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So What About Trading Felix


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Poll: Trade Felix? (33 member(s) have cast votes)

Do you favor trading Felix for sure fire players/prospects?

  1. Yes (10 votes [30.30%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 30.30%

  2. Yes, but...(please explain) (3 votes [9.09%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 9.09%

  3. No. Not now but (please explain) (3 votes [9.09%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 9.09%

  4. Hell no and stop asking. (17 votes [51.52%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 51.52%

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#21
DocMilo

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Rosenthal are whatever his name is must be a HUGE yankee fan as he has a severe hard on for trading Felix to the yanks for a bag of chips. Trading a superstar rarely works out well for the team trading said superstar. Prospects are just that, most don't pan out. If you trade Felix you better flat out rip off the other team, Yanks you want him, fine it'll cost you Cano, Granderson, + your top 3-4 prospects to start trade talks. Am I overvaluing Felix? damn right I am. But that's the price, if you dont like it, then go away.

One thing that irks me is the "fantasy baseball mentality" that fans and those in the so called sports press seem to suffer from, where prospects are severely overvalued.

Cano's making $14 million this year with a $15 million option for next year or a $2 million buyout. Cano is gone after next year if the Yanks trade him. Plus, how is he going to hit out of the new Yankee Stadium? .969 OPS in Yankee Stadium .857 out. That's nice, but then let's move him to Safeco for 81 games. Granderson hits. .860 at home and .854 on the road. Wowza. They both have a third more homers at home than on the raod. Granderson's contract is for $10 million this year and $13 million next year with a $2 million buyout.

With Cano and Granderson the M's have much better offense next year but the staff ace is Vargas or Millwood with Hultzen as the future and Walker and Paxton starting the year in the minors. Walker and Paxton will be liucky to throw 140 to 150 IP this year. Next year they'll both be throwing 175 to 180 tops. In 2014 When Paxton and Walker are ready to go.... Cano and Granderson are signing big contracts with the Yankees.

Edited by DocMilo, 23 June 2012 - 11:06 PM.

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#22
Schuxu

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If we trade him I dont want to trade him for prospects alone. I want a young hitter that already proved that he can hit in the majors.

But now is not the time. We don't know how our pitching prospects will pan out and we don't know yet which offensive positions we might have already fixed internally due to all the young guys currently playing. We can wait another year or two and then reevaluate which holes are still there or if we maybe have assembled a team which can push for a playoff spot. And in the latter case I sure as hell want to keep Felix.
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GMF @ the Spot
MC Adoptee Denny Almonte

#23
phredmojo

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If we trade him I dont want to trade him for prospects alone. I want a young hitter that already proved that he can hit in the majors.

But now is not the time. We don't know how our pitching prospects will pan out and we don't know yet which offensive positions we might have already fixed internally due to all the young guys currently playing. We can wait another year or two and then reevaluate which holes are still there or if we maybe have assembled a team which can push for a playoff spot. And in the latter case I sure as hell want to keep Felix.

but now is the time. yamauchi and especially larson need the extra money in their pockets right now lol

Edited by phredmojo, 24 June 2012 - 01:58 PM.

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RIP Ichidman51............say hello to wildman and Ray_Oyler_fan...you will be missed my friend

#24
M's Watcher

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Except that you gamble (big time) that Felix will sign another contract with the Mariners. Why is he going to sign with a losing team that has no real chance of winning? The chance of winning comes if you DO trade him for a sure fire offensive player and two high upside pitchers with another shiney piece thrown in. Somewhat like the Bedard/Jones trade, as was pointed out earlier.

The gamble of Felix not re-signing isn't my concern in 2012, though maybe when his contract is closer to running out. That's why I think it important to contend for a WS before then. Losing his salary so we can buy the other pieces won't work. FA hitters won't come here and Chowie will just pocket it. If Ichiro walks after 2012, Figgins is dumped, and Felix is traded, we'll likely field a $40-50M payroll in 2013. No chance that will contend.
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#25
55panhead

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In this last off season the Oakland A's traded their best players for prospects. They realized they couldn't contend now and traded relatively young quality players who were going to begin becoming expensive. They hope to move to San Jose in 2015 and are targeting that year to contend. They traded Trevor Cahill for Jarrod Parker, Ryan Cook, and Colin Cowgill. Parker is a stud and in his rookie year has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. Ryan Cook has been dominant and has become their new closer. Cowgill is nothing special, but is a serviceable utility OFer. They traded Gio Gonzalez and received Tom Milone, who has pitched very well for a rookie (4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), two very highly rated pitchers in Brad Peacock (his call up will be soon) and A J Cole, and a power hitting catcher, Derek Norris, who was recently called up, and just hit his first HR today. Finally the A's traded their closer Andrew Bailey for Josh Reddick, OF. Reddick has 17 HRs and an OPS of .874.

