Jump to content

Welcome to Mariner Central
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. This message will be removed once you have signed in.
Login to Account Create an Account
Photo

NFL 2010


  • Please log in to reply
64 replies to this topic

#1
Pirata Morado

Pirata Morado
  • Members
  • 9,016 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Queretaro, Mexico
  • Interests:Statistics, Theatre, Alan Parsons music, Astronomy, and of course, Mariners Baseball.
You know me, I can't help it, I make stochastic models for a living.

This time I did a stoachastic model for the NFL.

How's the model built? It's based on 2009 data, for obivous reasons, and as the season develops I will update the model using 2010 data.

What does it simulate? It simulates the touchdowns + extra points + field goals + safeties each team will score on each game, thus obtaining the total points each team will score in each game.

How does it do it? Simple. Each team scored last year in several ways, rushing TD, passing TD, special teams TD, defensive TD, FG, Extra Points (2pt. conversion) and Safeties. Each team also allowed scores on each of these ways.

Let's look for instance at the Seahawks. They scored 7 rushing TD, 20 passing TD, 0 Special Teams TD, 3 Defensive TD, 24 Field Goals and 0 Safeties, while converting 100% of their Extra Points. So we can get gamely rates by simply dividing each of the above by 16 (total games). So the Seahawks scoring rates are the following:

Rush TD = 7 / 16 = 0.438
Pass TD = 1.25
ST TD = 0
Def TD = 0.188
FG = 1.5
Safety = 0

They also have some different rates but for their scoring allowed.

So I then combined the scoring rates of each team with the rival's allowing rates for each matchup.

For instance, the allowing Rush TD rate for the 49ers is = 0.75, so we can combine both like this: Seattle - SF Rush TD for Home Team = (0.438 + 0.75) / 2 = 0.594

So this value becomes the parameter for Rush TD for the Home team of next week's matchup between Seattle and SF.

I then simulate a Poisson distribution for each scoring type (RushTD, PassTD, STTD, DefTD, FG, Safety) using those combined parameters as the lambda of the Poisson distribution. This way, each team can only score 0 times, or once or twice, etc. according to the parameter on each scoring type.

For Extra Points the thing is different. I simluate a Binomial distribution using the total TD scored as "n" and the XP Made% as the "p".

Then I sum the total TD scored by team times 6, plus the Extra Points converted, plus the Safeties scored times 2 plus the Field Goals times 3 to get the final score of each team.

I simulated 5,000 times week 1, so I can get odds of winning for each match.

For instance, the 49ers - Seahawks game of next week has these odds:

49ers: 59.8%
Seahawks: 35.5%
Tie: 4.7%

What do you think?

Edited by Pirata Morado, 04 September 2010 - 09:48 AM.

  • 0

#2
Sancho Panza

Sancho Panza
  • Members
  • 2,092 posts
  • Gender:Male

For instance, the 49ers - Seahawks game of next week has these odds:

49ers: 59.8%
Seahawks: 35.5%
Tie: 4.7%

What do you think?

I think that if nothing has changed since last year? Bet on the 49ers.
  • 0
There are some people so addicted to exaggeration that they can't tell the truth without lying. - Josh Billings

#3
Pirata Morado

Pirata Morado
  • Members
  • 9,016 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Queretaro, Mexico
  • Interests:Statistics, Theatre, Alan Parsons music, Astronomy, and of course, Mariners Baseball.
Well, I actually pretend to simulate all season long and gamble on all games. What do you think?
  • 0

#4
Sancho Panza

Sancho Panza
  • Members
  • 2,092 posts
  • Gender:Male
Make sure you're in the black before you start and never bet the house! :D
  • 0
There are some people so addicted to exaggeration that they can't tell the truth without lying. - Josh Billings

#5
Señor Octobre

Señor Octobre

    Everett Booster Extrodinaire!

  • Home Run Boosters
  • 7,048 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:5 centavos
  • Interests:el médico está en

Well, I actually pretend to simulate all season long and gamble on all games. What do you think?

I pick chimp style every game, every week, and you pick your style every game, every week and we'll see what happens.
  • 0
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

DJ Petterson
Victor Sanchez
Luis Liberato

Greg Halman RIP

 http://compassrosy.com/<p> 

#6
Pirata Morado

Pirata Morado
  • Members
  • 9,016 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Queretaro, Mexico
  • Interests:Statistics, Theatre, Alan Parsons music, Astronomy, and of course, Mariners Baseball.

