
2014 AAA/AA: 2-3, 2.35 ERA, 46 K, 12 BB, 1.065 WHIP - more to come!
2013 AAA/AA: 5-5, 2.96 ERA, 84 K, 28 BB, 1.085 WHIP

2012 AAA/AA: 5-9, 6.35 ERA, 99K, 67 BB, 1.674 WHIP


Gone But Not Forgotten (former adopt-a-players):
Eric Thames - Hitting .336/.423/.645/1.068 in Korea (304 plate appearances).
Matt Mangini - Out of baseball. Assistant coach for a high school.
Mike Morse - Hitting .273/.325/.472/.796 for the Giants. (sure would look good as our DH about now)
Jamal Strong - Let go after 2005. Played in the Yankees, Cubs and Braves systems. Now a regional scout for the Cards.


Updated: 06/27/2014


#6
kck9468

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I believe the M's could use a center fielder. Guti is not it. He's only been healthy one season........kinda.........he had knee problems in the latter part of 2009. Saunders covered Center very well last year but not to the caliber of a true center fielder. Definitely not to a healthy Guti type player.

Play Bourne in CF
Saunders in LF
Guti in RF

Bay/Wells/Carp/Ibanez (whoever wins roster spots in spring) Rotate through in RF/LF to spell those three. When Guti is healthy he's only going to play 5 days a week to try and keep him healthy. Bourne could use one day a week off as well as Saunders. When Bourne sits either Guti or Saunders can play CF in his place. The other days they cover the corners. Ibanez probably wont play in the field more than a few times a week. Between resting guti two days, and both Borne and Saunders 1 once a week that's 4 more days for a 4th outfielder to play.

Now with that being said I don't like Bourne and hope they don't sign him :D

I see another Figgins but this one plays CF :blink:
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#7
Jokestar57

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The more I think about it, the more I think that we need to sign Bourn. We need a leadoff hitter. We probably need a CF. Bourn fills both needs. He's also a decent hitter with extra base capabilities. We signed a MOTO bat, so I've been led to believe, in Morales. I expect (hope) to see Smoak improve his offensive production this year. Unless he has Billy Beane syndrome, there's no reason not to believe that Ackley is going to improve his offensive numbers, too. I mean, we gotta let the kids show us who has improved and who hasn't. We need to see how Seager, Montero and Saunders sre coming along. It won't be until next year before we realistically are going to compete for the division title, but we need to start filling in the pieces now. Bourn does that.

If you think that we're one MOTO bat short, you could be right, but we have one screaming up from the minors. Zunino is going to be a stud. We have our catcher for years to come. We have our #4 hitter for years to come. He'll be here, if not sometime in the coming year, by 2014.
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#8
M's Watcher

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I'm not a Bourn fan, but at the suggested price for Upton, paying Bourn and losing the #12 pick has to be an alternative. The longer Bourn sits, the lower his salary demands will go. Teams are just unwilling to jump at losing the compensatory pick. Bourn could end up a bargain.
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#9
DocMilo

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I'm not a Bourn fan, but at the suggested price for Upton, paying Bourn and losing the #12 pick has to be an alternative. The longer Bourn sits, the lower his salary demands will go. Teams are just unwilling to jump at losing the compensatory pick. Bourn could end up a bargain.

I would rather watch Casper Wells for 150 games than Michael Bourn. That's not my decision to make, but if it was...
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#10
Dag Gummit

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I seriously doubt it would happen, but If the M's were to sign Bourn, I would be most interested in either some kind of massively front-loaded or short contract that would allow us to ship him off for a MiL package more valuable than our #11 pick. Whether that be this year or in the coming couple years, it could potentially be worth it.
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AAP Time:
Nick Franklin & Brad Miller - I'm calling it. By the time they retire, this graduated duo will break the MLB record for the most Double Plays turned as a team. That's what coming up together and being awesome together for your entire careers on the same team will do for ya.

Roenis Elias - LH SP that has thus passed his first "rough-road ahead" sniff test -- get AA hitters out with meh stuff. He isn't electric, but he's certainly interesting enough to keep an eye on and follow because he's only gotten better results while climbing the ladder.
 




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