The A's threw in the towel and traded their best players away. How's that working out for them? They are currently 35 and 38 and are 4.5 games ahead of the M's. Their major league club and minors are stocked with very good young arms, they've replaced their closer, they've added a very solid OF bat (.874), and their catcher of the future. They accomplished all of this AND they cut the payroll. Then with their savings, they signed the young power hitting speedster Yeonis Cespedes. I think things have worked out pretty well for the A's.

The A's traded their best players before they got expensive. I got news for those who abhor the idea of trading Felix, he is already expensive. I don't believe the Ms can contend in 2013 and 2014 may well be a stretch. Felix is signed through 2014 and unless the Ms turn things around he'll likely not resign, and If he does resign, what would be the cost?

Much was written in the offseason about a potential regional TV contract that could come into play in 2015, which would dramatically increase their revenues much like the new contracts did for Texas and Anaheim. If we are not competing in the next two years, and if we can not count on resigning Felix, then we should consider trading him now while we can get our best return. Let the new players develop along with our current young core, and then throw $$$ at the final pieces in 2015.

The Ms need to do their due diligence and test the market for Felix.
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#26
JOlderdude

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In this last off season the Oakland A's traded their best players for prospects. They realized they couldn't contend now and traded relatively young quality players who were going to begin becoming expensive. They hope to move to San Jose in 2015 and are targeting that year to contend. They traded Trevor Cahill for Jarrod Parker, Ryan Cook, and Colin Cowgill. Parker is a stud and in his rookie year has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. Ryan Cook has been dominant and has become their new closer. Cowgill is nothing special, but is a serviceable utility OFer. They traded Gio Gonzalez and received Tom Milone, who has pitched very well for a rookie (4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), two very highly rated pitchers in Brad Peacock (his call up will be soon) and A J Cole, and a power hitting catcher, Derek Norris, who was recently called up, and just hit his first HR today. Finally the A's traded their closer Andrew Bailey for Josh Reddick, OF. Reddick has 17 HRs and an OPS of .874.

The A's threw in the towel and traded their best players away. How's that working out for them? They are currently 35 and 38 and are 4.5 games ahead of the M's. Their major league club and minors are stocked with very good young arms, they've replaced their closer, they've added a very solid OF bat (.874), and their catcher of the future. They accomplished all of this AND they cut the payroll. Then with their savings, they signed the young power hitting speedster Yeonis Cespedes. I think things have worked out pretty well for the A's.

The A's traded their best players before they got expensive. I got news for those who abhor the idea of trading Felix, he is already expensive. I don't believe the Ms can contend in 2013 and 2014 may well be a stretch. Felix is signed through 2014 and unless the Ms turn things around he'll likely not resign, and If he does resign, what would be the cost?

Much was written in the offseason about a potential regional TV contract that could come into play in 2015, which would dramatically increase their revenues much like the new contracts did for Texas and Anaheim. If we are not competing in the next two years, and if we can not count on resigning Felix, then we should consider trading him now while we can get our best return. Let the new players develop along with our current young core, and then throw $$ at the final pieces in 2015.

The Ms need to do their due diligence and test the market for Felix.


That's what I'm talking about. What he said.
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#27
Toomany10pins

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In this last off season the Oakland A's traded their best players for prospects. They realized they couldn't contend now and traded relatively young quality players who were going to begin becoming expensive. They hope to move to San Jose in 2015 and are targeting that year to contend. They traded Trevor Cahill for Jarrod Parker, Ryan Cook, and Colin Cowgill. Parker is a stud and in his rookie year has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. Ryan Cook has been dominant and has become their new closer. Cowgill is nothing special, but is a serviceable utility OFer. They traded Gio Gonzalez and received Tom Milone, who has pitched very well for a rookie (4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), two very highly rated pitchers in Brad Peacock (his call up will be soon) and A J Cole, and a power hitting catcher, Derek Norris, who was recently called up, and just hit his first HR today. Finally the A's traded their closer Andrew Bailey for Josh Reddick, OF. Reddick has 17 HRs and an OPS of .874.