I pick chimp style every game, every week, and you pick your style every game, every week and we'll see what happens.

You're on!
  • 0

#7
Señor Octobre

Señor Octobre

    Everett Booster Extrodinaire!

  • Home Run Boosters
  • 7,048 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:5 centavos
  • Interests:el médico está en
I set up a yahoo NFL pick 'em league. I PM'ed you Pirata all the details. It's free. You just need a yahoo account and to go sign up. The numbers come out on Tuesday and they finalize on Thursdays. Don't forget to pick the thursday games and later in the season, the saturday games. in another yahoo group I'm in, I pick the whole season first and then I go back and edit my picks each week. This helps if you have a computer melt down or solar flares or you get drunk on saturday night and forget about them and sleep in.

I guess we could open this up to anyone else that wants to join the league. What do you think ?

Edited by senior octobre, 07 September 2010 - 03:43 AM.

  • 0
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

DJ Petterson
Victor Sanchez
Luis Liberato

Greg Halman RIP

 http://compassrosy.com/<p> 

#8
Señor Octobre

Señor Octobre

    Everett Booster Extrodinaire!

  • Home Run Boosters
  • 7,048 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:5 centavos
  • Interests:el médico está en
The Chimp will do his picks very soon for week one and will post them. In a prepared statement, he said he had to consult the zodiac, the moon signs, and the tide forecast, before doing his picks.
  • 0
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

DJ Petterson
Victor Sanchez
Luis Liberato

Greg Halman RIP

 http://compassrosy.com/<p> 

#9
Pirata Morado

Pirata Morado
  • Members
  • 9,016 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Queretaro, Mexico
  • Interests:Statistics, Theatre, Alan Parsons music, Astronomy, and of course, Mariners Baseball.

I set up a yahoo NFL pick 'em league. I PM'ed you Pirata all the details. It's free. You just need a yahoo account and to go sign up. The numbers come out on Tuesday and they finalize on Thursdays. Don't forget to pick the thursday games and later in the season, the saturday games. in another yahoo group I'm in, I pick the whole season first and then I go back and edit my picks each week. This helps if you have a computer melt down or solar flares or you get drunk on saturday night and forget about them and sleep in.

I guess we could open this up to anyone else that wants to join the league. What do you think ?

Yes please feel free to invite anyone who wants to join, the more the merrier! I already made my picks for week 1 based on my model, I will post them and my model outcome later on.
  • 0

#10
Señor Octobre

Señor Octobre

    Everett Booster Extrodinaire!

  • Home Run Boosters
  • 7,048 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:5 centavos
  • Interests:el médico está en

Yes please feel free to invite anyone who wants to join, the more the merrier! I already made my picks for week 1 based on my model, I will post them and my model outcome later on.

Anyone interested in joining the pick 'em for fun league, let me know. I'll PM you the link, password and all, if so interested. It's just for fun !
  • 0
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

DJ Petterson
Victor Sanchez
Luis Liberato

Greg Halman RIP

 http://compassrosy.com/<p> 

#11
Señor Octobre

Señor Octobre

    Everett Booster Extrodinaire!

  • Home Run Boosters
  • 7,048 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:5 centavos
  • Interests:el médico está en
The Chimp picks week one:

NO
MIA
DET
TENN
NEW ENG
CARO
ATL
CLEVE
JACK
HOUS
ARIZ
GB
SEA
DAL
NYJ
SAN DIEGO

I left out the number, which i'll add later.

Edited by senior octobre, 09 September 2010 - 04:05 AM.

  • 0
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

DJ Petterson
Victor Sanchez
Luis Liberato

Greg Halman RIP

 http://compassrosy.com/<p> 

#12
Pirata Morado

Pirata Morado
  • Members
  • 9,016 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Queretaro, Mexico
  • Interests:Statistics, Theatre, Alan Parsons music, Astronomy, and of course, Mariners Baseball.
The Model's week one picks:

New Orleans
Cleveland
Miami
New England
Indianapolis
Denver
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Carolina
Chicago
Arizona
Green Bay
San Francisco
Dallas
Baltimore
San Diego
  • 0

#13
Pirata Morado

Pirata Morado
  • Members
  • 9,016 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Queretaro, Mexico
  • Interests:Statistics, Theatre, Alan Parsons music, Astronomy, and of course, Mariners Baseball.
The chimp beat the model in week 1: 8 to 6.