The A's threw in the towel and traded their best players away. How's that working out for them? They are currently 35 and 38 and are 4.5 games ahead of the M's. Their major league club and minors are stocked with very good young arms, they've replaced their closer, they've added a very solid OF bat (.874), and their catcher of the future. They accomplished all of this AND they cut the payroll. Then with their savings, they signed the young power hitting speedster Yeonis Cespedes. I think things have worked out pretty well for the A's.

The A's traded their best players before they got expensive. I got news for those who abhor the idea of trading Felix, he is already expensive. I don't believe the Ms can contend in 2013 and 2014 may well be a stretch. Felix is signed through 2014 and unless the Ms turn things around he'll likely not resign, and If he does resign, what would be the cost?

Much was written in the offseason about a potential regional TV contract that could come into play in 2015, which would dramatically increase their revenues much like the new contracts did for Texas and Anaheim. If we are not competing in the next two years, and if we can not count on resigning Felix, then we should consider trading him now while we can get our best return. Let the new players develop along with our current young core, and then throw $$$ at the final pieces in 2015.
The Ms need to do their due diligence and test the market for Felix.

Larry Stone has an article in today's Seattle Times going over recent trades of superstar pitchers. It doesn't validate the "trade superstar pitchers for prospects" philosophy. Basically the team trading said superstar pitcher pretty much gets fleeced by the bigger market club. If recent history is an indicator, trading your stud pitcher for prospects is foolish, and may work in fantasy baseball, but in today's MLB, not so much.
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#28
55panhead

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Larry Stone has an article in today's Seattle Times going over recent trades of superstar pitchers. It doesn't validate the "trade superstar pitchers for prospects" philosophy. Basically the team trading said superstar pitcher pretty much gets fleeced by the bigger market club. If recent history is an indicator, trading your stud pitcher for prospects is foolish, and may work in fantasy baseball, but in today's MLB, not so much.


Uhh, I don't think what Oakland did this offseason had anything to do with fantasy. In yesterday's Seattle Times article that you referenced above, Larry Stone uses the trade examples of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabithia, and Johan Santana to prove his point that trading superstar pitchers brings poor returns. All four of those trades involved pitchers that were rentals, who had 1/2 of a year left on their contracts. There is a HUGE difference in the return for a superstar pitcher with 2 and 1/2 years on his contract, and the return for a half season rental. Larry Stone loses a lot of credibility by trying to compare the trading of half season rentals to the trading of Felix and his 2 and a half year contract.

That brings up another point. Should we hold on to Felix until the summer of 2014 and trade him then, we won't get much for him. Just ask Larry Stone. The longer the Ms hold onto Felix, the less they'll get in return. Tick. Tick. Tick.
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#29
DocMilo

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In this last off season the Oakland A's traded their best players for prospects.... The Ms need to do their due diligence and test the market for Felix.

Beane made some good trades. He may have traded his best pitcher, but did he trade Felix Hernandez? No. Do you think Beane would trade Felix if he could afford his contract? It's not about when players get expensive. It's when marginal players that can be replaced by good prospect get expensive. The M's can replace League and have with a cheaper player. He can go. Millwood is cheap. If you can get something shiney for him? Do it. But don't just trade him because he's a vet. As Jack always says... If it makes the team better now and in the future, I'll do it.

The M's aren't hurting for money. When it's time to spend, I believe they will.

Edited by DocMilo, 24 June 2012 - 07:13 PM.

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#30
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I think the M's are little pawn heavy right now. And It's possible to over pack talent And we all know that The M's have already decided to build around Felix.. So all of this is irrelevant poppycock.


However. the minors are pitching heavy right now, at least when talking about top 25 talent. If the team could snag a trio of decent pitchers from team(s) that will gladly pay Tuesday for what they get today. Then why not? There's a smorgasbord of pitching talent out there.
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I'm not here to judge. I'm just pointing out all of the mistakes you're making.


#31
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Beane made some good trades. He may have traded his best pitcher, but did he trade Felix Hernandez? No. Do you think Beane would trade Felix if he could afford his contract? It's not about when players get expensive. It's when marginal players that can be replaced by good prospect get expensive. The M's can replace League and have with a cheaper player. He can go. Millwood is cheap. If you can get something shiney for him? Do it. But don't just trade him because he's a vet. As Jack always says... If it makes the team better now and in the future, I'll do it.

The M's aren't hurting for money. When it's time to spend, I believe they will.


"He may have traded his best pitcher, but did he trade Felix Hernandez?"

Billy Beane traded a pitcher who this year has been far better than Felix. Gio Gonzalez has an ERA of 2.55, a WHIP of 1.05 and has 101 Ks in only 85 innings. Compare that to Felix's ERA of 3.36, a WHIP of 1.27 and 101 Ks in 102 innings. Both pitchers are 26. What makes Felix so special that he is untradeable? I have no doubt that Beane would have traded Felix knowing the team would not compete in the next couple of years. It is not about whether the Ms can afford Felix's contract, It is about whether the Ms can compete before his contract is up.
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#32
lisa mariner

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Rosenthal brings up trading Felix EVERY year - usually to the Yanks ... March 2011

Except that you gamble (big time) that Felix will sign another contract with the Mariners. Why is he going to sign with a losing team that has no real chance of winning? The chance of winning comes if you DO trade him for a sure fire offensive player and two high upside pitchers with another shiney piece thrown in. Somewhat like the Bedard/Jones trade, as was pointed out earlier.

Because he's done it before? If you take him at his word (he's not yet given us a reason to do otherwise) he loves the city, the org and the team and wants to be part of bringing a championship here ... with the "ones that brung him", so to speak. Also, seems to me, that the team has a MUCH better chance of winning in the near future than it did at the time he signed his last contract. I disagree that the chance of winning increases by trading him - more on that below...


If we trade him I dont want to trade him for prospects alone. I want a young hitter that already proved that he can hit in the majors.

But now is not the time. We don't know how our pitching prospects will pan out and we don't know yet which offensive positions we might have already fixed internally due to all the young guys currently playing. We can wait another year or two and then reevaluate which holes are still there or if we maybe have assembled a team which can push for a playoff spot. And in the latter case I sure as hell want to keep Felix.

Spot on.
* The M's are rebuilding, not demolishing.
* Felix is the type of generational pitcher you can build around.
* Is he expensive? Yeah - you don't get great for a song.
* AND, he's still young AND durable!

Something I think gets overlooked is Felix's intangible value to this team...
especially in it's current state, with so many young and up-coming arms. Felix has grown up in this organization and has the chance to share his learnings and experience with other pitchers that are doing the same. He has the rare, combined attributes of being young enough for them to relate to and old enough for them to respect.

So anyway, my short answer is: Hell no and stop asking.

:)

Edited by lisa mariner, 24 June 2012 - 08:26 PM.

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#33
Vidya

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So anyway, my short answer is: Hell no and stop asking.

:)

Mine is, "Are you nuts?" but I like yours better.

Trading Felix would send absolutely the wrong signal to the players currently on the team. Instead of making the team better, it would make them worse. The offense I've been watching lately could be better, but it is far from inept. We don't need to trade Felix for a MOTO bat, we'll develop our own.

"Free up money to get someone really good." That's where my "Are you nuts" comment comes in. I don't see how we get someone better than Felix for the hometown contract he would sign with the Mariners.

My best comparison is the trading of Randy Johnson. Randy wanted out of town, and Felix doesn't. That's the biggest difference. What if the Mariners still had Randy in 2001? I believe we would be talking about a team that has already won a World Series, instead of one that hasn't.

Other than the obvious deals for players like League and Millwood I don't see the Mariners making much of a move between now and August. It's OK to speculate on deals no matter how crazy that speculation is, but it's also OK to bring some reality to the discussion.
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My 2014 AAP's:
James Jones, Rainiers outfielder extraordinaire.

Ji-Man Choi, Rainiers slugging first baseman.

Carson Smith, Rainiers bullpen.

Logan Kensing, Rainiers bullpen.

Jesus Montero, trimmed down and ready to go.

Sorry, Ji-Man, but really? Maybe when you get off the restricted list, Montero will have been promoted. 

Carson is doing a fine job, but Logan has been dominant and deserves recognition.


#34
55panhead

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Trading Felix would send absolutely the wrong signal to the players currently on the team. Instead of making the team better, it would make them worse. The offense I've been watching lately could be better, but it is far from inept. We don't need to trade Felix for a MOTO bat, we'll develop our own.