It must be said that I wasn't aware that the Yahoo group had a line, this isn't an excuse I'll use those in the model for the following weeks. Rather, I think there were many surprises in week 1 like the Seahawks, Texans, Chiefs and Redskins all winning to supposedly better teams in 49ers, Colts, Chargers and Cowboys respectively.

Edited by Pirata Morado, 14 September 2010 - 09:36 AM.

  • 0

#14
Señor Octobre

Señor Octobre

    Everett Booster Extrodinaire!

  • Home Run Boosters
  • 7,048 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:5 centavos
  • Interests:el médico está en
I remember the Chiefs from when the Hawks played in the AFC West...at KC Chiefs was always a tough game, even when the Hawks were suppose to have the better team...how about those seahawks...?
  • 0
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

DJ Petterson
Victor Sanchez
Luis Liberato

Greg Halman RIP

 http://compassrosy.com/<p> 

#15
Pirata Morado

Pirata Morado
  • Members
  • 9,016 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Queretaro, Mexico
  • Interests:Statistics, Theatre, Alan Parsons music, Astronomy, and of course, Mariners Baseball.
The model picks for week 2, without line:

Green Bay,
Baltimore,
Pittsburgh,
Dallas,
Philadelphia,
Carolina,
Arizona,
Kansas City,
Washington,
Minnesota,
Seattle-Denver (no difference)
Oakland,
San Diego,
New England,
Indianapolis,
New Orleans,

the line inserts too much random noise and many games change dramatically, using lines these are the picks:

Buffalo,
Baltimore,
Pittsburgh,
Chicago,
Philadelphia,
Carolina,
Arizona,
Kansas City,
Washington,
Miami,
Seattle,
Oakland,
Jacksonville,
New England,
NY Giants,
New Orleans
  • 0

#16
Señor Octobre

Señor Octobre

    Everett Booster Extrodinaire!

  • Home Run Boosters
  • 7,048 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:5 centavos
  • Interests:el médico está en
The Chimp picks for Week Two

ARIZ
CINC
CLEVE
DAL
PHIL
GB
TENN
MIA
CARO
SEA
OAK
NYJ
SD
HOUS
INDY
SF
  • 0
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

DJ Petterson
Victor Sanchez
Luis Liberato

Greg Halman RIP

 http://compassrosy.com/<p> 

#17
Señor Octobre

Señor Octobre

    Everett Booster Extrodinaire!

  • Home Run Boosters
  • 7,048 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:5 centavos
  • Interests:el médico está en
The Chimp Picks for week Three

SF
DET
NE
ATL
TENN
TB
CARO
CLEVE
DAL
WASH
JACK
INDY
OAK
SEA
NYJ
GB

The Chimp went 7-8 in week two with a push. The Chimp leads in the early going but it's a long season and anything can and usually does happen in the NFL Season. You can make up or lose ground fast if you have it one way and the other guy has it the other way, which equates to a plus two.
  • 0
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

DJ Petterson
Victor Sanchez
Luis Liberato

Greg Halman RIP

 http://compassrosy.com/<p> 

#18
Pirata Morado

Pirata Morado
  • Members
  • 9,016 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Queretaro, Mexico
  • Interests:Statistics, Theatre, Alan Parsons music, Astronomy, and of course, Mariners Baseball.
The model picks for week 3:

KC
Min
NE
NO
Ten
Pit
Car
Cle
Dal
Was
Phi
Den
Ari
SD
NYJ
GB

I need to pick it up, or else...
  • 0

#19
Señor Octobre

Señor Octobre

    Everett Booster Extrodinaire!

  • Home Run Boosters
  • 7,048 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:5 centavos
  • Interests:el médico está en
The Chimp's picks for week four:

SF
BUFF
CLEVE
GB
DEN
SEA
NO
PITT
HOUS
INDI
PHIL
SD
CHIC
MIA

The chimp is still in the lead, by a little but as mentioned, anything can happen !
  • 0
Mariner Central Adopt-A-Players: 

DJ Petterson
Victor Sanchez
Luis Liberato

Greg Halman RIP

 http://compassrosy.com/<p> 

#20
Pirata Morado

Pirata Morado
  • Members
  • 9,016 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Queretaro, Mexico
  • Interests:Statistics, Theatre, Alan Parsons music, Astronomy, and of course, Mariners Baseball.
That's a very savvy chimp you got in there. 11 right in week 3? wow!

Model picks for week 4:

Atl
NYJ
Cin
GB
Ten
StL
NO
Pit
Oak
Ind
Phi
SD
Chi
NE
  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users