Oakland trades their top two pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill, and their closer Andrew Bailey, and the returns have made them better not worse. They publicly said "we will not compete till 2015" That message didn't seem to send the wrong signal to their team. I daresay the Oakland moves leapfrogged the As over the Ms in their rebuilding efforts. The As offseason moves gave them SIX current major league players with upside and two very good prospects, one of them major league ready

Josh Reddick OF 17 HRs 874 .OPS
Yeonis Cespedes OF .813 OPS
Derek Norris always a top catching prospect with minor league career OPS of .855
Jarrod Parker 2.70 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Tom Milone 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Ryan Cook closer with a 1.71 ERA and 0.98 WHIP

That is SIX players in the majors all performing very well, all young, and with upside. But wait there is more.

Brad Peaccock #36 on Baseball America's top 100, He is near a call up.
A.J Cole #57 57 on Baseball America's top 100 currently in high A

Oakland trading those three pitchers and signing Cespedes has fast forwarded their rebuild. They are playing better ball than the Ms and have laid a great foundation going forward.

Now, what have the Ms done with Felix on the team? Their combined record with Felix is 540-668, with two winning seasons, and zero playoffs appearances. Most of those years Felix was inexpensive and therefore potentially enabled the Ms to surround him with more talent. Felix was worth his weight in gold during his pre-arbitration and early arbitration years, but the Ms couldn't win during his valuable years. He is no longer inexpensive and pretty much costs market value. It takes more than one player to create a competitive team and we don't have the complimentary pieces to win with Felix. He is our only piece that we can truly trade for value. In the current Safeco configuration the Ms will have a difficult time attracting free agent bats, but should be able to attract arms. If the price is right (big IF I realize) consider trading Felix for bats and go to the FA market for arms.

To consider Felix untouchable is very shortsighted IMO.

Edited by Huindekmi, 25 June 2012 - 07:16 AM.

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#35
Sandy - Raleigh

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2011:
Seattle offense: 82 OPS+ (3 players over 30 played 114+ games)
Oakland offense: 88 OPS+ (4 players over 30 played 136+ games)

2012:
Seattle offense: 92 OPS+ (3 players over 30 still getting significant PT ... but two are guaranteed gone in 2013 ... and the third is probably gone)
Oakland offense: 86 OPS+ (3 players over 30 still getting significant PT .. (one was emergency fill-in due to Feb injury to Sizemore)

The simple truth is that Seattle was simply FAR better off than Oakland in terms of prospect DEPTH when Oakland was opting to sell (still cheap, soon-to-be-expensive) pitching talent for prospects.

Basically, Z has done a fantastic job of turning a laughingstock farm system into a monster in three seasons. So, there are multiple options for lineup juggling and fixing issues from WITHIN when something doesn't go just right. (Hypothetical: Smoak fails ... Ackley moves to 1B ... and Franklin can move to 2B ... and the club only needs to hunt for a SS on the open market).

Carp is still on the mend ... but with Guti and Saunders and Casper *ALL* hitting, the club has depth DESPITE an injury to their best hitter from 2012.

Just think about that a second. The Ms lost their BEST hitter (by OPS) to injury *AND* the original "build around" guy ... but were NOT forced to pick up an FA like Inge (or Langerhans or Hanahan or Endy Chavez) ... instead ... they filled from within ... and DESPITE major injuries, DESPITE the veterans all having sub-par years, and DESPITE the #1 prospects not blossoming quickly ... the team OPS+ is 10 points higher this season.

The Ms don't need to trade away Felix ... because *enough* hitting is ****ALREADY**** under club control for the next two seasons. The problem for the club this year has NOT been hitting. The 92 OPS+ is 6 points higher than the team 86 ERA+. The club is tied for 7th in runs scored this year in the AL ... but ranks 12th in runs allowed.

Does the offense still have work to do? Absolutely. But, most of the bodies it needs, it already has. It's just a matter of getting them the PT so the club can continue the development process and identify the successes and write off the failures. Getting MORE prospects doesn't help much of anything.

But honestly ... Z has *ALREADY* done what is being suggested. Only, he sold Pineda and Fister in order to get Montero and Furbush and Casper and Noesi. And while Noesi isn't the most popular guy at the moment, that's three solid MLB players ALREADY ... and except for Casper they're all still in the getting their feet wet stages of their MLB experience. Noesi could easily develop into Vargas++. Erasmo is getting his first taste. Hultzen is not far away.

=======

Hey ... I get that when you're 31-43, it doesn't *feel* like the club is making progress. But, no matter how much sex they have, nine men and nine women cannot produce a baby in one month. Some things take time ... and most of the best things in life take time and hard work. Z has ALREADY done most of the heavy lifting. A month from now ... maybe two ... when a couple of the young arms come around ... when Carp is healthy ... when Olivo is as much an afterthought as Figgins ... THIS team could become a real force without adding anyone the club doesn't already have control of.
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Age 25 - RH - (2B/UT) - (as of 8/19/2014)
Stefen Romero - mnrs - 1547-PA; 85-2B; 60-HR; 271-RBI; 36-SB; 21-CS; 96-BB; 250-K; .311/.361/.523 -- .884
MAJORS - 180-PA; 6-2B; 2-3B; 3-HR; 11-RBI; 0-SB; 3-CS; 4-BB; 46-K; .196/.236/.310 -- .545

Age 23 - LH - (LF) - (as of 8/19/2014)
Dario Pizzano - 2014 - 451-PA; 30-2B; 11-HR; 71-RBI; 1-SB; 1-CS; 64-BB; 49-K; .245/.357/.445 -- .802 (A+/AA)
Dario Pizzano - mnrs - 1232-PA; 88-2B; 23-HR; 170-RBI; 12-SB; 5-CS; 155-BB; 134-K; .296/.389/.469 -- .858

Age 23 - RH - (CF) - (as of 8/19/2014)
Jabari Henry - 2014 - 473-PA; 24-2B; 28-HR; 92-RBI; 6-SB; 8-CS; 63-BB; 99-K; .294/.400/.585 -- .986 (A+)
Jabari Henry - mnrs - 1156-PA; 62-2B; 47-HR; 191-RBI; 20-SB; 17-CS; 155-BB; 219-K; .276/.381/.508 -- .888

Age 24 - RH - (OF) - (as of 8/19/2014)
Jabari Blash - 2014 - 299-PA; 14-2B; 0-3B; 17-HR; 57-RBI; 6-SB; 2-CS; 39-BB; 81-K; .228/.351/.492 -- .843 (AA/AAA)
Jabari Blash - mnrs - 1740-PA; 80-2B; 13-3B; 76-HR; 257-RBI; 50-SB; 24-CS; 238-BB; 480-K; .254/.371/.484 -- .855

#36
muddyfrogwater

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Mine is, "Are you nuts?" but I like yours better.

Trading Felix would send absolutely the wrong signal to the players currently on the team. Instead of making the team better, it would make them worse. The offense I've been watching lately could be better, but it is far from inept. We don't need to trade Felix for a MOTO bat, we'll develop our own.

"Free up money to get someone really good." That's where my "Are you nuts" comment comes in. I don't see how we get someone better than Felix for the hometown contract he would sign with the Mariners.

we don't really need somone as good as Felix. 6 WAR pitchers are great. Two 4 WAR pitchers at half the cost are even better. Chris Sale, Gio Gonzalez, R.A. Dickey, Matt Harrison, Brandon Morrow, Doug Fister ...etc. The list goes on and on.
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I'm not here to judge. I'm just pointing out all of the mistakes you're making.


#37
Huindekmi

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There seems to be a lot of posts in the "WWBBD" genre. That's "What Would Billy Beane Do?"

So, why not look at what Billy Beane did? Despite the near silence on the subject in Moneyball (The Movie), the strength of the early 2000's A's was pitching. Remember the "Big Three" - the starting pitching combo of Hudson, Mulder and Zito? That's what made Oakland great. Plus the team had a pretty strong farm system. So, with three ace pitchers, all heading towards being too expensive, and a bunch of young, promising arms in the high minors, what did Beane do?

After 2004, Mark Mulder was getting expensive and had one year left on his contract. During the offseason, he was traded to the Cardinals for Daric Barton, Kiko Calero and Dan Haren.
  • Barton is still their starting 1B, but he's been average at best. In his best season, he ALMOST had an .800 OPS. This season, he's hitting .198/.325/.283/.608, which is an improvement over the mess he put together last season.
  • Calero was a serviceable reliever for three seasons.
  • Haren stepped right in to the slot vacated by Mulder and was a great pitcher for three seasons with Oakland. Then he got expensive and was traded for Brett Anderson (OK), Chris Carter (Bust), Aaron Cunningham (below avg utility player), Dana Eveland (Bust), Carlos Gonzalez (flipped with other pieces to get the Matt Holiday rental) and Greg Smith (same as Gonzalez, but Gonzalez was actually worth something).

After 2004, Tim Hudson was ALSO getting expensive and had a year left on his contract. He was traded to the Braves for a steaming pile of garbage.
  • Juan Cruz had one crappy (7.44 ERA) season with Oakland, then traded for Brad Halsey, who was just as bad.
  • Dan Meyer had two crappy (7.98 ERA) seasons with Oakland and was released.
  • Charles Thomas had one crappy season (.109/.255/.109/.363) with Oakland, was traded for JD Closser, and neither player had an At Bat in the majors again.

Barry Zito had one more contract year than Hudson and Mulder. For whatever reason, Beane chose to keep Zito all the way to free agency. 2005 and 2006 were both good years for him, notching 30 wins and an ERA+ of 114 over the span. We all know what happened next. The M's (luckily) got outbid for his services and Zito went on to a massively overpaid contract with the Giants.

Then there's Rich Harden - the reason why Beane felt secure in trading off some of his league-best stating rotation. In 2004, Harden had started over 30 games with an ERA+ of 114. He was cheap. He was talented. There was no reason not to send Hudson elsewhere when you've got a guy like that to replace him. Now... the rest of the story. OK, you already know the rest of the story. Despite a plethora of talent, Harden couldn't stay healthy. He started 32 games over the next three seasons. When he pitched, he was great. When he didn't pitch, he was Dana Eveland or Joe Blanton or Dallas Braden or some other scrub fill-in. Eventually, he was traded with Chad Gaudin for:
  • Josh Donaldson (Bust)
  • Sean Gallagher (Bust)
  • Matt Murton (bust)
  • Eric Patterson (bust).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

There you go. Five Ace-level pitchers who went through the Billy Beane process.
- One traded for a bunch of good to great pieces.
- Three traded for prospects who turned out to be nothing.
- One kept for two good seasons and lost to free agency.

So, what would Beane do with Felix? History tells us that Felix would likely be traded. History tells us that there's a 25% chance of getting something better in return and a 75% chance that the team downgrades in the process.
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Adopt-a-Players:
*new* Alex Jackson - Welcome aboard, AJaxx!

2014 Hitting .289/.333/.500/.833 in Peoria.

 

Forrest Snow - Working as a swingman and spot-starter for Tacoma.
2014 AAA/AA: 2-3, 2.35 ERA, 46 K, 12 BB, 1.065 WHIP - more to come!
2013 AAA/AA: 5-5, 2.96 ERA, 84 K, 28 BB, 1.085 WHIP

2012 AAA/AA: 5-9, 6.35 ERA, 99K, 67 BB, 1.674 WHIP


Gone But Not Forgotten (former adopt-a-players):
Eric Thames - Hitting .336/.423/.645/1.068 in Korea (304 plate appearances).
Matt Mangini - Out of baseball. Assistant coach for a high school.
Mike Morse - Hitting .273/.325/.472/.796 for the Giants. (sure would look good as our DH about now)
Jamal Strong - Let go after 2005. Played in the Yankees, Cubs and Braves systems. Now a regional scout for the Cards.


Updated: 06/27/2014


#38
muddyfrogwater

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Here's the problem. When I was growing up it wasn't the taste. It was the fun you had while drinking it.
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I'm not here to judge. I'm just pointing out all of the mistakes you're making.


#39
muddyfrogwater

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There seems to be a lot of posts in the "WWBBD" genre. That's "What Would Billy Beane Do?"

This particular process would yeild a much higher return because it involves a larger amount of capital. You still have the buying power after the trade and the process continues.

Speaking of Oakland, I can't blame the A's fans for running off. I sometimes scratch my head and wonder if the whole A's organization shouldn't be charged with having a one track mind. They've had the opportunity to shift gears and have failed to do so.
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I'm not here to judge. I'm just pointing out all of the mistakes you're making.


#40
55panhead

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2012:
Seattle offense: 92 OPS+ (3 players over 30 still getting significant PT ... but two are guaranteed gone in 2013 ... and the third is probably gone)
Oakland offense: 86 OPS+ (3 players over 30 still getting significant PT .. (one was emergency fill-in due to Feb injury to Sizemore)




I'm not sure how one configures OPS+. I've always assumed 100+ is league average. Anyway Oakland's OPS to date is .670 and the Mariners' is .676. I would expect their OPS+s to be closer together. Anyway Oakland ranks 28th and Seattle 27th in OPS. I wouldn't be very happy with either of those.
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